What to expect: Duke

  • 11/29/2017 8:21 am in

Indiana welcomes the No. 1 team in the country on Wednesday night as Duke comes to Bloomington for the Big Ten-ACC Challenge. It will be the ninth all-time meeting between the schools and the Blue Devils lead the series, 5-3.

The game will be broadcast at 9:30 p.m. with Dan Shulman, Jay Bilas and Maria Taylor on the call:

Indiana’s brutal five-game stretch begins tonight with the country’s unanimous No. 1 team, Duke. The Blue Devils are already battle tested this season with neutral court wins over Michigan State, Texas and Florida, but the trip to Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall will be their first road game of the season.

The results for the Big Ten thus far in the challenge have been less than impressive. The ACC is 6-1 and both Duke and North Carolina are double-digit favorites tonight. Eight wins will clinch the annual series between the ACC and the Big Ten.

The Hoosiers have three straight wins following a 16-point loss to Seton Hall on Nov. 15, but we’ll soon find out how much progress has been made in the two weeks since that loss. Duke is a legitimate No. 1 and the nation’s most talented team. Is Indiana up to the challenge?

MEET THE BLUE DEVILS

After watching John Calipari rule one-and-done recruiting at Kentucky for several years, Mike Krzyzewski has adapted and is thriving by recruiting one-year players. This year’s Duke roster is no different as the Blue Devils have several prospects who could hear their names called in June’s NBA draft.

The Blue Devils start four freshman alongside senior guard Grayson Allen, one of college basketball’s best scorers and a player opposing fans love to hate. Allen looked to be on the fast track to the NBA after a few notable performances during Duke’s run to the 2015 national championship, but has opted to stay all four years.

On a below average 3-point shooting team, Allen is Duke’s consistent threat from the perimeter. He’s making more than three 3s per game and is shooting 44 percent. Through eight games, his 16.5 points per game are second on the team.

Joining Allen in the backcourt are Trevon Duval and Gary Trent Jr., a pair of dynamic freshmen. Duval was one of the nation’s top point guards in the class of 2017 and is averaging 6.5 assists per game. He’s also third on the team in scoring at 13.1 points per game despite shooting just 13 percent on 3s. Duval has been efficient finishing at the rim (69 percent) and also has a team-high 19 steals.

Trent Jr. is struggling from the perimeter so far (15-of-45 on 3s), but still boasts high efficiency numbers because he doesn’t turn it over. He’s one of four Blue Devils averaging in double figures (12.6 ppg). Freshman Alex O’Connell comes off the bench and is making close to 55 percent of his 3s, albeit on limited attempts.

Duke’s backcourt is one of the nation’s best, but the frontcourt is arguably the best. Freshman Marvin Bagley III, who reclassified from the 2018 class to 2017, is a prime contender to be the No. 1 pick in June’s NBA draft.

Bagley’s numbers through eight games are ridiculous: 22.3 points and 11.3 rebounds in 30.9 minutes per game. He’s shooting 62.5 percent on 2s and his ball skills at 6-foot-11 are incredible. It’s early, but he currently sits atop several national player of the year lists.

He’s joined up front by freshman Wendell Carter, a 6-foot-10, 260 pound freshman who is making 62.3 percent of his 2s and is averaging 12.9 points and 9.1 rebounds per game.

Backing up Bagley and Carter are sophomore Marques Bolden, a McDonald’s All-American and 6-foot-10 sophomore Javin DeLaurier. DeLaurier is averaging four points, five rebounds and a block in 13.5 minutes per game.

TEMPO-FREE THOUGHTS

Duke presents plenty of challenges for Indiana, but rebounding is the No. 1 strength of this Blue Devil team. Duke is rebounding 43.2 percent of its missed shots through eight games, which is No. 1 in the country. Bagley and Carter are terrific on the offensive glass.

Duke is also turning it over on just 16.1 percent of its possessions, which is impressive for a team starting four freshmen. If there’s a weakness with Duke, it’s been free throw shooting (67.3 percent) and 3-point shooting (34.1 percent). But neither of those issues have mattered much as the Blue Devils currently own the nation’s best offense, according to Ken Pomeroy.

For Indiana to keep the game competitive, the Hoosiers are going to have to take care of the ball, keep Duke off the offensive glass and make 3s. Duke has played a lot of zone, which could be a good thing for Indiana given they’ve played two straight games against zone defenses.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

Indiana has been very good in recent history against ranked teams in Bloomington, but this is arguably the most talented team to come to Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall since Kentucky in 2011.

All of the numbers suggest Duke should win the game comfortably, but there are a few things that could factor into keeping it interesting. Duke played three games in four days on the west coast over the weekend. Will travel and fatigue factor in at all? This will also be the first hostile road environment that several of Duke’s players will experience. How will they respond? If Duke starts slow like they have in several recent games, it could put the Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall faithful into a frenzy.

The Ken Pomeroy projection is Duke by nine and the Vegas line, which opened with Duke as a 10-point favorite, is now 11 as of Wednesday morning. Sagarin’s projection is Duke by 12.

With two key conference games following tonight’s game and then games against Louisville and Notre Dame, we’ll quickly have a better idea of where the Hoosiers stand in year one of the Archie Miller era.

(Photo credit: Duke Athletics)

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  • Ivan Renko

    Vic sure played like a lottery pick against UK, 2 huge slams in traffic and his smooth shake and bake on kidd-gilchrist for the jumper.

    I’m hoping you’re right that our guys turn out that way too!

