Measuring success in 2010-2011

  • 07/22/2010 11:40 am in

INDIANAPOLIS - MARCH 11: Guard Verdell Jones III #12 of the Indiana Hoosiers drives with the ball against guard Michael Thompson #22 of the Northwestern Wildcats during the first round of the Big Ten Men's Basketball Tournament at Conseco Fieldhouse on March 11, 2010 in Indianapolis, Indiana. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)

If our calendar is correct, 85 days remain until Hoosier Hysteria. Which means it’s time to start thinking about the 2010-2011 season.

Over the next few months, we’ll have no shortage of previews: An in-depth look at each Big Ten team, our predictions for the All-Big Ten teams, a player-by-player breakdown of next season’s squad and perhaps even some analysis from a national perspective.

For now, we’d like to engage you on the following topic: How will you measure success during the upcoming season?

We know this answer will be different across the board. Some might measure success by wins, losses or potential for postseason play. Others might measure success via personal observations that improvement is taking place.

It’s certainly a subjective topic. But ultimately, we know this will be a thought-provoking process that will generate some solid discussion in the comments.

So with that, we turn you loose.

If you’re a long-time reader that comments often, you know what to do. If you’ve never commented before but are ready to take the plunge and become the next Kelin Blab, by all means, have at it. We love to hear new ideas and opinions.

Filed to:

  • JB

    NCAAs is not happening next year. If we don’t make the NIT then Crean will really be in the hot seat.

  • Rdkd02

    marchus….my sourse says IU leads for Zeller.

  • SeattleHoosier

    Aggregate GPA. If this goes up, the rest will follow.

  • 4iunfl

    Well here is a stab at plans for the future:
    -Consistenly improved play in transition
    -Fewer turnovers in the second half of close games
    -Improved FT %
    -Better interior defense

  • marcusgresham

    If this team wins 17, it will earn an NIT bid at the very least.

  • Dmglotz

    not going to inform us of the source?

  • slikyslim222

    Potentially yes, but there are a lot of “ifs” to overcome, so I would say that is unlikely. As a loyal IU fan I hope you are correct, however, the 'show me the money' side of me is not gonna bet the farm until I see tangible 'turning the corner' progress. Love your enthusiasm, but would recommend a pinch of patience,….and yes lay off the sauce until we earn a few tough victories.

  • Hardwood83

    I agree with this, and the consensus that seems to be generally: 1) Competitive- very few blowout losses and NONE at home. 2) Win the gimmes….and a couple of upsets. Do that and IU has a winning record and that equals 3) Post-season, NIT probably which is OK. I would love at least one post-season win (B10 tourney, NIT, whatever). 4) Recruiting- bring in Zeller & AE at least.

    As stated before this is really the first year that counts for CTC. Year 1 was really year 0. But now he has his team, although young, they need to show tangible progress. Any talk of job security is silly for next 2 seasons.

  • millzy32

    Rivers has all of the physical tools to be great at this because he is a great slasher and a pretty good ball handler but the finishing leaves too much to be desired. He can't pull up because he can't shoot and when he gets by all the defenders and chooses to pass he passes into traffic and turnovers occur. He is decent around the rim unless he gets fouled in which case he'll go to the line and clank a couple.

    We need a guard that can penetrate and make good decisions on the fly and knock down free throws. I don't think we have that on this team this year. This offense is designed for guards like Calipari gets. Elite guys like Wall, Evans, even Teague.

    We may be in for another rough year with this offense and our current players. Hopefully some adaptation is made to tailor this offense to suit the players we have. We have good players now I just don't know that we have the exact perfect players for this style of Offense.

  • millzy32

    Number 5 really strikes a chord with me. I live out of state and looked forward to watching on the big ten network. Sometimes I would hurry home from something so that I could catch the second half and then I would see the score and the lack of effort and shut it right back off.

    No more blowouts this year please. Stay in games. People say a loss is a loss but losing by 5-10 still feels a lot better than by 30. Recruits see those embarrassing big losses and are discouraged, you can't tell me they aren't.

  • JerryCT

    Brilliant Millzy ! Yes I keep thinking now as I did last year that perhaps a Flex , Princeton or some other motion offense would:

    1) take advantage of Hulls passing
    2) result in off ball screens to free up Watford and Jones more for scoring
    3) take advantage of post passing from Elston in particular and TP/Capo less so but both can pass
    4) reduce emotional pressure on Rivers

    In the Minn overtime game you will see a crucial score by Rivers on a backdoor pass from Elston …. a beautiful thing to see ……….. too bad that is classic Princeton and we do not run it.

