March Watch: Hoosiers back on the top line

  • 02/05/2013 2:13 pm in

IUMSUITH0003

We’re now just 40 days away from Selection Sunday and the Hoosiers are sitting atop the Big Ten standings with nine conference games remaining. With that in mind, it’s time for another edition of March Watch, a look at where Indiana stands in terms of the NCAA Tournament.

Overview

Since our last update, Indiana has been on the rise, compiling a 4-0 record with wins over Penn State, Michigan State, Purdue and Michigan. As a result, the Hoosiers currently sit at No. 2 on ESPN.com bracketologist Joe Lunardi’s s-curve, trailing only Florida.

Nitty Gritty Profile

· Record: 20-2 (8-1 Big Ten)
· RPI: 11
· SOS: 24
· Home Record: 14-1
· Away Record: 4-0
· Neutral Court Record: 2-1
· vs. RPI Top 50: 5-2
· vs. RPI Top 51-100: 3-0

Despite meetings with Michigan and Michigan State, IU’s strength of schedule actually fell three spots since our last update. The reason: Two of their games came against Purdue (RPI: 136) and Penn State (RPI: 180). The overall RPI number for Indiana is still lower than what you might expect because 12 of IU’s 20 wins are over teams outside of the RPI top 100.

Bracket Projections

· ESPN Bracketology (Joe Lunardi): 1 seed (Midwest) vs. Norfolk State/Bryant in Dayton
· CBS Sports (Jerry Palm): 1 seed (West) vs. North Carolina Central in Dayton
· Sports Illustrated (Andy Glockner): 1 seed (West) vs. Niagara in Lexington

All three of the brackets we track have the Hoosiers back on the top line with Lunardi sending the Hoosiers to the coveted Indianapolis regional and Jerry Palm and Andy Glockner shipping Indiana west to Los Angeles. Despite Indiana’s win over Michigan, there’s still no consensus on which team would receive the nod in the midwest at this point and ultimately, that determination will likely come down to who wins the Big Ten regular season title. The Bracket Matrix, which aggregates nearly every bracket projection available, has the Hoosiers as the final No. 1 seed. Crashing the Dance, which uses brackets from the past to predict what the selection committee will do, has IU as the top No. 2 seed.

Tournament Sites (distance in miles from Bloomington in parenthesis)

· First round: Dayton (139)
· Second, third round: Auburn Hills (295), Austin (881), Dayton (139), Kansas City (435), Lexington (133), Philadelphia (608), Salt Lake City (1343), San Jose (1908)
· Regional: Arlington (723), Indianapolis (45), Los Angeles (1791), Washington D.C. (515)
· Final Four: Atlanta

Filed to:

  • If the season ended right now Crashing the Dance would have the #1 team in the nation, who is getting about 80% of the first place votes, as a #2 seed……….I dont recall something like that ever happening.
    Can anyone recall the #1 team in the country going into the tournament being a 2 seed?

  • They’re not using human polls. They’re using old brackets to predict what the selection committee will do.

  • MillaRed

    This what I think of Lunardi’s curve:

    Florida beat #22 Wisconsin (who I would love to play right now) who is unranked.
    Lost to #8 Arizona
    Beat # 17 Mizzou and #16 Ole Miss at home? And they are ahead of IU on the curve? What is going on? Give them our schedule and they are #10 in the country. SEC is a joke.

    They can stick their curve where the sun don’t shine!

  • IUHoosiers23

    Jerry Palm at CBS has Duke as a #1 seed (in the EAST, I might add) with the #2 in their bracket being FLORIDA. How is this possible? Bracketology is supposed to be “if the season ended today…”. What a joke. And anyone who is giving Michigan the #1 seed in the Midwest over IU obviously didn’t watch the game on Saturday.

  • SCHoosier

    Let’s see..we have to play ILL, MN, OSU..MSU and UM on the road yet..and yes then there’s the post season tournament for the B-10..and then….I know the bracket talk is all fun…frankly I find it meaningless with the challenges that lie ahead for the Hoosiers. All the seeds and rankings mean nothing…at this point. Sorry guess I’m a “spoil sport.”

  • This SOS calculation is ridiculous. Basically it would have helped our SOS a lot more if we hadn’t played any games than playing Purdue and PSU and beating them. They should use a quality win metric rather than averaging opponents records for SOS.

