What to Expect: Indiana at Nebraska

Indiana resumes Big Ten play Wednesday night when it takes on Nebraska at Pinnacle Bank Arena in Lincoln. The Cornhuskers are 11-2 and 1-1 in conference play.

Wednesday’s game will tip at 9 p.m. ET on BTN:

Indiana is 10-3, but there’s little meat on the resume for the Hoosiers. However, the program will have plenty of chances of resume-building wins, and the first one comes Tuesday night at Nebraska. The Huskers are currently No. 63 in the NCAA’s NET rankings, making this a Quad 1 opportunity for Indiana.

There are two major availability question marks entering this game. Nebraska’s Rienk Mast, who recently underwent a minor knee procedure, is expected back in early January. And Indiana’s Kel’el Ware missed Friday’s game against Kennesaw State due to COVID-19.

MEET THE CORNHUSKERS

It’s year five for Fred Hoiberg in Lincoln, and he may finally have the roster to make the NCAA tournament. The Huskers are a well-balanced offensive team, with four players averaging between 12.7 and 13.7 points per game.

Nebraska likes to play through the high post and takes a lot of 3-pointers, with 44.9 percent of its field goal attempts coming from distance.

Forward Brice Williams, a transfer from Charlotte, leads Nebraska in scoring and shoots close to 35 percent on 3s and 88 percent from the free-throw line. The 6-foot-7 wing has been one of the top portal pickups in the conference.

In his second season in Lincoln after transferring from Alabama, Juwan Gary is second on the team in scoring at 13.3 points per game. Gary missed the second half of last season with a shoulder injury and was suspended for the first three games this season. He’s started the last four games and shoots 37.1 percent from distance. Gary’s 6.9 rebounds per game are second on the team.

Mast, a Bradley transfer, is Nebraska’s third-leading scorer but has missed the last two games after undergoing minor knee surgery. Mast is averaging 13 points and 9.9 rebounds and is an excellent free-throw shooter at 87.1 percent. Hoiberg has stated that Mast is on track to return in “early January.”

If Mast doesn’t play, look for 6-foot-8 senior Josiah Allick to step in as the starter at the five. A transfer from New Mexico who has also played at UMKC, Allick is undersized for the five but finishes well (56 percent on 2s) and is a solid offensive rebounder.

The backcourt is led by Keisei Tominaga, a preseason All-Big Ten selection. Tominaga shot 40 percent from distance last season but is only connecting at a 33.3 percent rate through 11 games. The 6-foot-1 guard moves without the ball as well as anyone in the conference and is fourth on the team in scoring at 12.7 points per game.

Sophomore Jamarques Lawrence is the starting point guard and gets help off the bench from Sam Hoiberg. Lawrence averages 2.8 assists, but shoots just 42.5 percent on 2s and 26.2 percent on 3s. Hoiberg does the little things that contribute to winning. He’s a pest defensively, knows how to move the ball and find the open man, and can knock down shots from the perimeter when open (39.1 percent on 3s).

One rotation name to know off the bench is CJ Wilcher, a career 36.1 percent 3-point shooter who has knocked down 17 3s this season in 13 games. Wilcher averages 7.8 points in 16 minutes per game.

TEMPO-FREE PREVIEW

All stats are via KenPom.com and updated through Monday’s games.

Nebraska plays fast offensively, with an average possession length of just 15.9 seconds. That ranks 47th in the country. But the Huskers make their opponents work to get shots defensively. Nebraska’s opponents are averaging 18.4 seconds per possession, which is 343rd nationally.

The Huskers are allowing their opponents to shoot just 43.6 percent on 2s, which ranks 21st in the country. Nebraska also defends well without fouling with an opponent free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of just 23.8 percent. Getting to the line is one of Indiana’s biggest strengths. The Hoosiers are outscoring their opponents by an average of 4.8 points per game.

With all of the 3-point attempts, Nebraska is also a very good offensive rebounding team, ranking 66th nationally in offensive rebounding percentage. Indiana’s defensive rebounding has improved since the beginning of the season, but the Hoosiers have struggled to corral long rebounds when teams attempt a lot of 3-pointers.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

The KenPom projection is Nebraska by seven with a 28 percent chance of a Hoosier victory. The Huskers are 9-1 at Pinnacle Bank Arena with a 29-point loss against Creighton on Dec. 3.

The status of Ware and Mast looms large as both players are among the top frontcourt players in the league.

Indiana already has a road conference win at Michigan, but the atmosphere it will encounter on Wednesday will be much different than the Crisler Center. Nebraska fans are excited about this Husker team and Pinnacle Bank Arena should be rocking.

Even if Mast is able to go, the Hoosiers should have an advantage in the post with Malik Reneau. Nebraska, however, has two excellent wings in Gary and Williams, plenty of 3-point shooters and Tominaga, who is still waiting for a breakout performance this season. If the Hoosiers can’t guard the 3-point line better, it will be an uphill battle to emerge with a win.

Category: Commentary

Filed to: Nebraska Cornhuskers