What to Expect: IU basketball travels to Purdue

Photos from IU basketball’s 72-67 win against Purdue at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall.

IU basketball is back on the road for a Friday primetime matchup against Purdue in Mackey Arena. The Hoosiers are coming off a 71-51 loss at Illinois on Sunday, while the Boilermakers fell to Michigan 91-80 on Tuesday in West Lafayette.

Friday’s game is set for an 8 p.m. ET tipoff on FOX:

With five regular-season games to go, IU basketball has work to do to return to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2023.

The Hoosiers, currently 17-8 and 8-7 in the Big Ten, likely need 20 regular-season wins to feel good about their chances for an at-large selection to next month’s tournament. Anything less than 20 wins could leave Indiana in need of Big Ten tournament wins or sweating out the Selection Show on Sunday, March 15.

Of the five games remaining, Friday’s tilt in West Lafayette is the toughest game on paper. KenPom has Indiana as the favorite in upcoming games against Northwestern and Minnesota in Bloomington and as an underdog against Purdue (by 11), Michigan State (by 2), and Ohio State (by 3).

The good news for the Hoosiers is they’ve already proven they can beat Purdue. Indiana beat the Boilermakers 72-67 in Bloomington on January 27 for its best win of the season to date. An upset on Friday would go a long way in locking up a March Madness bid.

THE FIRST MATCHUP

Rather than diving into Purdue’s personnel, we’ll review the first matchup ahead of the rematch of the first of IU’s three Big Ten double plays.

The victory against the Boilermakers in late January, Indiana’s fifth Big Ten win this season, was driven by Nick Dorn’s scoring, a strong effort on the glass and in the paint, Conor Enright’s point guard play and relatively strong 3-point shooting.

Dorn’s performance was notable in the first matchup as he scored 18 points and earned KenPom Game MVP honors in just his second start of the season. The 6-foot-7 junior went 4-for-9 on 3s to go along with three steals and two rebounds in 32 minutes.

In the paint, Purdue outscored Indiana 24-18 and only held an 11-to-10 advantage on second-chance points. Given the size of the Boilermaker frontcourt with Trey Kaufman-Renn, Oscar Cluff and Daniel Jacobsen, Purdue’s inability to take advantage in the paint and on the boards was a key storyline.

Enright logged all 40 minutes in the first meeting between the two rivals and remarkably did not commit a foul in the upset win for the Hoosiers. The senior point guard had eight assists and his 3-pointer from the left wing with 1:12 to play stretched IU’s lead to two possessions. He also connected on a pair of free throws with under 25 seconds left to seal the win.

Indiana’s 3-point shooting was also a significant factor in the late January matchup. The Hoosiers shot 8-for-20 on 3s in the first half, which helped build an 11-point lead at halftime. Indiana went 12-for-33 on 3s for the game, and Purdue was 7-for-20, giving the Hoosiers a 15-point advantage in points from behind the arc.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

Tempo-free stats Indiana-Purdue

All stats in the chart are for conference games only and updated through Tuesday’s games.

Purdue had been playing some of its best basketball of the season entering Tuesday’s game against Michigan, but the Wolverines overpowered the Boilermakers in a 91-80 win in Mackey Arena.

It wasn’t that Purdue didn’t play well in the loss, but the Wolverines are better and the current favorite to win the national championship. Expect the Boilermakers to shake off the loss and quickly regain their focus for Friday’s rematch.

Offensively, few teams operate as efficiently as the Boilermakers. In Big Ten play, Purdue boasts the Big Ten’s third-best offense. The Boilermakers are averaging 1.204 points per trip in league play, shooting 35.7 percent from 3-point range and 57.1 percent from 2-point range. They also do an excellent job of taking care of the ball with a turnover percentage of 12.5, the second-best mark in the conference.

Defensively, Purdue is elite on the defensive glass, defends well without fouling and is solid at forcing turnovers. Purdue’s rim protection isn’t great, as Big Ten opponents are shooting 54.6 percent on 2s. As in the first matchup, Indiana will need strong perimeter shooting to have a chance to win on Friday. Big Ten foes are shooting 35.7 percent on triples against Purdue through 15 league games.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection has Purdue by 11, with just a 17 percent chance of an IU victory and Bart Torvik favors Purdue by 10, with an 18 percent chance of an IU upset. Indiana hasn’t won in Mackey Arena since 2023, when Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer were freshmen in Purdue’s starting backcourt.

Indiana can expect to play in the toughest road environment of the season on Friday night. Mackey Arena offers an elite home-court advantage and the student section will be in top form for the rivalry matchup.

The Hoosiers face an uphill battle to pull off an upset in this matchup and while a loss won’t hurt Indiana’s resume, it will put even more pressure on the final four regular-season games.

See More: Commentary, Purdue Boilermakers