What to Expect: IU basketball hosts Nebraska

Nebraska's Rienk Mast takes a shot.

IU basketball returns to Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Saturday afternoon to host unbeaten Nebraska. The Cornhuskers are 15-0, 4-0 in Big Ten play and ranked No. 10 in the latest Associated Press top 25 poll.

The Hoosiers and Cornhuskers will tip off at noon ET on BTN:

Indiana took care of business on Wednesday night with an 84-66 win against Maryland at the Xfinity Center. It was the first road win of the season for the Hoosiers, who are 3-1 in Big Ten play.

Up next: Unbeaten Nebraska. The surprise team in the Big Ten thus far, Fred Hoiberg’s Huskers are 15-0 and have road wins at Illinois and Ohio State. Dating back to last season, Nebraska has the nation’s longest winning streak at 19 games.

MEET THE CORNHUSKERS

There are two teams in the Big Ten with a higher 3-point volume than Indiana: Nebraska and Wisconsin. The Huskers are taking 50.4 percent of their field goal attempts from 3-point range, which is 14th nationally and score 38.2 percent of their points on 3s, which ranks 36th in the country.

Hoiberg runs an offense that spreads defenses out and generates plenty of clean looks from the perimeter.

But the Huskers have also proven they can win a grind-it-out game, which they did in their last home game, a 58-56 triumph against Michigan State on Jan. 2. Nebraska ranks 16th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.

The scout on Nebraska begins with big man Rienk Mast, a 6-foot-10 redshirt senior who sat out last season after knee surgery. The Netherlands native leads the team in scoring at 16.3 points per game and in rebounding at 6.6 per game. He’s third in assists with three per game. Mast is attempting 5.3 3-pointers per game and connecting at a 37.5 percent clip while also shooting 58 percent on 2s and 81.2 percent from the free throw line.

He’s joined in the starting lineup by 6-foot-10 junior Berke Buyuktuncel, with redshirt freshman Braden Frager providing a scoring punch off the bench.

Buyuktuncel averages 7.9 points and 6.4 rebounds in 23.6 minutes per game and is shooting 60.4 percent from 2-point range.

But Frager has made the bigger impact through 15 games and is coming off a 15-point effort at Ohio State, which earned him KenPom Game MVP honors for the third time this season. A native of Lincoln, the 6-foot-7 freshman is aggressive at the rim and is 38-for-52 on 2s this season, good for 73.1 percent.

He can also knock down the occasional 3-pointer – he’s shooting 35 percent on 60 attempts – and is an excellent free-throw shooter at 83.7 percent. Frager’s 11.7 points per game are third on the team.

Jared Garcia, a 6-foot-8 transfer from Tulsa, plays spot minutes off the bench and was pivotal in wins against Wisconsin and Illinois in December. He combined for 18 points in those two wins.

Rienk Mast and Braden Frager shot chart.

(Shot charts via UMHoops.com)

The backcourt and wing rotation features Jamarques Lawrence, Sam Hoiberg, Pryce Sandfort and Cale Jacobsen.

Sandfort, a 6-foot-7 junior transfer from Iowa, is enjoying a breakout in his first season in Lincoln. He’s already got five games with 20 or more points, including a 32-point effort at Illinois that featured six made 3-pointers.

He’s just behind Mast in scoring at 15.9 points per game and is 45-for-119 on 3s (37.8 percent). As his shot chart below shows, Sandfort appears to be slightly more comfortable from the right side of the floor but can fill it up from anywhere.

The 6-foot-3 Lawrence began his career at Nebraska and played two seasons for the Huskers before transferring to play for Archie Miller at Rhode Island last winter. He’s back in Lincoln for his final season and does a little bit of everything in the Nebraska backcourt.

Lawrence has scored in double figures seven times, including the last two games against Ohio State and Michigan State. He can be turnover-prone at times – his assist-to-turnover rate is 1.87-to-1. But he’s a solid finisher and capable 3-point shooter at 37.5 percent.

Payton Sandfort and Jamarques Lawrence shot chart.

Hoiberg, a 6-foot senior, maximizes his talent and plays with energy that is contagious to his teammates. He averages 8.3 points, 5.1 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.7 steals and is shooting 35.5 percent on 3s. He’s racked up 58 assists to only 10 turnovers on the season.

Jacobsen, a 6-foot-4 junior, averages 3.9 points and 2.9 rebounds in 19.6 minutes off the bench. He’s shooting 59.4 percent on 2s but has scored a total of 13 points over the last seven games.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

Tempo-free stats preview for IU-Nebraska.

(All national rankings in parentheses are current through Wednesday’s games.)

It’s not an overstatement that perimeter shooting will factor heavily into Saturday’s outcome. Both teams get up shots from distance and Indiana is connecting at a 36.3 percent clip compared to 33.8 percent for Nebraska.

The Huskers do a great job of taking care of the ball with a turnover percentage of 13.7, which ranks 15th nationally. Nebraska doesn’t crash the offensive glass – 283rd in offensive rebounding percentage – and is 290th in free throw rate (FTA/FGA).

Nebraska’s opponents are scoring 43.5 percent of their points on 3s, the 2nd highest rate nationally, but are shooting only 30.4 percent from deep. Eight opponents have made 10 or more triples against Nebraska this season, but no opponent has connected at better than a 37.8 percent clip in a game.

How has Nebraska been able to win while giving up so many 3s?

The Huskers force a lot of long 2s, keep their opponents off the foul line and don’t allow offensive rebounds. According to KenPom.com, the average distance of 2-point shots attempted against Nebraska is 7.2 feet, which is 12th in the country. (IU’s defense is tied with Nebraska at 7.2 in that statistic.)

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection is IU by three with a 58 percent chance of a Hoosier victory. Bart Torvik favors the Hoosiers by five with a 68 percent chance of a win.

The Hoosiers have been excellent at home this season, but this will easily be the biggest test yet for this group. It could also be a smaller-than-usual crowd for a top-10 opponent, with some of the fanbase in Atlanta for the Peach Bowl on Friday night.

Indiana will have to continue its hot perimeter shooting on Branch McCracken Court while limiting turnovers and finding a way to generate some points at the line to win. This is likely to be a game of runs, with both teams capable of getting hot quickly from distance.

With a road trip to Michigan State looming on Tuesday and an NCAA tournament currently lacking a resume win, a victory against Nebraska would be significant in the first year of the Darian DeVries era.

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