Earlier this year, most recruiting services viewed Zeller as a three-star or a four-star prospect. Many would have argued for East Chicago Central’s Angel Garcia or Warren Central’s Walter Offutt as the top 2008 prospect from the state of Indiana.

However, after an off-season of improvement and strong AAU play in the spring, Zeller shot up the charts and became a high priority for several schools. Scout.com put him in their top 20 and Rivals.com put him in their top 25. His play has also made him a firm favorite for the title of Mr. Basketball.

So what was behind Zeller’s rise as a prospect? His confidence finally caught up to his potential.

“The biggest factor was, and Tyler and I’ve had conversations about this, he simply wasn’t ready,” Scout.com National Recruiting Director Dave Telep said. “When there’s a player like Tyler Zeller with a family history of size and being a high major player, you make sure you pay that guy a little extra attention. It wasn’t Tyler’s time until this year and once he seemed comfortable and confident, things just exploded for him.”

“It has happened like that for other guys in the past,” Telep added. “Andrew Bynum (now of the Los Angeles Lakers) was the same way. You always kind of knew that he was going to be a prospect. When his confidence level started equaling his potential, he really started getting good in a hurry. I think the same thing happened with Tyler.”

Garcia, ranked No. 27 overall in the class of 2008 by Rivals.com, chose Memphis over Indiana. Garcia moved to the U.S. last season and played at East Chicago (Ind.) Central High. He played this summer for the Puerto Rican National Team at the under-19 championships in Serbia, where Memphis assistant coach Chuck Martin traveled to watch him play.

While not a favorable outcome for the Hoosiers, coach Sampson and staff still have a shot at landing Tyler Zeller and Kevin Jones to help round out the 2008 class. The early buzz last winter was that Garcia was leaning towards IU, but it’s no secret that things can change in the blink of an eye in recruiting and the impact Martin had on this recruitment was more than I originally believed it to be.

Best of luck to Mr. Garcia at Memphis, where I believe he’ll thrive under Calipari’s up-tempo style and reach his goal of getting to the NBA.

He’s been kind enough to share his e-mail and the response he received from Wolken with all of the readers, so thanks are in order for that.

First, here’s what Kelin sent over to Wolken:

Dan-

As an Indiana guy I think you are way off on the Garcia prediction. IU has no one at his position after this year and the style of play will vastly change given the type of players we have in this year’s class and next year. With Eric Gordon, Jamarcus Ellis and other “transition type” players, the days of the motion offense are gone. Yes Calipari produces NBA guys…lets not forget Dajuan Wagner! I think Memphis has a shot but the reasons you are stating really don’t hold the weight. I am for certain Indiana will receive far more national exposure than Memphis over the next few years, including this year. Being an Indiana kid, I think Angel knows that.

And here’s the response Wolken gave with his rationale:

Thanks for your note.

Every fan of every school thinks every recruit should come there and can give a list of reasons why, and I’m fine with that. I’m not a fan, so I base all my commentary on what I observe and what I’m told from my sources. I based my prediction about Garcia on the following factors:

1) Calipari has gotten many players from Puerto Rico over the years, both at UMass and Memphis. This is not a coincidence. If Garcia comes to Memphis, he’ll also be playing for an assistant coach who is Puerto Rican.

2) There is a pretty stark difference between Memphis and Indiana in style of play. Memphis is selling that hard.

3) Whether you think it’s true or not, Calipari is perceived in the basketball/recruiting world as a coach who gets players ready to go to the NBA.

4) Angel isn’t an Indiana kid. He’s from Puerto Rico.

5) Memphis is on ESPN/ESPN2/CBS 10-15 times per year, which is about as many as any program outside of Duke. They’re No. 1 or No. 2 this year in every preseason poll. Outside of Duke, Carolina, Kentucky, UCLA and Florida, Memphis gets about as much national exposure as any.

Like I said yesterday, I’m thinking this could go either way. With Garcia, Tyler Zeller and Kevin Jones all still possibilities for this class, you can’t say enough about the recruiting job that Coach Sampson and staff have done. It’s been nothing short of remarkable. If one of these kids come to IU, we’re looking at another top five class. If two of them come, you’re probably looking at a top two or three class.

By the way, I haven’t forgotten about the All-Big Ten preview. That’ll be back next week as I’ll reveal the fourth player on the first team as well as my pick for player of the year.

1. Forward Angel Garcia will commit to Memphis in the next few weeks: The talented 6-11 Puerto Rican told Rivals.com is deciding between the Tigers and Indiana. That’s very good news for Memphis, which badly wants Garcia to go along with already committed twins Marcus and Markieff Morris from Philadelphia. The Tigers are a better fit for Garcia’s style of play — similar to Shawne Williams — and have a big edge due to John Calipari’s history of developing players for the NBA. It also helps that assistant coach Chuck Martin is of Puerto Rican descent.

Mr. Wolken may end up being correct, but at this point, I’d say it’s a total crap shoot on where Garcia ends up. I’ve always heard that he likes Indiana first and foremost, but I wouldn’t count out John Calipari and his hair gel.

And I don’t buy the fact that having an assistant coach with Puerto Rican descent will end up making much of a difference, but hey, I could be totally off base. By my estimation it comes down to the tradition of the program, the coach, the facilities, the atmosphere around the campus and the style of play. What Memphis and IU have to offer are both very different.

It’ll be interesting to watch Garcia’s recruitment unfold over the next couple of weeks.

There was speculation that Garcia could end up at Florida or Louisville, but according to his AAU coach, both of those schools have been eliminated, per Jerry Meyer of Rivals.com (subscription required).

“It’s down to Indiana and Memphis,” said CAPS All Stars coach Eric Cole. “They have both been with him the longest and even watched him in Serbia. Angel really appreciated that. Those two schools worked the hardest to recruit him.”

I’ve really got no idea where Garcia will end up, but I’ve heard from various sources since last winter that Indiana is the school to beat for Garcia. The only concern seems to be with his academics. Will Garcia have the necessary coursework completed to be a freshman in the fall of 2008?

If Coach Sampson and staff are able to add Garcia to the already assembled group of Ebanks, Mackey and Roth, we’re going to be looking at a second straight top five class. Throw in the fact that Tyler Zeller is also a possibility and the future is looking mighty bright in Bloomington.

Florida had been considered a dark horse for Garcia up until recently, with Indiana leading the pack and Memphis and Louisville close behind.

However, with the commitment by Tony Woods to Wake Forest, Garcia may now be the top priority for Billy Donovan and staff.

According to a report on Gator Country, the self proclaimed insider authority of Gator sports, Garcia may be ready to make a pledge to Florida upon his return from the 2007 FIBA U19 World Championships.

With Woods off the board, Florida’s big man recruiting centers around 6-10 Angel Garcia of East Chicago (IN) Central, who is playing with the Puerto Rican national team in Serbia this week. Speculation is that Garcia will commit to the Gators when he returns from Europe.

Personally, I’d be quite shocked and disappointed if this report turns out to be true. Garcia was the second best player I saw on the floor in this year’s state championship game against North Central, when he helped lead the Cardinals to the title.

He’s a versatile big man who can play inside and out. He can put it on the floor, hit the three, block a shot and rebound. The only question with Garcia is whether he’ll be able to qualify academically for the fall of 2008.

For now, I’ll hold out hope that Garcia could still end up a Hoosier and wait to hear what he has to say upon his return from Serbia.