Tourney Watch: Home games represent major opportunity for IU

  • 02/07/2017 9:36 am in

Welcome to “Tourney Watch,” our weekly look at Indiana’s 2016-2017 NCAA tournament resume.

This week’s edition takes a look at last week’s performances by the Hoosiers, IU’s current nitty gritty profile, bracket projections and much more.

Overview

At 15-9, Indiana already has more losses this season than it did all of last season. Indiana split a pair of games last week as the Hoosiers beat Penn State at home in three overtimes and then fell 65-60 to Wisconsin in Madison.

With seven games to play, the Hoosiers need to go 4-3 the rest of the way to finish at least .500 in conference play. Indiana has two games remaining against Purdue and one against Northwestern, two teams that will both be in the tournament.

This week looms large for Indiana as two of the Hoosiers remaining three home games are Thursday (Purdue) and Sunday (Michigan). A pair of wins could significantly boost the resume while a pair of losses would put the Hoosiers in serious jeopardy of missing the tournament without a major run in the Big Ten tournament.

Nitty Gritty Profile

· Record: 15-9 (5-6 Big Ten)
· RPI: 75 (82 last week)
· SOS: 54 (via CBS) (63 last week)
· Home Record: 13-2
· Away Record: 1-5
· Neutral Court Record: 1-2
· vs. RPI Top 50: 3-6 (via ESPN)
· vs. RPI Top 51-100: 3-2 (via ESPN)

Bracket projections

· ESPN Bracketology (Joe Lunardi): 11 seed in South Region vs. Clemson in Dayton as part of “First Four” (updated Feb. 6)
· CBS Sports (Jerry Palm): 11 seed in Midwest Region vs. Notre Dame in Salt Lake City (updated Feb. 5)
· Assembly Call (Andy Bottoms): 10 seed in South Region vs. Xavier in Orlando (updated Feb. 7)
· Crashing the Dance: Not in the field (unchanged from last week)
· Bracket Matrix: Third No. 10 seed

Indiana is still in the tournament in many projections, but the Hoosiers are a No. 10 seed or lower in most projections. The Crashing the Dance model has Indiana out of the tournament for a second straight week.

Here’s what ESPN.com’s bubble watch wrote on Tuesday morning about IU’s chances:

November feels so long ago. On Nov. 11, in their season-opener, the Hoosiers beat Kansas 103-99 in overtime on a neutral court in Honolulu. A couple of weeks later, they convincingly handled North Carolina in Bloomington. James Blackmon Jr. was having a lights-out scoring campaign. Life was grand. It has been all downhill since. The Hoosiers are 5-6 after their first 11 Big Ten games, including a 30-point loss at Michigan on Jan. 26 and a 13-point loss at Northwestern on Jan. 29. OG Anunoby was lost to an injury; Blackmon, who has spent much of his career battling injuries, followed suit. Worst of all, the Hoosiers didn’t win enough to cover up the empty calories they gorged on in nonconference play, including six against teams ranked outside the RPI top 280. Like all empty calories, these linger far beyond their up-front enjoyment, and have thus placed the Hoosiers — who had November’s best pair of nonconference wins — firmly on the bubble moving forward. Yikes.

Final record projections

Two weeks ago, KenPom.com projected the Hoosiers to finish 20-11 overall and 10-8 in the conference. For the past week, that projection has dropped to 18-13 and 8-10. RPIForecast.com has the four most likely final regular season records for IU as: 19-12 (28.9%), 18-13 (26.9%), 20-11 (18.8%) and 17-14 (15.1%).

A look at the conference as a whole

The Big Ten is currently a seven bid league on the most recent Bracket Matrix with Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State and Indiana in the field.

Michigan, with a home loss to Ohio State last week, has fallen out of many projections. No other Big Ten teams are under serious consideration at this point. Iowa, which is sitting at 6-5 in league play, could perhaps get into the conversation if it can get to 11 conference wins.

As the season moves along, we’ll dig more into each team’s projections, but Bracket Matrix (updated Feb. 6) currently has Wisconsin as a No. 3 seed, Purdue as No. 5 seed, Maryland as a No. 6 seed, Northwestern as a No. 7 seed, Minnesota as No. 8 seed and Michigan State as a No. 9 seed.

2017 Tournament Sites 

· First Four: Dayton
· First, second rounds: Buffalo, Greenville, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Orlando, Salt Lake City, Sacramento, Tulsa
· Regional: Kansas City, Memphis, New York, San Jose
· Final Four: Phoenix

Filed to:

  • vicbert caladipo

    OK retract Izzo is now chewing him out , but guess what…the idiot is barking back and won’t make eye contact. There’s no place for this type of behavior.

  • vicbert caladipo

    Shades of IU in Ann Arbor. Halftime 55-29 UM.

  • IdahoHoosier

    Good thought on making the coaching change before the deadline to ensure a smoother transition. Though I wonder if IU would really do it or opt to save money. I agree that a coaching change doesn’t mean every player on the roster transfers, but players have been using coaching changes as an excuse to transfer for years.