  • Outoftheloop

    It is always about the Wins and the Loses. If IU wins 15 games, one against Purdue, then the season is a full step forward. If IU wins 20 games, then Crean is THE MAN! If IU wins 13 or less, then Crean has one more year to show he can do it.

  • marcusgresham

    If there's a “Tijan Jobe Night”, does the PA system blare the old Schoolhouse Rock song “Elbow Room”?

  • marcusgresham

    If…IF…IU competes for the Big 10 championship, Crean has to be a candidate for national coach of the year.

  • Outoftheloop

    Jerry I want the presentation on the Dribble-Drive, but there are too many “nut-cases” out there to actually give you my email address. Let's arrange one of those “spy drop” things. I am the guy in the grey hoodie behind you now!

  • marcusgresham

    “Help (will be) on the way.”

  • Outoftheloop

    Jerry all you dropped was a McDonald's bag with crusts and pickles, not even one fry!

  • Outoftheloop

    Oh, I see now it is all done in invisible ink. Very Cool.

  • Outoftheloop

    You are correct.

  • Uncle Joey

    Hey IUfanPurduePhD…… I've been hearing murmurs of Hummel possibly tweaking his knee even more so, and maybe prolonging his recovery time. Any truth to this? As someone who attends PU, I was hoping we could get your perspective. It could end up being 100% garbage, but I've been hearing it on a couple different message boards now.

  • Outoftheloop

    For some reason: players, scheme, coaching, etc. IU just can't beat WI or OSU. But that is still 4 more wins with one each over IL, NW, MI, and MN at home. Road wins will be tough until real team leadership emerges: Creek/Hulls must do it, so only one win vs MI is solid but one more at NW will tip the season to good not just OK, so at NW will be a dogfight, but let's say another win for 2. IU must beat Purdue in Bloomington! That is one more for a possible total of 11 wins in the Big Ten. But you are right we don't know the schedule yet to know who we will actually play at home and on the road, who we will play twice, etc. so 9-9 sounds good. Out of conference we lose to KY, maybe one in Las Vegas, Boston College has a new Coach, talent no better than ours, but it is an away game. So 9-3 would make 18-12, while 8-4 would make 17-13. The goal has to be a 20 win season! Let's do it IU!

  • Outoftheloop

    He will attend the Midnight event where he intends to go to school. That will be the sign!

  • Outoftheloop

    He will attend the Midnight event where he intends to go to school. That will be the sign!

  • Outoftheloop

    Very good reasoning.

  • Outoftheloop

    No!! Rivers, Oladipo and Sheehey have to play 15 minutes per game together and press, run, trap, attack, fast break, steal the ball, grab every loose ball, come from behind and block shots, sky for rebounds and generally be athletic kamikazes on the floor! That will be a tremendous change of pace for the opponent to deal with in every game.

  • Outoftheloop

    If IU does not win more than 13 games in 2010-11 then it will light the fuse that will either set of the explosion under Coach Crean after 2011-12 if we are not somewhere over 15-15, or fizzle out if we are 20-10 at that time.

  • IUfanPurduePhD

    It's summer which I'm not on campus much (not teaching this summer), so I haven't heard anything … that doesn't make it true or untrue, it just means that word travels slowly when 30,000 less people are around.

    Maybe I'm evil, but it would probably put a smile on my face if that rumor were true… nothing like the Tom-Brady's-knee-exploded type of smile I had a couple of years ago, but still, a small smirk would probably occur.