  • John D Murphy

    Quite frankly IU is playing with house money tonight. All the recruits are watching this game. They are seeing the crowd and they are hearing about Archie all game long. If we get beat by a lot the current players work even harder (like ISU). If we lose by a few, we know that anyone else on the schedule is within reach. And if somehow IU pulls the upset, the rocket will have been lit on this program.

  • Dsct1

    I expect nothing more or less than every game. Get out there and give all you have. Get tough on D, play smart and loose on O. Hustle. Pick each other up. You are IU and that means something, let them know and everyone else know they must earn everything when they set foot on the court with you!

  • bball at nick’s

    Nice try, Mr. Humfleet. LOL.

  • bball at nick’s

    I’m starting to think I really do want you to stick around. What is ITH without the token clown? LOL.

  • bball at nick’s

    What ya mean? We do have something to lose. A game! And we’re not losing it. Dpuke should be scared as heck coming into AH.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Indiana by 6.

  • bball at nick’s

    We win 83-81.

  • AndyCapp

    lol, SCORE!

  • Ivan Renko

    man I’m getting that excited/nervous feeling in my chest, the same one I would get before basketball games in middle school and high school.

    I’ve been watching youtube videos of the Wat Shot to get myself pumped for tonight. I was lucky to be at the UK game, my K201 final ended right at 7 and I sprinted from the Foster computer lab to my seats with my friends in the first row of the balcony, section AA, right as tip-off happened. still have the ticket taped to my Assembly Hall poster.

    a friend in my group sold his ticket for $30 before the game, which was the face value, because he preferred the money to “watching us get killed”. we called him “face value” the next 3.5 years!

    sorry for the story basket story. just hoping for a magical night for IU hoops again like it was on Dec 11, 2011

  • Piker

    I have watched the WAT shot 7 times, I have 7 of my most special IU memorabilia including my 75-76 32-0 mug and 7 Hair Triggers to go with it. Going to be a great night in the Hall. Cannot count out the hoosiers at home ever. Quaff on my fellow hoosier faithful.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Enjoy the game Ivan!

  • bball at nick’s

    The lucky duck who purchased the $30 ticket. LOL.

  • bball at nick’s

    Wow, how’s the energy around you?

  • Ivan Renko

    you too! unfortunately I can’t be at AH. but I’ll be watching from the IU bar in NYC with other Hoosier fans.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    That’s a great alternative!

  • AndyCapp

    lol.yup… if nothing else Mlarkey is easy to laugh at!

  • bball at nick’s

    NYC, man, I’m jealous. You have the best of both worlds tonight. And there really are only two worlds, LOL. I used to live in NYC and miss it like heck.

  • AndyCapp

    Impressive, you can do 1st grade math… pUKe graduate I assume?

  • AndyCapp

    Nope in Montana, but will be watching for you! Get the student section yeliin like it was 2011!

  • AndyCapp

    Yeh SH, Know it may be awhile before you get in so what’s the vibe at SSAH?

  • AndyCapp

    LOL, what a crappy nickname to be remembered by! Sure he never heard the last of it. Funny story Ivan, thanks for sharing… MAN I am getting pumped!

  • bball at nick’s

    He’s starting to get a little funnier now that he seems to have accepted his role. LOL.

  • AndyCapp

    I did too bball! 😀

  • Ivan Renko

    I’m loving it so far out here too, only been here a few years. luckily there’s a great IU alumni base. amazing atmospheres for the 2016 UK and Purdue wins and last year’s Kansas and UNC wins. I even met Max Bielfeldt during last year’s Kansas game and had a short chat. Told me how he was so happy to have ended up at IU and wouldn’t trade the fanbase for anything (aka michigan’s) haha!

  • AndyCapp

    Nicely said John. I don’t see a losing scenario for us tonight no matter the outcome

  • AndyCapp

    LOL, and he does it with such ease

  • bball at nick’s

    I’m sure then you folks are sending some special love to Devonte. Let’s win one for the Hoosier Yank, LOL.

  • Ivan Renko

    you betcha!

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Ah yes, The Mucky Duck in Captiva

  • AndyCapp

    LOL, who wouldn’t!

  • AndyCapp

    Agreed on both counts Ole Man!

  • VOXAC30

    We win by 7

  • inCMitrust

    Watched many IU games in NYC. What is a good IU spot nowadays?

  • MrNobody

    Don’t care how ugly we make this. Clifton n thriller can foul out. Hope Clifton learns from playing against or watching Bagley. Go Hoosiers.

  • Ivan Renko

    Carraghers in midtown, reservoir by union square, and durden in east village!

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Indiana by 6.?????????

  • StudentHoosier

    Still in line…. crazy how passionate these fans are! I’ll be getting the balcony rocking! T minus 90 minutes! People are going nuts! GO HOOSIERS!

  • AndyCapp

    LMAO, I can almost envision the stories they tell their grandkids…
    I remember back in my playing days the most obnoxious Hoosier fan God ever created… I wonder where he is now?
    On ITH, of course!

  • AndyCapp

    Say whattttt?!? LMAO

  • AndyCapp

    You’re on it sarge!

  • AndyCapp

    That is usually from where your comments are derived, not thinking

  • AndyCapp

    I can think of a place… same one where your thoughts usually come from

  • AndyCapp

    LMAO, perfect

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Incredible crowd excitement!

  • HoosierOne

    Great game. Proud of the way our guys played and enjoyed watching all the way through. Great teamwork, great coaching, and a great run against an unbelievable team.