    I’m not suggesting IU settles for mediocrity, and have posted numerous times that a coaching change is probably a smart idea. But I get the feeling some posters here are just yelling for CTC’s removal with no consideration for things like the school’s money, a valid replacement, and how it affects the current roster and recruiting. These things and others should be considered carefully (as I’m sure the school is doing).

    And yeah, there is always a chance that IU’s culture, reputation, or results could get worse or stay the same with a coaching change, and then we’ll be back here with the same discussion about a different dude. I’m just saying we as fans should consider all this before we’re just blindly clamoring for CTC’s firing because the team right now isn’t very good.

  • vicbert caladipo

    I’m plenty OK with having all these upsets continue thru Thursday. Tonight PS beats Mary, Ill beats NW(on the road), and UM is winning by 26 early 2nd half over MSU.! Why not IU over Peeyoo?

  • JethroTroll

    Aww, somebody cant handle getting called out. And despite your lame attempt at spin, you most definitely contradicted yourself. But way to be both condescending and smug in your response. Well done.

    P.S. I don’t think I’ve one comment on here about the relative strength of the B1G. But hey, if you cant make a rational point, you have to come up with something, right?

  • Larry Brown

    GO YOGI !!!

  • Missing Moye

    Okay, I may have misunderstood a bit. The blind “Fire Crean” crowd gets on everyone’s nerves equally, even those of us hoping for a coaching change. I agree fully with everything you said, and considering the above, still feel it’s time for a change assuming administration exercises good timing and due diligence in finding the right replacement (and for the record, I would be perfectly fine with an interim coach next year in CTC’s stead if it comes to that).

  • vicbert caladipo

    Absolutely Troll.

  • Larry Brown

    I believe that Crean’s fast-paced, offense-oriented system requires strong senior leadership. Otherwise, it just lends itself too easily to sloppiness like we’ve seen this year and in most previous years. It works but only if there’s at least several experienced, mature players leading the way. When there’s not ….. it gets ugly.
    It’s a shame IU cannot play a more fundamental-style game anymore consistent with its history; Butler is the new IU.

  • Larry Brown

    he wasn’t given significant minutes to prove he’s erratic, though. He shined vs Kansas and I bet never saw that many mins again. But perhaps in practice he’s erratic so that would justify the decision not to play him.

  • Missing Moye

    I was thinking about the turnover issues that have plagued CTC’s teams and I was reminded of an article Alex did back in September with Zak Boisvert. It was discussing the innovative Crean offense and how large his playbook is, and how they operate with concepts instead of sets sometimes. Justin Albers also chimed in on a comment that the complexity of the offense is a reason that certain players (he cited HMP) didn’t work out but it was too complicated for him to learn.

    In addition to playing fast (which we may or may not do this season), I have to think that this is a major culprit to the recurring turnover theme. Too many kids out there thinking instead of playing and it leads to mistakes.

    Knowing all of this, it just burns me up every time CTC or one of the players is asked about the turnovers, because inevitably the reply is “We just need to make the simple play.” In CTC’s offense, I wonder how simple the simple play is?

    Justin also elaborated or the innovative defense and doing things that other teams don’t do… If you missed the article and the ensuing discussion, it’s worth checking out. You can search on ITH for “offensive sets” and find it pretty easily.

  • I was referring specifically to the time he’s been playing — to me, he’s been erratic.

  • asdasdf

  • Zach

    It’s bad enough that IU is bad, but the B1G is so bad this year it saddens me. It’s obviously matchup dependent, but I don’t think any B1G teams will make it past the first weekend in the dance.

  • I have profited 104000 dollars in last 12 months by freelancing online a­n­d I did it by w­o­r­k­i­n­g part time f­­o­­r few hours /day. I followed an earning model I found on-line and I am so amazed that i was able to make such great money. It’s really beginner friendly a­n­d I’m just so grateful that i found it. This is what i did… STATICTAB.COM/6mairvf

  • kennygeorge

    and they just lost to Ill. last night.

  • IndianaHoops

    What a Purdue thing to say…..

    Yes, let’s embrace mediocrity because some of our fan base is happy with the current state of the program.

    IU has the highest recruiting budget in the nation and has the 9th highest paid coach in the nation. If this as good as it’s gonna get, let’s give that money to the football program.

    Why did we fire Davis again?

  • IndianaHoops

    Everything is fine….

    Better?

  • Justin Beard

    It would kinda make sense that “Cujo” chases his tail 🙂 all jokes aside, I still think he will be a great scorer in the future.

  • pcantidote

    and my eyes tell me that the successful coaches are not running complex stuff. They are doing a few things excellent rather than a million things ok.

  • pcantidote

    Their remaining schedule is pretty brutal too.

  • pcantidote

    That would be hilarious to play them again. My prediction is that we win on a last second half court shot.

  • JethroTroll

    I’m not ’embracing’ anything. Just said most of us realistically know the state of the program.
    I’m starting to wonder if you’re even capable of rational thought.

  • JethroTroll

    I don’t know. You tell me. You seem to be in desperate need of medication.