  • JerryCT

    I created a special email account just for you and others who want the Dribble Drive doc. Try [email protected] if you are interested and i will respond with it

  • tab1986

    Okay, I want to start by saying this, I am as passionate about Hoosier basketball as everybody else on this blog. That is why I am spending time on the clock in July reading all of these comments about basketball season.
    BUT…. I have to say that I think there are a lot of crazy people on this blog predicting we are going to win 18-20 games next season! The BIG TEN is going to be loaded!!! Michigan State, Purdue (kills me to write this), Illinois (kills me to write this too), Ohio State, and Wisconsin are going to be top 20 teams. Before conference season starts and these teams all start beating up on each other every night it would not suprise me if at least 3, maybe 4 are going to be top 10 in the country. IU can improve greatly this year but maybe not in terms of victories but rather by staying in ball games and giving the Hoosier Nation a reason to not start drinking adult beverages about the ten minute mark of the 2nd half. They will definately improve on last years win total but I have seen far too many people on here saying IU is going to win 10 or 11 Big Ten basketball games and folks that is just not going to happen next year in what is going to be the strongest conference in the country. I hope I'm wrong, but I think we need to step back and be more realistic. We DID NOT COMPETE with many of those teams last year. There is a progreesion, you don't lose games by 15-30 points in your conference at any level and come back and just magically go from back of the pack into the upper half. I'm not trying to be negative because I'm not, I'm just trying to keep expectations realistic. GO HOOSIERS

  • FWHoosier

    I generally agree with your assessment of Rivers, but were JR's turnovers in the lane evidence of his skill level or something else? Was it bad decision-making or just a lack of options with the ball? JerryCT provides a good snapshot of what this offense is supposed to look like but what we all saw on the floor was completely different. Here is why I think the offense didn't work last year (admittedly based on a fuzzy memory) and why all the turnovers.

    First, the younger players (except Creek) did not seem to fully understand thier roles early in the season and were often out of position. The players weren't familiar enough with each other to be able to anticipate where their teammates will be, which is important when your offense is based on barreling down the lane and making quick decisions with the ball.

    More importantly, the defensive intensity was poor and did not lead to any easy transition offense, which I don't think Jerry mentioned but I believe is an important component of the overall offensive scheme. After all, it seems to me that the Dribble Drive is a rough attempt at taking the principles of transition offense and applying them to the half court. A 5 on 5 break, if you will. Obviously, if the defense-offense transition can lead to an advantage in numbers, then breaking downt the defense in the 5 on 5 isn't even necessary.

    But, when in the half court, the three point shot is the key to spreading the floor and opening the lanes for the ball and the wing players to attack the basket with the dribble drive. Without a viable 3pt shooting threat, this offense easy to defend. Opponents did not respect the Hoosiers' outside shot last year and packed the lane or sat in a zone, which made drives to the bucket and passes in the lane very difficult. That lead to turnovers. I believe that CTC has frequently lamented that the loss of his best 3 pt shooters really killed the offense.

    It also didn't help that only Jones had the complete JerryCT package (could penetrate, pull up, hit the 3, make the extra pass) and was the focus of every defense. He drew a lot of attention during the Big Ten losing streak.

    I am much more hopeful for this year becuase, first, we will have guys that can hit the 3, which will open things up and allow the guards to work with space (penetrating and hitting the open man will be easier). Creek and Jones will both offer the complete package this year and, if Rivers improves his shooting (his FT shooting improved late last year), he could also have the complete package, which means multiple threats on the floor at the same time. If Hulls adds the ability to penetrate to his repetoire, as many suggest that he will, even another weapon is added. WS and VO provide added depth (and could surprise us in games) which hopefully translates into more defense intensity, a press, and more transition buckets.

    So, there are lots of reasons to be hopeful with the existing offense. And, being successful within the offense that CTC wants to run should mean an easier time recruiting the players that he needs to run it even better (AE, CZ, BY, HP…).

  • I actually read all the comments on here thus far (much to my own chagrin), and I must agree with some while disagreeing with others: Getting an NIT bid this season would be a great accomplishment for this team. Even though it's the rallying cry of CTC, “It's Indiana” is no excuse to decry any kind of postseason play this year. I for one would be delighted to get an NIT bid, because it opens up the potential of more basketball at the Hall. Would I like to get 20 wins and an NCAA berth? Sure. Do I believe this team could achieve that? Yes. Am I expecting them to do it? No. A 17-13 season with an NIT appearance would be a great building block for this team, and I look forward to seeing it all unfold up close and personal.

  • FWHoosier

    I get what you are saying about set the bar high. Ultimately, I think the team's goal should be to set out to win every single game the team plays and to compete from beginning to end (the proverbial do your best). I certainly don't think it is unhealthy for this team to go into each game believing that they can win it. The margin between good and bad in college basketball is very narrow. If they can achieve the goal of winning every game, then they certainly would win a championship, 1976 style. The team's goal should be set high and, even if they lose game one, the season is not a loss and they should persist in their endeavor to win each of their remaining games. That is the attitude the team must have and if they do have it, then I think they could really surprise people.

