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With Big Ten season upon us, a look at the numbers

by in Commentary | December 27th, 2011

Twelve non-conference games in the books. And twelve victories for Indiana.

With an assist from KenPom, here’s a look at where the Hoosiers’ strong start stacks up with their conference foes as the Big Ten season kicks off this evening:

OFFENSE

No team in the conference boasts a more efficient offense than the Hoosiers heading into Big Ten play. KenPom currently ranks them as the No. 7 offensive in the nation in terms of adjusted offensive efficiency (115.8), though Ohio State (11th, 114.3) and Wisconsin’s slow-tempo-look-for-the-best-shot offense (12th, 114.0) aren’t far behind. (Adjusted offensive efficiency is the number of points a team scores per 100 possessions, which KenPom adjusts for level of competition.) From there, Northwestern (20th), Michigan (30th), Michigan State (33rd), Minnesota (38th) and Purdue (40th) round out the top 40. Though Illinois has played somewhat well and has spent time in the Top 25, the Illini’s offense (108th) has held them back.

Indiana sports the second-highest eFG% (57.7, 6th in the nation) in the conference behind Michigan (58.2, fourth in the nation) and its 3-point percentage (45.9 percent) is tops in the conference and good for second in the nation. The Hoosiers’ free throw rate (FTA/FGA) of 50.5 also tops the conference.

As we’ve seen, the offense has been a multi-pronged attack: easy buckets in transition, efficient scoring from Cody Zeller down low, slashing and mid-range work from Victor Oladipo and Will Sheehey, lots of free throws and deadly 3-point accuracy no matter what the situation. Add in an offensive rebounding percentage of 36.7 percent (57th in the nation) and Indiana is getting second-chance opportunities as well.

But conference play will test all this, as several Big Ten teams sport some of the best defenses in the country.

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That’s A Wrap: Team Defense

by in Commentary | March 31st, 2011

Welcome to “That’s A Wrap,” our attempt to make some sense of the 2010-11 season. Sit back. Relax. Grab some popcorn. Get your read on. Today: Indiana’s Team Defense.

Final Stats: 68.2 ppg, 43.3 FG %, 36.4 3PT %, 49.6 eFG %, 19.9% turnover percentage

Two bigs problems for Indiana’s defense this season.

You may know them already.

Its opponents’ free-throw rate of 50.2 percent ranked 333rd in the nation. Not one major conference program fared worse. This team fouled and fouled and fouled, and then fouled some more. Tom Pritchard (6.5 fouls per 40 minutes) Derek Elston (5.7) and Bobby Capobianco (10.7) were Indiana’s biggest culprits. But freshmen Will Sheehey (5.5)  and Victor Oladipo (4.8) contributed to the problem, as did Daniel Moore (5.0) in a limited role.

Most games the opponent held the advantage at the line. Twenty-plus attempts from the opposition was common. When your margin for error against quality Big Ten opponents is already small, giving away so many freebies can sink your ship fast. To put this in perspective, Indiana finished dead last during the conference season by allowing 473 free-throw attempts. Northwestern, which finished a spot ahead in 10th, allowed over 100 less at 358.

Indiana’s other defensive issue — one not in the box score or measured by advanced statistics — was a communication and assignment breakdown. Often, Indiana failed to execute in its half-court defense, leaving opposing players wide open for 3-pointers, something Film Session covered early and late. And a lack of strong communication between the five players on the court sometimes left Indiana scrambling to pick up the pieces as the opponent got a clean look at the basket.

Between the open looks and free throws, Indiana finished the season allowing 1.14 points per possession, which tied them for last in the Big Ten with Northwestern. And their adjusted defensive efficiency in-conference regressed year-over-year, too (111.8 in 2009-10 to 113.7 in 2010-11).

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Thirteen games in, a look at the numbers

by in Commentary | February 17th, 2011

A little over a month ago, I took a look at Indiana’s efficiency numbers just four games into the Big Ten season.

Things were not pretty on the defensive end.

Have things changed with a larger sample size?

Read on:

DEFENSE:

Last time around, Indiana ranked last in the Big Ten, as it was giving up 1.26 points per possession to its opponents. Though not a spectacular defensive squad now, the Hoosiers have improved. They now sit at 1.11 points per possession, ahead of only basement-dwelling Northwestern (1.15), tied with Michigan and just behind both Iowa (1.1) and Michigan State (1.1). So if Indiana flashes some solid D the rest of the way out, it’s possible it could leapfrog the Hawkeyes and Spartans and finish seventh or better in the conference in terms of defensive efficiency, provided Michigan and Northwestern don’t jump ahead of them.

Better communication, more resolve and less lapses have allowed the Hoosiers to defend the 3-point line better. After being up at 51.4 percent (eleventh) through four games, the team has now allowed Big Ten opponents to shoot 39.2 percent (ninth), ahead of Michigan State (42 percent) and Northwestern (39.5 percent). This has helped drop their opponents’ effective field-goal percentage from 59.9 percent (tenth in conference) to 51.9 (seventh).

Indiana has also done a better job of fouling less frequently, as their opponents’ free-throw rate has dropped from 69.5 (eleventh) to 53.6 percent. Mind you, this is still dead last in the league by a long shot, as Northwestern is tenth at 43 percent.

Again, not stellar, but it’s an improvement. This team is better defensively than their wayward start showed.

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Four games into Big Ten play, a look at the numbers

by in Commentary | January 12th, 2011

Four games is only representative of 22.2 percent of Indiana’s 18-game slog through the Big Ten schedule.

There are a lot of games left on the docket — which, may further downward spiral your funk about this team, or give you hope that not all is lost, depending on your current mental state in regards to these Hoosiers.

