Updated ESPN FPI game-by-game predictions for IU football’s 2025 season

Photos of IU football vs. Illinois football at Memorial Stadium on September 20, 2025.

IU football is 5-0 with wins against Illinois and Iowa and is ranked No. 8 in the latest Associated Press top 25 poll.

The Hoosiers are off this weekend and will travel to Autzen Stadium to take on No. 2 Oregon on Saturday, October 11.

IU began the season ranked No. 26 in the ESPN Football Power Index (FPI), but has since risen to No. 5 nationally after five weeks of the regular season.

In the preseason, the FPI projected the Hoosiers to finish 9-3 with losses to Iowa, Oregon and Penn State.

Here are updated FPI game-by-game projections for IU’s seven remaining games:

Week 7 – at Oregon (October 11)

Prediction: IU loss
IU’s current percentage chance to win: 29.8%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 19%

Week 8 – Michigan State (October 18)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s current percentage chance to win: 93.3%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 78.9%

Week 9 – UCLA (October 25)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s current percentage chance to win: 98.1%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 77.3%

Week 10 – Maryland (November 1)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s current percentage chance to win: 82.7%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 65.4%

Week 11 – at Penn State (November 8)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s current percentage chance to win: 51.6%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 17.3%

Week 12 – Wisconsin (November 15)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s current percentage chance to win: 92.1%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 66.1%

Week 14 – at Purdue (November 28)

Prediction: IU win
IU’s current percentage chance to win: 93.3%
IU’s percentage chance to win in the preseason: 86.4%

The updated ESPN FPI projection is an 11-1 record for the Hoosiers.

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