    However, as a bystander and not a member of the team, I won't measure their success on a championship or even 20 wins. I will not call them a failure for placing 7th in the Big Ten. I will measure their success based on whether their attitude reflects what I just described above. I will measure success of the team based on whether they truly compete in every game from beginning to end. I will measure success based on how the team responds to losses and whether they continue to fight.

  • Localsun77

    Measuring success is far from being subjective it is totally objective and measured by wins and losses. Same holds true in most things we do in life unfortunately. Post season play in my mind is the biggest goal for this team. GO HOOSIERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • FWHoosier

    I also have the gift of gab and tend to have lengthy posts. If promise to read mine, I promise to read yours.

    One point about youth. For me, it is less about game experience (though still a factor) and more about players being familiar with their teammates and the system. I think this will be the first year of the CTC era that more than half the team wasn't replaced in the off season. The first year was a complete overhaul and last year freshman made up half the team. this year, the core guys (minus Creek) will have been playing together for a year or more. The new guys will get to mold into a group of players that are familiar and comfortable with the system, the program, and just campus life and thier surroundings. They will actually have older players around who can provide guidance and set an example. I am very excited about that and it will only improve as these players become seniors and Crean balances out the classes.

  • FWHoosier

    Assuming those tings occur, and add in reliable depth from VO and WS and defenisive intensity, then yes I think a 5th or 6th place in the Big Ten and a win or two in the tourney is possible and that puts the Hoosiers squarely in the sights of the NCAA selection committee. I truly believe that the Hoosiers only need to be on the edge to get in, becuase the Hoosiers have drawing power and it makes a good story on TV. Yes, sometimes its more about politics and revenues then actual basketball skill.

    However, I won't raise my expectations that high. The NIT would be nice.

  • HoosierSmitty

    Well I've taken plenty of time off from commenting, but I've still kept tabs on things from afar. One of these days I'll reach 1,000 comments.

    Obviously we're all very interested in the next couple of recruiting classes. The 2011 class could have some big names, and if they wait for a while before signing, our success this season could impact their decisions as well as the 2012 guys. Kids coming to college not only want playing time, but they want to know that they'll be joining guys who can get the job done. I think we have those components on this team, but it's time for the guys to consistently win.

    With that said, looking toward this year I definitely want to see some more significant improvement in terms of wins and losses. Two seasons worth of moral victories is enough for me. It's too early to really tell just how good we can be, but if Mo Creek is back to around 100% by Big Ten season, I think we can have a solid year. I doubt he'll be 100% by the time the pre-Big Ten slate rolls around, but he'll still be a threat as he gets his feet back under him.

    I'm not saying I expect an NCAA berth or a Big Ten title…that's just too unrealistic in my opinion. What I want is…

    1.) no dumb losses/fewer boneheaded mistakes
    2.) at least a .500 season
    3.) Top 6 in the Big Ten race
    4.) A 4 or 5 game winning streak during the season
    5.) Some postseason experience in the NIT…at least one W in the NIT
    6.) Without questions some cohesive team play and demonstrated chemistry.
    7.) Continued passion and enthusiasm from the fans, players, and coaching staff
    8.) A BIG upset W (bigger than Pitt was last year)

    I don't think we can afford another lackluster season. Do you really think if we falter again this year, that we can make the NCAA tournament in 2011-2012 or if we do, be successful in the tournament? These guys need the postseason experience in the NIT before making the leap to the pressures of playing in the NCAA field. We also need a strong season to finally land those one or two big recruits that keep slipping through our fingers.

    This is a very pivotal year for the Hoosiers.

  • HoosierSmitty

    Agreed on watching 1/2 a game. I never thought I'd see the day where I couldn't stomach an entire game, but it happened last year and it was heartbreaking. I just couldn't take it anymore on more than a few occasions. Let's hope that never happens again!

  • Being consistent. Hell compete 40 min. success will be measured if or when the team face some adversity

  • JerryCT

    Incredibly brilliant breakdown by you. Really good

  • Outoftheloop


  • slikyslim222

    I tend to agree with Outoftheloop on this one, Dirk. Rivers plays well in many aspects, but just struggled running the point and had too many turnovers. Get him off the ball and he will feel less pressure and will shine. To phase him out would be more harmful than helpful.

