What to Expect: IU basketball travels to Michigan

IU basketball, currently on a three-game losing streak, hits the road tonight to take on No. 3 Michigan at the Crisler Center. The Wolverines, under second-year coach and IU graduate Dusty May, are 16-1 overall and 6-1 in Big Ten play.

Tonight’s game will tip at 7 p.m. ET on Peacock and NBC Sports Network:

Indiana, 12-3 and No. 25 in KenPom just 10 days ago, is now 12-6, close to falling out of the top 40 and is staring at a four-game losing streak.

The Hoosiers blew a 16-point second-half lead at home against Nebraska, saw a game tied at 53 at Michigan State turn into a 21-point loss and were beaten wire-to-wire by Iowa in Bloomington on Saturday.

In the shadow of IU football all season up until now, the spotlight will soon turn to Darian DeVries and the Hoosiers. A season once filled with hope seems unlikely to end with a March Madness berth based on recent performances. And a glance north to Ann Arbor to look at the job May has done with the Wolverines shows that a quick turnaround isn’t impossible in college hoops today.

That’s not to say DeVries won’t get the job done in Bloomington, but it doesn’t appear to be a quick fix. And Tuesday’s matchup against Michigan, a legit national championship contender, could offer a first-hand glimpse of just how far the Hoosiers have to go.

MEET THE WOLVERINES

Michigan’s 14-game winning streak to open the season was snapped on January 10 when the Wolverines were shocked by Wisconsin, 91-88, at the Crisler Center.

Michigan rebounded from the Wisconsin loss by sweeping a pair of games on the West Coast last Wednesday and Saturday against Washington and Oregon. Michigan has been far less dominant in its last four games, with a two-point win at Penn State, a 3-point loss to Wisconsin and a pair of 10-point wins against the Huskies and the Ducks.

The matchup against Indiana is the first on a three-game home stand that also features matchups against Ohio State and Nebraska.

A nine-man Michigan rotation is led by Big Ten player of the year candidate Yaxel Lendeborg, a UAB transfer who tested the NBA draft waters last spring before ultimately removing his name and enrolling in Ann Arbor.

The 6-foot-9 Lendeborg is one of the nation’s most versatile frontcourt pieces. He leads Michigan in scoring at 14.1 points per game, is second in rebounding at 7.1 per game and is second in assists at 3.1 per game. Lendeborg is shooting 67.1 percent on 2s, 34.2 percent on 3s and 87.3 percent from the free-throw line.

Yaxel Lendeborg shot chart.

(Shot chart via UMHoops.com)

Lendeborg is joined in the super-sized starting Michigan frontcourt by 6-foot-9 Morez Johnson Jr. and 7-foot-3 Aday Mara.

Johnson, a sophomore transfer from Illinois, is second on the team in scoring at 14 points per game and third in rebounding at 6.8 per game. He’s shooting 70.6 percent on 2s in Big Ten play and is 21-for-26 from the free-throw line.

The best way to limit Mara, a junior, is to foul him – the Hoosiers don’t have the depth to implement such a strategy – and hope he misses free throws. The 7-foot-3 transfer from UCLA and native of Spain shoots 70.4 percent on 2s and just 44.4 percent from the free-throw line. Mara averages 10.8 points, 7.2 rebounds and 2.6 blocks in 22.2 minutes per game.

Senior Will Tschetter, a holdover from the Juwan Howard era, comes off the bench and, at 6-foot-8, can stretch the floor. Tschetter is 16-for-46 on 3s this season, which is 34.8 percent. He’s only attempted 16 shots inside the 3-point line.

Michigan has a five-man backcourt with Elliot Cadeau and Nimari Burnett as the starters and LJ Cason, Roddy Gayle and Trey McKenney coming off the bench.

Cadeau, a 6-foot-1 transfer from North Carolina, is fourth in the Big Ten in assist rate and is shooting 41.2 percent on 3s, up from 33.7 percent last season for the Tar Heels.

Elliot Cadeau shot chart

Burnett, whose time in Ann Arbor began in Howard’s final season, is a 37.9 percent 3-point shooter and an efficient finisher. Burnett is shooting 66.7 percent on 2s and has one of the top 40 offensive ratings in the country.

Michigan’s guard depth is elite with Cason, a sophomore, McKenney, a freshman and Gayle, a senior.

The 6-foot-2 Cason is a 40 percent 3-point shooter, makes 57.8 percent of his 2s and has scored in double figures six times.

McKenney, a McDonald’s All-American, is a 6-foot-4 wing who is wired to score. He averages 9.8 points in 20.4 minutes per game off the bench while shooting 35.1 percent on 3s and 69.4 percent on 2s.

And Gayle, who began his career at Ohio State, has struggled with his perimeter shooting (28.9 percent), but does a solid job of finishing 2s (58.2 percent) and getting to the line. He’s 39-for-51 from the stripe this season and his 9.6 points per game are sixth on the team.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

(All national rankings in parentheses updated through Sunday’s games.)

Michigan tempo-free stats preview.

Michigan has the profile of a national title contender. The Wolverines are elite on both ends, ranking No. 2 on defense and No. 5 on offense per KenPom.

Michigan leads the country in 2-point field goal percentage at 63.9 and has the best 2-point field goal percentage defense at 40.3 percent. The presence of Lendeborg, Johnson and Mara all on the floor at once is just too much for most opponents to even compete with.

The Wolverines also do a good job of defending without fouling, with an opponent free-throw rate of just 27.4 percent. Michigan also ranks just outside the top 75 nationally in defensive rebounding percentage. Michigan doesn’t force many turnovers, but they don’t have to. Their size and athleticism are such that they can clamp down long enough in the half-court to put opponents on an island and force touch shots. It took Wisconsin making 15 3-pointers in Ann Arbor to knock them off and that was only a narrow 3-point win.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection has Michigan by 15, with only an 8 percent chance for IU to win. Bart Torvik has Michigan by 17 with a nine percent chance of a Hoosier victory.

Given IU’s recent play, it’ll be surprising if this game is close.

The Wolverines are superior across the board, are playing on their home court, and will be looking to show they’re capable of returning to their earlier-season form, which featured regular wins by 30 or more points.

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