  • Ben Ancelet

    I don’t think the Hoosiers fall off this line again the rest of the year. I hope they’re able to get that Indianapolis regional because that’d really be like Assembly Hall north for those games! But failing that I hope they end up on the west coast seeing as how the Staples Center is only 25 miles from me. I’m going to the regional there regardless of who plays but being able to get loud and crazy for our Hoosiers would be amazing.

  • Roger

    Totally unimportant, but Dayton is 129 miles, not 139 miles (as the crow flies, which looks like the measurement that was used) from Assembly Hall. That makes it closer than Rupp Arena, which was accurately listed at 133 miles. Splitting hairs, but if Dayton is technically closer, does committee send IU to Dayton, not Lexington? More importantly, I wonder if IU fans prefer one location over the other.

  • Roger

    Totally unimportant, but Dayton is 129 miles, not 139 miles (as the crow flies, which looks like the measurement that was used) from Assembly Hall. That makes it closer than Rupp Arena, which was accurately listed at 133 miles. Splitting hairs, but if Dayton is technically closer, does committee send IU to Dayton, not Lexington? More importantly, I wonder if IU fans prefer one location over the other.

  • iuoiu

    And Florida can literally win out in the SEC and SEC tourney and still not end up with a quality win that compares to ours over UM and MSU…..

  • Crashing the Dance has 139 miles: http://www.crashingthedance.com/distance.php

  • ScoopGeoff

    To be fair, UF’s resume looks good…. If you aren’t paying close attention, and a lot of the voters aren’t, then you’d think they’ve beaten some good teams:
    Wisconsin (trying to figure out who their PG was – kinda big deal)
    FSU (not as good as people expected)
    Marquette (Ranked now, but was struggling early with youth and suspended Mayo)
    Texas A&M (good win, but caught them after snapped the UK Rupp home streak)
    Mizzou (missing their best player to injury)
    Ole Miss (Home game and Ole Miss was without 2 players that combine for 41 mpg because they were injured in the previous game)
    Now, is UF good? Absolutely. They are very good, but I don’t think their resume compares to IU’s.
    W’s against MSU, UM, Georgetown, Minnesota, and UNC.
     

  • WisconHoosier

    I think any team in the top 12 can win it this year. Lots of basketball to be played yet.

    Question: do we try to win the B1G tournament? Or does that wear us down, and get us to peak too early, to win the NCAA, despite a better seed?

  • WisconHoosier

    I think any team in the top 12 can win it this year. Lots of basketball to be played yet.

    Question: do we try to win the B1G tournament? Or does that wear us down, and get us to peak too early, to win the NCAA, despite a better seed?

  • Oldguyy

    Dayton is two hours from Indy, and Lexington over three. I’ll take Dayton.

  • calbert40

    By the end of the season, all B1G teams are going to see their SOS skyrocket.

    RPI’s for all B1G teams (S.O.S. in parenthesis):

    UM – 6 (23)
    Minny – 9 (3)
    IU – 11 (24)
    MSU – 13 (20)
    OSU – 18 (31)
    Wisky – 41 (26)
    Illinois – 45 (10)
    Neb – 85 (13)
    NW – 86 (37)
    Iowa – 87 (98)
    PU – 136 (71)
    PSU – 180 (46)

    So, we have road games remaining against the numbers 6, 9, 13, 18 and 45 RPI teams in the nation and home games remaining against numbers 18, 85, 87 and 136.

    I think our SOS is going to go up considerably and, provided we do well in those games, our RPI as well (along with every other B1G team). In other words, we basically control our own destiny with our seed. We win = #1 seed.

  • hooscal

    I personally think RPI is utter garbage. Too much weight on SOS and no accounting of score at all. Plus, how on earth is a team’s opponents’ opponents’ record any reflection whatsoever on that teams quality? Irrelevant nonsense.

  • chiswede

    The problem with Crashing the Dance and The Bracket Project and other aggregate sites is that they’re taking into account ALL the bracket predictions they can find. I mean, there’s sites like http://96madness.wordpress.com/68-team-ncaa-tourney-projections/ and http://thesteelersnat.blogspot.com/p/ncaa-bracket-prediction.html that have us as a 3 seed. That second one is a Steelers Football blog run by 2 Steeler fans that met in college. I’m just as qualified to put a bracket together as they are.

