Tourney Watch: Indiana’s NCAA hopes continue to fade

  • 02/14/2017 9:14 am in

Welcome to “Tourney Watch,” our weekly look at Indiana’s 2016-2017 NCAA tournament resume.

This week’s edition takes a look at the damage done by IU’s losses to Purdue and Michigan, IU’s current nitty gritty profile, bracket projections and much more.

Overview

At 15-11, Indiana is no longer projected to make the NCAA tournament. The Hoosiers have dropped five of their last six games. Complicating their path back to the right side of the bubble is a schedule that includes four of five on the road to close the regular season.

Indiana’s losses this past week – at home to Purdue and at home to Michigan – were two setbacks the Hoosiers simply could not afford.

The Hoosiers have just one game this week and it comes on Wednesday night in Minneapolis against a Minnesota team looking to solidify an NCAA tournament berth. The Gophers have won three in a row.

Nitty Gritty Profile

· Record: 15-11 (5-8 Big Ten)
· RPI: 91 (75 last week)
· SOS: 46 (via CBS) (54 last week)
· Home Record: 13-4
· Away Record: 1-5
· Neutral Court Record: 1-2
· vs. RPI Top 50: 3-7 (via Crashing the Dance)
· vs. RPI Top 51-100: 3-3 (via Crashing the Dance)

Bracket projections

· ESPN Bracketology (Joe Lunardi): First Four Out (updated Feb. 13)
· CBS Sports (Jerry Palm): Not in the field (updated Feb. 13)
· Assembly Call (Andy Bottoms): First Five Out (updated Feb. 14)
· Crashing the Dance: Not in the field (unchanged from last week)
· Bracket Matrix: Next Four Out

Here’s a little more from Andy:

It’s tough to believe that a team with wins over Kansas and North Carolina would miss the tournament, but that’s where the Hoosiers are right now. Sure, injuries have played a factor, but IU has just one win over a tournament caliber team since December 1, and a weak non-conference schedule has their RPI sitting in the 90s. The Hoosiers are just 8-11 against the Top 200, and this week’s trip to Minnesota starts a stretch where they play four of their final five games on the road.

Final record projections

Three weeks ago, KenPom.com projected the Hoosiers to finish 20-11 overall and 10-8 in the conference. That projection is now 17-14 and 7-11. RPIForecast.com has the three most likely final regular season records for IU as: 18-13 (33%), 19-12 (27.3%) and 17-14 (20.2%).

A look at the conference as a whole

The Big Ten is currently a seven bid league on the most recent Bracket Matrix with Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State and Michigan in the field.

Michigan, with wins over Michigan State and Indiana last week, is back in many projections as of Monday.

As the season moves along, we’ll dig more into each team’s projections, but Bracket Matrix (updated Feb. 13) currently has Wisconsin and Purdue as No. 5 seeds, Maryland as a No. 6 seed, Northwestern and Minnesota as No. 7 seeds, Michigan State as a No. 10 seed and Michigan as a No. 11 seed.

2017 Tournament Sites

· First Four: Dayton
· First, second rounds: Buffalo, Greenville, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Orlando, Salt Lake City, Sacramento, Tulsa
· Regional: Kansas City, Memphis, New York, San Jose
· Final Four: Phoenix

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  • BruceA

    How sad is this season? I would actually be happy if we end up three games over .500. This team has lost (not just injuries) its way for whatever reasons. I sure hope they find their way back but it doesn’t look too good. Still for the Cream n’ Crimson regardless!

  • dssnyder

    8-11 against the top 200 unreal

  • Sherronhasaheadache

    They were done 2 weeks ago, pathetic. its all on you Crean

  • JethroTroll

    Think about this for a moment: IU has a VERY realistic chance of finishing B1G play at 6-12 or WORSE!! That’s completely unacceptable, and Crean not only needs to be fired at the end of the year, he DESERVES to be.

