What to Expect: IU basketball travels to Michigan State
- Alex Bozich
- 4h ago
IU basketball is back on the road to take on Michigan State on Tuesday night at the Breslin Center. The Spartans are 14-2 overall and 4-1 in the Big Ten. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, are 12-4 and 3-2 in the league following an 83-77 loss to Nebraska on Saturday at Assembly Hall.
Tuesday’s game is scheduled for a 7 p.m. ET tip on Peacock (simulcast on NBC Sports Network, which is available on YouTubeTV and Xfinity):
IU basketball missed an opportunity for a resume-worthy win on Saturday in Bloomington, falling to Nebraska 83-77 after leading by as many as 16 in the second half.
The road gets no easier as IU heads to East Lansing to take on the No. 12 Spartans on Tuesday night. Michigan State has won six of seven and has one home loss this season (Dec. 6 against Duke).
MEET THE SPARTANS
Michigan State has assembled a roster capable of posing major problems for an IU team with a limited frontcourt.
The Spartans are the nation’s best defensive rebounding team and the 10th best offensive rebounding unit through 16 games, per KenPom.com.
Two of Michigan State’s four double-figure scorers are in the frontcourt: Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper.
The 6-foot-10 Kohler, a senior, leads the Spartans in scoring at 14.2 points per game and in rebounding at 10.1 per game. In Big Ten play, he’s shooting 63 percent on 2s, is 11-for-18 on 3s and is second in the conference in defensive rebounding percentage (27.4).
After barely shooting any 3s his first two seasons, Kohler was 19-for-51 from distance last season and is 32-for-60 this season, making him a difficult cover because of his ability to bury opponents in the post and also stretch the floor with his shooting.
Cooper, a 6-foot-11 senior, averages 10.2 points, 7.2 rebounds and has 16 blocked shots, tied for the team lead with Kohler and Coen Carr. Cooper draws fouls at a high rate, ranking first in the Big Ten in free throw rate (FTA/FGA) for the first five league games. He’s attempted more free throws (25) than field goals (24) thus far in Big Ten play.
The aforementioned Carr is one of the best athletes in all of college basketball who starts at the three for Tom Izzo. The 6-foot-6 Carr is only 6-for-32 on 3s, but is an excellent offensive rebounder and electric dunker. An above-the-rim finisher, Carr is shooting 57 percent on 2s and is third on the team in scoring at 11.6 points per game.
(Shot charts via UMHoops.com)
Depth up front and on the wing is provided by freshmen Jordan Scott and Cam Ward.
The 6-foot-9, 230-pound Ward averages 5.7 points and 4.4 rebounds in 14.3 minutes, while Scott, who is 6-foot-8, likes to operate on the perimeter. The Reston, Virginia, native is 11-for-40 on 3s and averages 3.9 points in 16.3 minutes per game.
The Spartan backcourt is led by Jeremy Fears Jr., a redshirt sophomore who leads the nation in assist rate.
Fears’ assist rate of 49.9 percent is first nationally, per KenPom.com, and he’s racked up 140 assists compared to just 36 turnovers. Fears is a 90-percent free-throw shooter and averages 12.1 points in 30.5 minutes per game. He’s 0-for-11 on 3s so far in Big Ten play but 34-for-36 from the free throw line and is fourth in the league in free throw rate. In terms of pure point guards who can command a game in the backcourt, there aren’t many better in the country.
Divine Ugochukwu, a transfer from Miami (FL), had a 23-point performance in a win at Penn State last month and is 14-for-30 on 3s this season, including a 6-for-10 mark in Big Ten games. He’s started six times in 15 appearances and averages 5.2 points per game.
Sophomore Kur Teng is a capable 3-point shooter off the bench. The 6-foot-5 wing is 23-for-65 on 3s (35.4 percent) and has scored in double figures in six games.
Harvard transfer point guard Denham Wojcik and Samford transfer Trey Fort, who was starting early in the season, will play spot minutes off the bench. Wojcik has scored only five points total in 13 games and Fort has fallen out of favor with Izzo in recent weeks. Fort is just 14-for-48 on 3s this season and has the second-lowest offensive rating on the roster.
TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW
(All national rankings in parentheses updated through Sunday’s games.)
The Spartans are an elite defensive team, ranking third nationally in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency.
Michigan State opponents are shooting just 45.4 percent on 2s and are grabbing only 22.3 percent of their missed shots. Opponents are scoring 37.5 percent of their points against the Spartans from 3-pointers, the 18th-highest rate in the country. Indiana’s perimeter shooting, if the Hoosiers can get into a rhythm, will be crucial to keeping this game competitive.
Offensively, Michigan State thrives on crashing the boards and has a decided advantage in the paint against the Hoosiers with Kohler and Cooper. While the Spartans aren’t a high-volume 3-point shooting team, they’re improved from the last few seasons. Michigan State is shooting 35.9 percent from deep overall this season and 35.7 percent in Big Ten play.
The Spartans have been turnover-prone in league play, ranking last in the conference in turnover percentage at 23.9.
WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO
Indiana faces an uphill battle going to the Breslin Center, one of the best homecourt environments in the Big Ten.
The KenPom projection is Michigan State by seven with a 27 percent chance of an IU victory. Bart Torvik favors the Spartans by five with a 32 percent chance of a Hoosier victory.
Both of those numbers seem low, given how Indiana has played away from home this year against quality competition.
While Lamar Wilkerson has been rolling recently, Indiana has been inconsistent otherwise offensively and the Hoosiers fell apart defensively in the second half against Nebraska. Michigan State has quality depth, is relentless on the glass and is one of the most physical teams in the country. If the Hoosiers can’t make perimeter shots or match Michigan State’s physicality and grit in the paint, it could be a long night in East Lansing.
See More: Commentary, Michigan State Spartans