But in the interest of casting a wider net on what’s wrong with this team in the present, here’s a look at the numbers angle.

Onward:

DEFENSE

Let’s just get this out of the way first: Indiana’s defense has been terrible through four Big Ten games. They’re allowing the competition to score 1.26 points per possession, ranking them last in the league. They’re also 10th in the league in opponent effective field-goal percentage, allowing a mark of 59.9 percent. All those open threes aren’t helping matter here, as the Hoosiers are also dead last in opponent 3-point percentage at 51.4 percent.

The Hoosiers also struggle on the defensive glass, as their defensive rebounding percentage mark of 62.4 percent ranks 10th in the league. (Though, I suppose it bears a mention that Minnesota, an opponent of Indiana in these first four contests, is the top offensive rebounding team in the conference so far.)

And don’t forget the constant fouls, perhaps IU’s most egregious defensive weakness. Indiana’s opponent  free-throw rate is 69.5 percent, ranking the Hoosiers last in the conference in that department. They’ve allowed 130 foul-shot attempts. The next closest is Northwestern with 88.

Indiana isn’t so middling in terms of  block percentage (7.5 percent, seventh) steal percentage (eight percent, sixth), and opponent turnover percentage (fifth, 18.8 percent), but these defensive facets aren’t enough to overcome its shooting defense and rebounding shortcomings.

Allowing uncontested looks, second-chance attempts and a high rate of free throws is simply not a recipe for defensive success.

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A deeper look at Indiana’s strong start

by in Commentary | November 30th, 2010

BLOOMINGTON, IN - NOVEMBER 23: Christian Watford  of the Indiana Hoosiers shoots the ball while defended by Samuel Chasten  of the North Carolina Central Eagles at Assembly Hall on November 23, 2010 in Bloomington, Indiana. Indiana won 72-56. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)All stats below are from Ken Pomeroy, unless otherwise noted.

Six games in November against lesser talent isn’t an ideal measuring stick for any college basketball team. Yet, there still exists enough encouraging signs that even when the Hoosiers play more talented teams, they’ll be better equipped for success.

Let us count the ways:

1) Block percentage.

The first two years under Tom Crean, this team has been downright awful at getting off shots without the other team swatting them. In 2008-09, IU got 14.3 percent of its shots blocked — which ranked WORST IN THE NATION.

In 2009-10, IU fared better. But not by much. With 13.2 percent of its shots getting blocked, the Hoosiers finished 342nd out of 347 Division I team in this category.

Yeesh.

So far this season, IU has improved by a large margin. Hoosier opponents are swatting 8.1 percent of their shots, good for 124th in the nation.

Credit is due to this team — namely a guy like Christian Watford — bulking up over the summer and asserting a little more authority with their offensive game. IU also has more talent and experience in their rotation, which helps matters here as well.

It’s certainly not an elite mark. But even if the Hoosiers slide some, the days of ranking near the bottom of the country in this category appear to be over.

And more shots making their way to the rim equals more chances to score — which means a better shot at winning.

2) Much-improved defense.

Many have praised Indiana’s defense so far this season. But a peek at the numbers reveals this team is functioning at a higher level on D than you may have previously thought.

They are holding opponents to a 41.5 percent effective field-goal percentage (24th in the nation) and are creating turnovers on 27 percent of their opponents’ possessions (14th in the country). And in adjusted defensive efficiency (adjusted basically means how IU would perform against average competition at a neutral site), the Hoosiers are allowing 93.1 points per 100 possessions, which ranks 37th in the nation. They’re also allowing their opponents to grab just 26.6 percent of available offensive rebounds, good for 33rd in the nation.

That’s some stingy defense.

But the Hoosiers do have a weakness on D: Free-throw rate. Their opponents’ rate is 49.5, which ranks a woeful 290th in the country.

It’s certainly slipped past me, but outside of North Carolina Central, the Hoosiers have let their opponents get to the line 20 or more times in all contests with two games — Wright State (34) and Northwestern State (31) — topping 30 free throws.

IU has simply racked up the fouls too early in each half on many occasions, which is letting the opposition get to the line a lot. Whether this improves at all remains to be seen. But it’s certainly a black mark on what has been an impressive defensive performance thus far.

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That’s A Wrap: Lessons in PER

by in Commentary | March 19th, 2010

Welcome to “That’s A Wrap,” our attempt to um, wrap up the 2009-10 season. Sit back. Relax. Grab some popcorn. Get your read on.

I’m not sure how many of y’all are familiar with John Hollinger’s player efficiency rating (PER) for the NBA. So let’s go to a quick explanation of the metric from the man himself before we get started:

The player efficiency rating (PER) is a rating of a player’s per-minute productivity.

To generate PER, I created formulas — outlined in tortuous detail in my book “Pro Basketball Forecast” — that return a value for each of a player’s accomplishments. That includes positive accomplishments such as field goals, free throws, 3-pointers, assists, rebounds, blocks and steals, and negative ones such as missed shots, turnovers and personal fouls.

Two important things to remember about PER are that it’s per-minute and is pace-adjusted.

Because it’s a per-minute measure, it allows us to compare, say, Jordan Farmar and Derek Fisher, even though there is a disparity in their minutes played.

I also adjust each player’s rating for his team’s pace, so that players on a slow-paced team like Detroit aren’t penalized just because their team has fewer possessions than a fast-paced team such as Golden State.

Make sense?

Well, Hollinger, for the first time, has busted out PER for the college ranks — something he released last week. They revealed some interesting things. For instance, DeMarcus Cousins’ PER of 35.45 — league average PER is 15.00 in the NBA, and I’d assume that would follow for the NCAA — ranks No. 1 in the country. Teammate John Wall, the surefire No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA Draft?

He didn’t crack the Top 100.

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