  • pcantidote

    I’m not a season ticket holder but I really hope everyone comes out and supports the team and especially Colin Hartman for the last home game. It would be really sad to see a bunch of empty seats for what may be his last game.

  • pcantidote

    By comparison, Mike Davis’ worst season in the B1G was 7-9.

  • JethroTroll

    The IU fanbase, if nothing else, loves the Hoosier program and supports it. If IU is going to indeed honor Hartman on Senior Night, they’ll show up.

  • Fifer39

    Well said. So that does mean we can expect a decision on him returning by senior night? He’s the only one, so there isn’t really a senior night if he’s coming back.

  • Jim Miller

    I would guess if it is still up in the air they have it anyway, just in case.

  • The Jim Mora “Playoff” rant comes to mind…

  • Sandra Wilson

    Yeah, maybe we can get him back to turn things around…..His last 4 years at I.U. we finished 6th, 9th, and tied for 4th twice, then he was fired at UAB….He also recruited Indiana about as well as Crean….Are you sure you don’t want to discuss the Purdue double foul any further ?…It’s just about as relevant.

  • Ole Man

    Read my mind!

  • pcantidote

    Yikes, that went right over your head. Looks like someone needs a nap.

  • DonaldneedsAsafeSpace

    And Mike Davis got max 5 years. We are on year what, 8?

  • NIT champs baby!!!!

  • just a fan

    After the Ft. Wayne game I was scratching what’s left of my hair saying “This ain’t good”…a minor league team, and they figured out how to stop IU’s offense, in effect how to completely stop it from setting up…and that’s not even mentioning how perfectly they passed the ball to totally break down IU’s defense. Well, the rest of the season has played out exactly as I feared, every other team we’ve played has done a game film study–to terrible effect for IU. I don’t mean this to be a CTC bashing, but right now we’re the definition of insanity. On second thought… is the Ft Wayne coach in the market for a higher profile job?

  • pcantidote

    Just to correct the record, the FW coach didn’t invent that game plan. That film on how to attack IU on both ends of the floor has been out there for years. Relentless dribble drives on offense / man defense that switches everything on the the weave on defense. Some coaches are too arrogant to stray away from what they do to use that game plan, but for the coaches who do it — such as Pat Chambers and Tim Miles, just for example — the results are predictable.

  • Hoosier Fanatic

    I am afraid that the ceiling for this years team now is just making the NIT. I am not sure they can even win a game in that tournament as sad as that is to say.

  • Kwang

    If they make the NIT, they will probably not have home court advantage.

  • Larry Brown

    Is he not going to red shirt?

  • Larry Brown

    Now don’t forget, there are several guys on the team NBA ready. Just keep telling yourself that. Regardless of the outcome this season. And try to keep a straight face when they hold press conferences tto announce their decisions.

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  • Fifer39

    Makes sense.

  • Fifer39

    His decision according to TC but he gets his Masters this summer.

  • JethroTroll

    9. You know what you have after 9 years, and it’s clear that it’s time to move on.

  • calbert40 – AC000000

    He completes his Master’s Degree this year? If that’s true, he’d have to go into a Ph.D program to retain eligibility.

  • calbert40 – AC000000

    On the bright side, they have plenty of opportunity to get some good road wins down the stretch…

  • millzy32

    We may not get an invite. CBT champs baby.

  • millzy32

    Stranger things have happened. I’m not sure when but I think they have.

  • Fifer39

    That’s what TC is reported as saying in the radio show news and notes article.

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  • Susan

    SusanG
    I think this IU team has what it takes to make it to the Final Four, but for whatever reason, not this year. Stay together, Hoosiers, because I think next year you will dominate! There is so much talent and these last four losses seemed to be more about small miscalculations at the crucial last seconds, not because this team doesn’t have the magic to make it happen. That is correctable and I know they can do it. Hang in there Hoosiers, because I have faith that next year will be your year!

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