Indiana among “first four teams out” in latest ESPN Bracketology

According to ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, based on its performance in 11 games, Indiana is currently projected to miss the 2025 NCAA tournament.

The Hoosiers were picked to finish second in the Big Ten in the preseason.

Lunardi is releasing weekly brackets and his latest projections, released Tuesday, have Indiana as the fourth team in the “first four out” category.

The Hoosiers are 8-3 but have yet to beat a team currently projected to make the 2025 NCAA tournament. Indiana’s best wins are South Carolina, ranked No. 66 in KenPom and Providence, which is No. 81.

IU’s three losses – to Louisville, Gonzaga and Nebraska – have come by an average of 20.3 points.

According to Lunardi, ten Big Ten programs — Wisconsin, Michigan, Maryland, UCLA, Purdue, Illinois, Penn State, Michigan State, Oregon, and Ohio State — are projected to make the field as of December 17.

Nebraska is among the “first four” teams out.

As of Wednesday morning, Indiana is ranked No. 41 in KPI, No. 43 in Bart Torvik, No. 51 in KenPom, No. 60 in Strength of Record (SOR) and No. 65 in the NCAA NET rankings. The Hoosiers are also No. 70 in Wins Above Bubble (WAB). Each ranking is used as an evaluation tool in the NCAA tournament selection process. Torvik’s “TourneyCast” currently gives the Hoosiers a 37.2 percent chance of making the 2025 NCAA tournament field.

Indiana is 0-2 in quad 1 games, 1-1 in quad 2 games, 4-0 in quad 3 games and 3-0 in quad 4 games.

The Hoosiers have two non-conference games against Chattanooga (Dec. 21) and Winthrop (Dec. 29) before resuming Big Ten play on Jan. 2 in Bloomington against Rutgers.

The good news for IU is conference play will provide plenty of opportunities to earn resume-worthy wins.

According to WarrenNolan.com, Indiana has 13 upcoming games that are currently projected to be in quad 1. Those games include five home contests – Maryland, UCLA, Illinois, Michigan and Penn State.

Eight of IU’s nine remaining Big Ten road games are projected quad 1 opportunities: Oregon, Michigan State, Penn State, Purdue, Ohio State, Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern.

Indiana has three remaining games projected to fall in quad 2: Purdue at home, Ohio State at home and Washington on the road. Home games against Rutgers and USC are projected as quad 3 while IU’s last two non-conference games are projected as quad 4.

The Hoosiers have made the NCAA tournament field in two of the last three seasons under Mike Woodson. In Woodson’s first season, 2021-22, Indiana, as a No. 12 seed, beat Wyoming in a “first four” game in Dayton before falling to St. Mary’s in Portland.

In Woodson’s second season, Indiana, as a No. 4 seed, beat Kent State in a round of 64 game in Albany, New York before falling to Miami (FL) in the tournament’s second round.

Last season, Indiana finished 19-14 and did not make the postseason.

Woodson has repeatedly stated that his goal in Bloomington is to win Big Ten and national championships.

“My goal coming in — and it’s not going to ever change — is that we’ve got to win Big Ten titles and national titles,” Woodson told John Fanta of FoxSports.com in the fall of 2023. “That’s the only reason why I came back to Indiana. I have no other agenda.”

Category: Media

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