    None of this means anything until selection Sunday.

  • Remy Willing and Abell

    Totally agree , what in the hell are they thinking ? The sec is complete DUMP ! I Hate to say it but I wouldn’t be surprised to see pUKe win the sec tourney . And I really don’t know what this Jerry Palm has been thinking all year , his bracket hasn’t made sense from day one .

  • Remy Willing and Abell

    Hell yes we care !!!! I would love to see Rupp in RED ! I think all who traveled there should take 500 red and white beads each and leave them all over Lexington , in bathrooms , hotels , gas stations , restaurants , trees , power lines ,etc…….and I live in Louisville . Okay maybe not the power lines .

  • Remy Willing and Abell

    Hell yes we care !!!! I would love to see Rupp in RED ! I think all who traveled there should take 500 red and white beads each and leave them all over Lexington , in bathrooms , hotels , gas stations , restaurants , trees , power lines ,etc…….and I live in Louisville . Okay maybe not the power lines .

  • HoosierPat

    Well I don’t think we’re behind Florida after they lose to Arkansas.

  • TJ91

    There should never be a time where we “don’t try to win”. Still have to instill the feeling of what it is like to be a champion. Also gives other teams more confidence against us if they see we are beatable.

  • TJ91

    What does that even mean Alex? Is a school like North Carolina getting a huge boost for being a 1 last year and a 2 then year before? If that’s the case, why are you guys even looking at it as a source?

  • sloan screen #45

    I am 45 minutes from Dayton which would be nice. UD Arena only holds 13000 though. Dont see us going there. Rupp at 23000 would be alot more money which is what the NCAA is after. Love to see Rupp turned red like we did in 2002.

  • jermhoosierfan

    They just lost that top seed earlier with a bad loss at Arkansas who kinda struggled to beat a offensively challenged Tennessee team over the weekend. I don’t put much faith in brackets except maybe for the seeds.

  • jermhoosierfan

    Go for the Big Ten tournament championship. Hopefully they get a Friday game with a play-in team who they should beat the crap out of pretty easily. That would have the team pretty rested for Sunday. That is all in theory if that first game is against a team that was a surprise winner of their tournament. I want that first Big Ten Tournament championship.

  • marcusgresham

    All I’ve heard about for two or three days now is Florida’s stifling defense……that just gave up 80 to Arkansas.

  • marcusgresham

    All I’ve heard about for two or three days now is Florida’s stifling defense……that just gave up 80 to Arkansas.

  • marcusgresham

    Dayton or Lexington isn’t nearly as important as being placed in the region that goes through Indianapolis.

  • FunkinHoosiers!

    Start the bench, give them quality minutes, use the starters as reserves and see what happens. I don’t want to see a VJIII for a tournament that is meaningless. We are going to the dance B1G tournament champs or not. Get our bench some real time on the floor rest the starters while keeping them sharp and win the tournament that matters!

  • Geoff_85

    That was probably my favorite NCAA Tournament game of all time. I was only able to watch the final 10-11 minutes because I had to work. I was 16 at the time and worked dishroom that night at Arni’s. I was pissed that they made me work, but the cool part was that practically right when I walked in was when IU started to come back. My dad, who passed away almost 2 years ago now, and I were jumping up and down like crazy people, which was fitting considering that’s normal during an IU game. It’s one of my fondest memories with my dad, and really is one of my fondest memories of my whole life. Winning in Rupp with the stands practically ALL IU, beating Duke, advancing to the Elite Eight (and eventually Championship Game), and the way the won. My goodness, that game was fun. Here is a link from YouTube of the game. The video quality sucks, but I urge everyone to at the very least fast forward to the final 4:05 of the video – it shows the halftime statistics and the audio gets fantastic from there — theme from Hoosiers — as it shows the 2nd half of the game, and then Don Fischer and Todd Leary for the final 2 minutes of the game. Here it is: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kUyNzz_3MME

  • BluegrassHoosier

    The mileage is a rule of thumb for the committee. Last year UK was closer
    to St. Louis than Atlanta but they were sent to “Catlanta” because the committee said it was a more “natural fit” for UK.

    I was in Rupp when we beat Duke in 2002 and I think we had 75% of
    the 23,000 seats. I think the committee would decide Lex is better because
    it holds 10,000 more seats and we traveled well last time in Lex.

