What to Expect: IU basketball travels to Rutgers
- Alex Bozich
- 1h ago
IU basketball looks to end its four-game losing streak when it travels to Piscataway to take on Rutgers on Friday evening at Jersey Mike’s Arena. The Scarlet Knights are 9-10 overall and 2-6 in Big Ten play.
Friday’s game will tip at 6 p.m. ET on FS1:
Indiana’s poor defensive form in recent weeks has led to a four-game losing streak, with three of those losses by 14 or more points.
The Hoosiers have their third most winnable game remaining on the schedule, according to KenPom.com, on Friday night in New Jersey against Rutgers.
The Scarlet Knights, No. 142 in KenPom and No. 151 in the NET as of Thursday morning, have won their last two home games in league play in overtime against Oregon and Northwestern.
MEET THE SCARLET KNIGHTS
After the most anticipated Rutgers basketball season last season ended with a 15-17 record, the Scarlet Knights are on pace for their worst KenPom finish under Steve Pikiell.
Pikiell, in his 10th season at Rutgers, led the program to NCAA tournament appearances in 2021 and 2022. But the program has been stagnant since and is headed for a fourth straight season with 15 or more losses.
Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper left for the NBA after one season, as expected, and a good chunk of last season’s rotation either graduated or left via the transfer portal.
Eleven players saw the floor in the most recent Rutgers loss at Iowa on Tuesday and seven are new to the program this year. As you might expect with a team searching for consistency, the starting lineup has fluctuated throughout the year, with nine different players earning at least three starts.
Looking at the overall rotation, Rutgers has 11 players averaging more than 11 minutes per game and no player averaging more than 27.4 minutes.
The two double-figure scorers on the roster are junior guard Tariq Francis, a transfer from NJIT who has come off the bench in the last eight games, and sophomore forward Dylan Grant, who started the first 16 games but has come off the bench in the previous three contests.
The 6-foot-1 Francis has the second-highest usage rate in the Big Ten in conference play and is the only Rutgers player averaging in double figures in league games.
Francis averages 15.3 points on 43.7 shooting from the field, a 32.5 percent mark on 3-pointers and 87.5 percent from the free-throw line. He’s attempted a team-high 88 free throws and can also create for others with an assist rate of 25 percent in Big Ten games.
The 6-foot-8 Grant showed promise last season as a freshman and was excellent to start the season this year. Grant scored in double figures in 12 of the team’s first 14 games but has struggled as of late. In the last five games, Grant has scored a total of 18 points and grabbed only 10 rebounds. Overall, he’s still the team’s second leading scorer at 11.5 points per game.
George Washington transfer Darren Buchanan, a 6-foot-7 junior wing, scored 17 points in Tuesday’s loss at Iowa. He’s third on the team in scoring at 8.2 points per game and shoots 47.4 percent on 3s on limited volume (one attempt per game).
Junior guard Jamichael Davis has started 18 of 19 games and leads the Scarlet Knights with 2.6 assists per game and also logs a team-leading 27.4 minutes per game. Davis is 20-for-53 on 3s (37.7 percent).
Harun Zrno, a one-time IU commit, is a 6-foot-7 freshman who is a perimeter-only threat. Zrno takes 80.7 percent of his shots from 3 and is 28-for-88 on triples this season (31.8 percent).
Kaden Powers, a 6-foot-4 freshman from Seattle, has started the last five games and had 12 points in a loss at Illinois on January 8. Powers averages 5.9 points but is shooting just 31.5 percent from the field.
The other guard name to know on the roster is 6-foot-2 freshman Lino Mark. The Los Angeles native had 13 points in an overtime win against Oregon on January 5. He’s 0-for-16 on 3-pointers this season and averages 3.5 points in 13.1 minutes.
Up front, Rutgers rotates sophomore Bryce Dortch, senior Emmanuel Ogbole and freshman Chris Nwuli along with the aforementioned Grant.
Dortch isn’t an offensive threat but can defend at the rim. He has 15 blocked shots and has the 15th-best block percentage in league games.
The 6-foot-10 Ogbole is an even better shot blocker – 25 in 19 games – and is the best offensive rebounder in the Big Ten. Ogbole is foul-prone, but averages 4.9 points and 6.9 rebounds in 18.5 minutes. If Indiana can’t find a way to keep him off the offensive glass, it could be a long night for the Hoosiers.
Nwuli, a 6-foot-8 forward from North Las Vegas, is shooting only 35.3 percent from the field and averages 2.1 points in 11.1 minutes per game.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
(All numbers below for Big Ten games only and rankings in parentheses are through Wednesday’s games.)
Friday’s game will be physical, and with a deeper rotation than IU, the Scarlet Knights will try wear the Hoosiers down over the course of 40 minutes.
Offensively, Rutgers struggles to score and is shooting just 46.5 percent on 2s in Big Ten play, the worst mark in the league. But the Scarlet Knights will go hard on the offensive glass, with Ogbole looming as a potential issue in extending possessions.
Rutgers opponents are shooting 39.3 percent on 3s in conference games, the second-highest mark in the Big Ten. The Scarlet Knights are also the third-worst defensive rebounding team in the league.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
Rutgers, despite its poor record, has been competitive since the return of Big Ten play in early January. Outside of a 26-point loss at Illinois, Rutgers is 2-3 since the new year with an average margin of defeat of 7.3 points (vs. Ohio State, at Wisconsin, at Iowa) and home wins against Oregon and Northwestern.
The KenPom projection is Indiana by seven with a 73 percent chance of a win for the Hoosiers. Bart Torvik has the Hoosiers winning by 10 points, with an 83 percent win probability.
Indiana desperately needs a win, but the road hasn’t been kind thus far under Darian DeVries. The Hoosiers are 1-3 in Big Ten road games.
To leave Piscataway with a win, Indiana will have to do a better job of defending without fouling, keep Rutgers off the offensive glass and make 3s consistently.
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