What to Expect: IU basketball hosts Michigan State on Sunday afternoon

Lamar Wilkerson defends at Michigan State.

IU basketball will look to bounce back from a disastrous 72-68 home loss to Northwestern when it hosts Michigan State on Sunday at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. The Spartans have won three straight and beat Purdue 76-74 on Thursday night at Mackey Arena.

Sunday’s tipoff is set for 3:45 p.m. ET on CBS:

Tuesday’s loss to Northwestern dealt Indiana’s NCAA tournament chances a significant blow, but the Hoosiers have a massive opportunity to secure a quad one win this weekend.

In a rematch of a January 13 contest that was close for 30 minutes, Indiana hosts Michigan State on Sunday in Bloomington. At 13-4 in Big Ten play, the Spartans are looking to wrap up a top-four Big Ten finish and a triple bye in the 2026 Big Ten tournament at the United Center in Chicago.

THE FIRST MATCHUP

Indiana was tied 53-all against Michigan State in the Breslin Center in the first matchup between the two programs before the Spartans closed the game on a 28-7 run for an easy 21-point win.

Points off turnovers were a huge key in the win for Tom Izzo’s team. Indiana committed 14 turnovers against the Spartans, which turned into 29 points.

Michigan State also comfortably won the fast-break points battle 25-12, a number that is a significant concern for Indiana. The Hoosiers have been unable to score in transition recently, totaling just nine fast-break points over the last five games.

The Hoosiers were also thoroughly dominated in the front court in the first matchup. Reed Bailey finished with five points, seven rebounds and four turnovers in 18 minutes before fouling out at the Breslin Center. Sam Alexis had six points and no rebounds in 16 minutes.

Michigan State’s frontcourt combo of Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper, meanwhile, combined for 23 points and 17 rebounds.

The Spartans also dominated on the glass, grabbing 48.1 percent of their missed shots and scoring 11 second-chance points. The discrepancy in second-chance points has been a nightmare for Indiana in its three-game losing streak. The Hoosiers have been outscored 42-6 in second-chance points in the last three games and Michigan State is well equipped to dominate on the boards.

Michigan State point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. was also terrific in the first matchup. Fears was dominant in the first half offensively, scoring 19 points in 16 minutes. In the second half, Fears put his playmaking on display and dished out seven assists. He finished with 23 points, 10 assists, four rebounds and two steals and drew six fouls in 33 minutes.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

All statistics are for Big Ten games only and are updated through Thursday.

Tempo-free stats preview Indiana-Michigan State.

Michigan State is an elite defensive team, ranking third in the Big Ten in points per possession allowed. Indiana managed only .93 points per possession in the first game, an output they will need to improve significantly to make Sunday’s game competitive.

The Spartans are the Big Ten’s best defensive rebounding team and also rank second in 2-point field goal percentage defense at 48.2. Indiana is going to need a hot shooting perimeter performance if it hopes to pull off the upset. The Hoosiers shot 32.3 percent on 3s at the Breslin Center. In its conference wins, IU is shooting 38.7 percent from distance; in its Big Ten losses, 31.2 percent.

The primary concern, however, has to be defensive rebounding for Indiana and finding a way to put up more resistance on defense. Big Ten teams with an interior presence are feasting on IU on the boards and are also finding it far too easy for easy looks at the rim.

Michigan State is grabbing 37.1 percent of its missed shots in conference play and already had an offensive rebounding percentage of nearly 50 percent in the first meeting. If Indiana doesn’t find a way to shore things up on the defensive boards, it’ll likely be a long afternoon.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection has Michigan State by four points with a 36 percent chance of a Hoosier victory. Bart Torvik projects a one-point win for the Spartans and a 47 percent chance of an IU win.

The vibes surrounding these two teams couldn’t be further apart entering Sunday afternoon. Michigan State appears to be hitting its stride as the NCAA tournament nears. The Spartans were blown out by Wisconsin and responded with three straight wins against UCLA, Ohio State and Purdue.

Indiana, meanwhile, was blown out by Illinois and Purdue, then collapsed against Northwestern earlier this week in Bloomington.

How the Hoosiers respond on Sunday should be telling about where this group is mentally. There’s still something to play for with the NCAA tournament not completely out of the picture, but it will take a full 40-minute effort and toughness on the glass to pull off an upset.

Michigan State does have three Big Ten road losses – at Nebraska, at Minnesota and at Wisconsin – but the Hoosiers will have to play at a level they haven’t reached recently to walk out of Assembly Hall with a win.

(Photo credit: IU Athletics)

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