  • BluegrassHoosier

    The mileage is a rule of thumb for the committee. Last year UK was closer
    to St. Louis than Atlanta but they were sent to “Catlanta” because the committee said it was a more “natural fit” for UK.

    I was in Rupp when we beat Duke in 2002 and I think we had 75% of
    the 23,000 seats. I think the committee would decide Lex is better because
    it holds 10,000 more seats and we traveled well last time in Lex.

  • Ole Man

    And FL got exposed last night by Ark!
    So much for their being so wonderful!

  • bdotblot

    Please don’t refer to Atlanta as “Catlanta.” Those of us that live here take offense to that name and dread when they show up with their trailer houses in tow. It takes about 2 weeks to get the stench out of the city after they leave.

  • SCHoosier

    Maybe..but they have four outstanding athletes..maybe not a deep bench..but Coach D knows what he’s doing. I personally don’t see them as a Final Four team..but Gators will bite a few people in the tourney.

  • SCHoosier

    I know what you mean..but I can’t imagine seeing an IU basketball team not trying..or a Coach like TC letting that thought even slip into the discussion. Now….might they be unfocused for a game in the post season conference deal…yep..and against the right team on t he right day..it will end up a “L”

  • They can’t Coach, it has got Arkansas’ boot already up there. I luv your energy Millared. We are #1.

  • iuoiu

    I don’t think it’s really a decision at all. You can’t just slow them down for fear of them peaking or getting tired – that really has not shown to work (just as byes in NFL playoffs end up not really mattering). There is also no real correlation between teams winning their conf. tourney and NCAA performance. You just go into it like a big dance warm up – if you win it great if not it’s not a big deal as long as you have improved in something before your 1st round game.

  • sloan screen #45

    The problem I see with all of this is IU still has to play at Illinois, at OH ST, at MSU, at Minny, and at Michigan. Way, way,way, way too early even discuss NCAA seeding at this point. IU is playing great right now but wow look at this schedule. Now I dont think it happens but it is very possible for this team to continue to play very good basketball and still have another 4 losses dropped on them . This league is that good this year. Could very well play excellent basketball over the final 9 and still drop to a 2 or 3 seed in the tourney. I think we should hold off getting our hopes up and wait and see how the remainder of this brutal B1G season plays out.

  • calbert40

    We have to try to win the conference tourney. An analyst (forget the name) said on Twitter last night that if the B1G tourney final four is IU, UM, MSU and OSU that it could be better than the quality of teams in the actual Final Four!! And that doesn’t count Minny or Wisky in the group either!

    Obviously, he’s being hyperbolic, but the point is that the B1G tourney is going to be on the same level as the Regional rounds, so it will be a great proving ground for all the teams involved.

    I just wish the tourney was in Indy this year. I might have tried to score a couple tix.

  • stubby

    these rankings dont mean diddly…TCOB each game says volumes

  • sloan screen #45

    Now that will get a Hoosier fan fired up. Coverdale and Fife are all time favorites. You talk about tough. Then Moye, Newton, Jeffries, Hornsby, hell the whole team. I remember not being able to go to sleep after that one but still having to get up at 4 in the morning to go to work. Great game.

  • marcusgresham

    …but it’s not meaningless if it means getting the #1 overall seed and having preferential placement (i.e., the regional finals in Indianapolis.)

  • marcusgresham

    …but it’s not meaningless if it means getting the #1 overall seed and having preferential placement (i.e., the regional finals in Indianapolis.)

  • Unranked Kansas kicked Flori-DUH’s arse, last night. Take THAT, Digger Phelps!!!

  • Daren Collentine

    UConn won 5 in a row in the Big East tourney and won 6 in a row in the NCAA’s just two years ago and it didn’t faze them at all. If you get hot in the conference tourney, you might as well ride it all the way until the wheels fall off or you win the whole shebang.

  • Daren Collentine

    UConn won 5 in a row in the Big East tourney and won 6 in a row in the NCAA’s just two years ago and it didn’t faze them at all. If you get hot in the conference tourney, you might as well ride it all the way until the wheels fall off or you win the whole shebang.

  • Kenneth234

    It just gives so called experts a chance to put their darling Duke back in the top spot…at least until they get blown out again!