    Rivers struggled because the whole team struggled, can't put it on him. They played young & foolish at times. They will be much better this year after learning the hard way.

  • To me success is going to be measured by how well our class for 2011 shapes up which I think hinges largely on our performance this coming year. How good we need to be to convince some top prospects to come to IU I don't know. I do know that we have to be better than last year at minimum. I would consider somewhere in the 15-17 win range success.

  • FWHoosier

    Just building on the foundation you laid.

  • Kelin Blab

    First welcome back to posting….I don't think anyone can stomach another 10 win season at all. That would be very dangerous for Crean and could affect 2011 and 2012 recruiting. I hate to say it, but hope to see….an NIT birth would be HUGE for IU this season.

  • FWHoosier

    maybe you could turn your analysis into a nice fan report for ITH

  • marcusgresham

    For me, it wouldn't even have to be an NIT bid—if this team were to make the CBI tournament that would be an extra couple of games and a couple of weeks more practice.
    That being said, I think, given that it's a Big 10 team, if this team has a record over .500 it would get an NIT bid.
    I agree that an 18-20 win season is fairly unrealistic unless four or five of those wins come via one of the two non-Big Dance postseason tournaments. I've said before I see this team as a .500 team, with a + – of 2 depending on good/bad breaks. I'd take 17-15 as a major step in the right direction.

  • Bpritch

    I would measure success as Indiana University fans supporting the team . You should be happy that you have a great group of guys who are working hard so that you can be proud of them.
    Beth Pritchard

  • justin

    1) Increased strength and hopefully increased mass among the players, especially Jones, Hulls, and Watford. Some players just cannot bulk up well but we should expect an off-season attitude that produced significant time with the trainers and adherence to the trainers' regimens from all players, as well as an understanding among the staff of how to design a program for Jones', Hulls', and Watford's unique needs.
    2) While we should expect Maurice Creek to be physically less than 100% coming into the season; we should also hope that he demonstrates above-average improvement in the mental aspects of the game, because of all the time he spent on the bench next to the coaches. Then we can hope that mental-is-to-physical really becomes as four-is-to-one for Maurice; he's a dynamite player.
    3) If the starting lineup is three guards/two bigs (the best possible of which, imo, would be Hulls, Jones, Creek, Watford, and Elston), that they can defend with intelligence and rebound with tenacity and intelligence (i.e., blocking out) from all five positions. If the starting lineup is two guards/three bigs (the best possible of which would have to be Jones, Creek, Watford, Elston, and Capo/Pritchard/Michel), that they can play offense with intelligence and constant tenacity, especially on the offensive boards.
    4) In relation to the above…and this is my principle expectation for Coach Crean…I felt as if Coach appropriately took the patient, long-view over the last couple of years in terms of what he was doing offensively and defensively. By this, I mean that he generally seemed to emphasize his scheme rather than his players' particular abilities in how he coached the last two teams. I fully supported that.

    Now, it is time to begin prioritizing his players' capacities. By the beginning of conference play at the latest, more than two-and-a-half years after he took over, the team should have a firm grasp of his philosophies, the full terminology, and the substantive mechanics of his system. If Coach taught well, he can tailor this year's offense and defense to his players without jeopardizing the long-term development of the program.

