What to Expect: IU basketball hosts Wisconsin to begin two-game home stand
- Alex Bozich
- 1h ago
IU basketball returns from a two-game trip to the West Coast to host Wisconsin on Saturday afternoon at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. The Badgers are 16-6 overall, 8-3 in the Big Ten and have won seven of their last eight games.
Saturday’s game is set for a 12 p.m. ET tip on FOX:
Indiana navigated the first 12 games of the Big Ten schedule with a 6-6 record and now the Hoosiers have five of their last eight games in Bloomington to close the regular season.
The Hoosiers are KenPom favorites in four of their five remaining home games, including Saturday’s matchup against Wisconsin and Monday’s game against Oregon.
The Badgers will enter Saturday’s game well rested, having not played since Saturday, January 31, against Ohio State. The game in Bloomington for Wisconsin will be the first on the road since Thursday, January 22, against Penn State.
The Hoosiers, meanwhile, split a West Coast trip, beating UCLA in double overtime before falling to USC on Tuesday. IU traveled back from Los Angeles on Wednesday ahead of Saturday’s noon tip.
MEET THE BADGERS
Greg Gard, now in his 11th season as Wisconsin’s head coach, has advanced to a pair of Sweet Sixteens and won a pair of Big Ten regular-season championships in Madison.
The 55-year-old Wisconsin native has also evolved his style of play as the Badgers have transformed from one of the nation’s most deliberate offenses into a group that likes to get up and down. This season, Wisconsin is playing at the 68th-fastest tempo in the country, according to KenPom.com, as of Wednesday’s games.
Even with the change in tempo that began last season and has come into full blossom this winter, the Badgers haven’t sacrificed their most sacred principle – taking care of the ball. Wisconsin is turning it over on just 13.7 percent of possessions, ranking 17th nationally.
After graduating John Tonje, Steven Crowl and Max Klesmit, three starters a season ago, Gard retained John Blackwell and Nolan Winter and added from the transfer portal and the international ranks to position the Badgers for another NCAA tournament appearance.
Wisconsin’s two leading scorers are in the backcourt in Nick Boyd and Blackwell, now a junior who has shown steady improvement throughout his career.
The 6-foot-3 Boyd began his career back in the 2020-21 season at Florida Atlantic under Dusty May and was a member of the 2023 Final Four team for the Owls. The 24-year-old Boyd left Florida Atlantic and played last season at San Diego State before transferring to Madison for his final season of eligibility.
The lefty guard averages a team-best 20 points per game, a career-best, to go along with 3.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists in 30 minutes per game. He’s shooting 47.7 percent from the field, 31.4 percent on 3s and 82.5 percent from the free-throw line. The scout on Boyd is to prevent him from going left, but few opponents have been able to execute it.
Blackwell, a native of Michigan, is one of the best two-way guards in the Big Ten. His 18.5 points per game are just behind Boyd and he’s second on the team in rebounding with five per game. Blackwell also dishes out 2.3 assists and has a team-high 27 steals. Blackwell’s 3-point volume has risen from 4.9 attempts per game to 6.9 per game this season, and his percentage has gone up from 32.2 percent to 37.5 percent, a healthy jump.
Virginia transfer Andrew Rohde, a native of Wisconsin who began his career at St. Thomas, starts at the three. He missed Wisconsin’s last game against Ohio State with a wrist injury, but isn’t expected to miss significant time, which means he could be on the floor on Saturday.
The 6-foot-6 guard is a career 32.8 percent 3-point shooter and averages 6.5 points in 24.8 minutes per game.
Up front, the Badgers start Winter, a 7-foot junior, and Lithuanian big man Aleksas Bieliauskas, who was pivotal in Wisconsin’s upset win at Michigan last month.
Winter is third on the roster in scoring at 13.8 points per game, leads the team in rebounding with 8.7 per game and also blocks a team-leading 1.2 shots per game. The Minnesota native is shooting 71.8 percent on 2s and 32.4 percent on 3s (68 attempts).
Bieliauskas made five 3-pointers in Wisconsin’s win at Michigan and is 14-for-42 from distance this season. In 17.7 minutes per game, the 6-foot-10 freshman averages 4.6 points and 4.1 rebounds.
The core of the Wisconsin rotation goes eight deep with forward Austin Rapp, wing Braeden Carrington and guard Jack Janicki coming off the bench.
Rapp, a 6-foot-10 sophomore who transferred from Portland, is from Melbourne, Australia. He’s been up and down on 3-pointers, but went 5-for-7 against Ohio State and 5-for-11 against Providence. His 8.9 points in 21 minutes per game are fourth on the team.
Carrington began his career at Minnesota and played last season at Tulsa before transferring back to the Big Ten to finish his career. He’s exclusively a 3-point shooter, as 89 of his 103 field goal attempts have been 3-pointers. The 6-foot-5 wing is shooting 41.6 percent on 3s, including 40.7 percent in Big Ten play.
The 6-foot-5 Janicki, a Minnesota native, started the last game in Rohde’s place and averages just 2.4 points on 31.1 percent shooting from the field in 17.2 minutes per game.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
The Hoosiers and Badgers are two of the best 3-point shooting teams in the Big Ten. Indiana scores 41.6 percent of its points in the Big Ten on 3s and Wisconsin scores 40.1 percent of its points from the 3-ball.
The Badgers are slightly better at taking care of the ball in league play and do a better job of getting to the free-throw line. Indiana’s biggest defensive weakness is its inability to keep opponents off the line. Big Ten foes are posting a free-throw rate (FTA/FGA) of 41.3 percent against the Hoosiers, the highest mark in the league. Wisconsin is a group well-equipped to take advantage at the line with an 80.7 percent mark from the stripe, second in the league.
Wisconsin, like Indiana, isn’t a great shot-blocking team and the Badgers don’t force many turnovers, ranking 16th in the league in turnover percentage.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
Perimeter shooting will weigh heavily in Saturday’s outcome. Wisconsin shot 7-for-32 on 3s in an early-season road loss at Nebraska. In its three Big Ten road games since that loss in Lincoln – wins against Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State – the Badgers are 44-for-101 from distance.
Indiana needs a great crowd and atmosphere in Assembly Hall on Saturday, which was missing in its losses last month against Nebraska and Iowa.
The Hoosiers drew an elite crowd against Purdue, which helped push them to a 72-67 win.
The KenPom projection is Indiana by five with a 65 percent chance for a Hoosier win and Bart Torvik’s ratings favor IU by six with a 72 percent chance of victory.
See More: Commentary, Wisconsin Badgers