    For example, I think there is a real chance that Coach Crean's best line-up, theoretically, turns out to be Hulls, Jones, Creek, Watford, and Elston, as that is a pretty potent offensive group. It also lends itself to a nice substitution pattern with respect to the remainder of the bench. If this does indeed turn out to be the best theoretical line-up, then Coach needs to translate theory into reality by scheming to take advantage of such a unit's strengths and minimize the consequences of its obvious defensive liabilities, which is certainly doable.
    5) An increased use of switching defensive schemes mid-possession and throughout the game. I especially appreciate how Coach gets them to switch mid-possession. I'd love if this became a core of Indiana's defensive identity, a kind of thinking man's 40 minutes of he##. It could be really effective in the college game, particularly as Coach continues to increase the athleticism of the team.
    6) An increased presence in the passing lanes and high pressure further up the floor, though, again, intermittently as part of scheme switching.
    7) Having the toughness to push tempo, even when, generally in conference, good teams try to slow the game down.
    8) Along with the above, a real commitment to the secondary break.
    9) Better outside shooting from all players.
    10) Better on-ball and off-ball defense from all players, especially in regard to help in the lane.
    11) Better ability from all players to take contact and score or drive through it.
    12) A pull-up jumper for Watford.
    13) An understanding from Hulls that there are multiple techniques, suitable to any number of player types, to get into the lane.
    14) A Jeremiah Rivers who leads by example, with his particular example being rebounding, slashing, and defending like a lunatic freak in an off-the-ball, back-up role, albeit a lunatic freak who wants only what is best for the team.
    15) A team-wide understanding that a turnover is the single worst thing that can happen in the game of basketball, save game-ending injuries. Along with that, radically diminished tolerance of turnovers from Coach Crean.
    16) The above, to me, would be the market of a good Tom Crean IU team, in terms of how I've read the evolution of the program under him. If a good share of the above characterizes this team, I feel confident the team finishes above .500…in the 17-20 win range, with a real shot of going .500 in-conference. If that were to happen, given the strength of MSU, Purdue, and OSU, I also feel pretty sure that it would put them in the tournament. The committee will want the “comeback story” of IU in the tournament, if they can justify it. Plus, we draw ratings, plain and simple.
    16) An appreciation from all fans that a) the odds are better that they win powerball four straight times than Tom Crean is fired in the next four years and b) that V. Jones III is a heck of a player. So long as he is healthy, the next game V. Jones plays as a non-starter will be, hopefully, the summer after the first weekend in April, 2012. It definitely will not be while he is in an IU uniform.
    17) This is not something I've seen from the evolution of the team the last couple of years and is instead a personal preference, but I would like to see some curl routes off of off-the-ball screens set for Jones, Watford, and Elston…even Jeremiah Rivers with his ability to elevate. It can be easily set up from near to where we ball screen now, only the ball would be on the other side of the court; so the screen does not have to clog up the lane (though I'd also like to see a wee bit of screening in the lane, from time-to-time). I just think we have some personnel who could definitely profit from curl routes off of screens. Also, while I'm wishing, more give-and-go using Elston and Capo, depending on which is in the game. Again…this is just a wish, though I believe the give-and-go is a feature in some of Crean's offense.

  • Cmarksbe

    I think there are three levels of possible outcome. If IU fails to get to .500 and doesn't look tight on the floor and is uncompetitive like they were the last dozen games or so last year it'll be a failure and IU fans will question Crean's appropriateness for the job. I do think the school will be very patient and he isn't really going to be on the hotseat for a couple of years afterward but having another less than exciting year on the floor will put Crean on shaky base with some fans and the fringe people who drag him down on the internet will appear to be a majority on the internet at least.

    If they finish with a modestly successful season, .500 to 18 wins or so, and don't look really good on the floor I think that's hitting par. I think that'll help recruiting with the 2012 kids but still not get us up to the level where we fend off UK and UNC for the very best at home recruits. It would be a long term positive for the program and a solid step forward though.

    If we win 20 games or look really good at the end and come close to that I think IU can start to get some of its downhill momentum back. It could happen the year after if IU takes modest steps next year, and when it does IU will no longer be worrying about not being the top dog in-state with recruiting and will have enough juice to bring in better players than Creek and Watford from out of state as well as fend of the really big boys for the very best in-state players.

    I think IU jumped off to a big lead on PU for the 2012 in-state class and PU has jumped off to a lead in the 2013 class since they filled their 12 rides after IU appeared in better shape with DSR, Patterson, and their first choice of kids in that class. Butler is wonderful and I love what they've done, and they will continue to be a factor but they'll be on PU's level of recruiting at best and if IU gets back on its feet IU should be in best shape down the road.

  • IUfanPurduePhD

    It seems like the overall consensus is .500 … I speculated in one post that we'd have 9 based on a certain schedule–with a lot of luck–but I think I said something like, “all the cards would have fall in our favor.” I don't actually think 9 wins is going to happen, but it is possible.

    18 wins doesn't seem to be as crazy as you make it out to be. We need 10 non-conference wins, 7 in B10 play (.500), and one win in the B10 tourney. That doesn't seem too crazy. 20 seems to be pushing the line on sanity, but 18 is possible.