  • Travis

    He did have his warm-ups on during the Wisconsin game. I don’t know if he actually warmed up, but recent history has shown that is a good step forward. Although, I do believe CH was wearing his a few games ago.

  • HoosierOne

    Priller and Gellon have lower turnovers per game than ZM. ZM has the worst shooting percentage on the team and averages 1 point per game. At some point you have to establish your starting line up with match up changes, resting guys, or swapping guys who are having an off night. We have entire line changes like we’re playing hockey when the game is tight or we’re going on a good run.

  • IdahoHoosier

    I struggle with what “long term” potential Ulis has that Yogi doesn’t. 2 years age difference, not a big deal. Yogi is more experience and accomplished. Stats are similar. Yogi is actually taller and stronger.

  • not_fooled

    Def need to finish 10-8 with MSU finishing 9-9. Can accomplish that by winning three in a row against Mich, Minn, Iowa, and the final game vs OSU, plus one other game either vs PU or NW. Most likely we’ll be 9-9 with MSU at 10-8, which puts us right on the bubble. With our poor performance in the B1G tourny not feeling too good bout it.

  • IndianaHoops

    What is the “realistic state of the program”? Let me guess….it’s not the 1980s anymore and we should all cross our fingers and hope for another sweet 16?

    Let’s start with the conference rank. Where would you rate IU in the last 6 years? 2nd? 3rd? 5th?

    Now, where does IU rank in the state during those same 6 years? 1st? 2nd? 3rd?

    Nah….everything is perfect….IU is still a top team in the B10 and in the state of Indiana without question.

    So lay some of that “rational thought” on me as we watch Notre Dame, Butler, and Purdue pass IU by and hope we don’t play Ft Wayne again.

  • IndianaHoops

    And you are in desperate need of some self worth….

    Nah, IU should be with Illinois State and the last 4 in….you are right.

  • calbert40 – AC000000

    Maybe, but it is hard to argue with Crean’s record on the offensive side of the ball. The complex nature of the sets may contribute to the TO issue, but even within that framework, Crean’s AdjO is always towards the top of the class nationally. Also, I’d argue that the offense Crean runs is not as complicated as Motion is. My HS coach had us run Motion (I was a PG), and that is a difficult offense to run effectively too.

  • IndianaHoops

    Wrong.

    Coach K was in the national title game in year 6 at Duke.

    Was in NCAA at year 4 of rebuild and never looked back.

  • Piker

    Not sure what you mean. I was talking years not years at Duke. So it was Florida vs UCLA 2006.

  • Piker

    It’s a close call and valid arguments on both sides. I still think CTC can make it work. I like the kids he brings in a we have contenders for the last few years. I will not forget last year even if it was not a NCAA championship year we won the Big and beat UK. Lots of injuries this year and young guys on the floor so I will hope for a good finish NCAA bid and who knows. Either way I would like to see the coaching staff back next year.

  • Missing Moye

    Calbert, I can agree with that too. What we don’t know is whether or not those offensive numbers would come down if we ran something a little less complicated. Do we get fewer open looks but more of them because the ball is turned over less? You would think more opportunities would equal a better overall efficiency, but obviously that isn’t true if you’re taking substantially more challenged shots.

    I wasn’t necessarily meaning this as a critique of CTC, but rather a possible explanation for the turnover problem that never improves. The only thing I’m critical of is the tired line about making the simple play. Just be honest and tell the media that we run a more complicated system than most teams which means we’re a little more susceptible to mistakes. I think most people would be good with that given the offensive efficiency numbers that we post each year.

  • vicbert caladipo

    “You’re not capable of a rational thought” Where have I heard that before???? Oh yeah…you said the EXACT same thing to me. I’m pleased to know I’m not the only one you are a jerk to.

  • vicbert caladipo

    This TROLL said the exact same thing to me. I believe the guy started weeks ago calling Forever IU a name, then he went to Oleman, then to me, now to you. I’d love to see the TROLL get bounced.

  • vicbert caladipo

    As long as it’s a win

  • IndianaHoops

    No, just posted here the last 2 days and this will be my last…. well…. unless you answer any of my questions.

    Keep up the fight gentlemen….it will be over soon.

    🙂

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  • bandyindy

    A complicated offense? All I see is a three man weave around the 3 point line, and the one caught with the ball at the 25 second mark needing to make a play with a desperate heave or some one on one move – where is the complication? There is no true movement in and out feeding the post, no baseline cuts, too many guys standing around – and the bottom line is if you score 85 points but give up 90 at the other end of the court you still lose the game.

  • calbert40 – AC000000

    I am not the one who called it complex. Read Moye’s original post. It was Alex, Zak Boisvert and Justin Albers.

    Regardless…you can’t be any more incorrect about your assumptions of the offensive system we run. Going back to our first competitive season (2011-2012) our national ranking in AdjO is: 4, 2, 124 (that’s the Vonleh year), 8, 6, 19 (this year).

    We don’t struggle offensively. We excel offensively. Defense, well…that’s another story.

  • calbert40 – AC000000

    I didn’t take it as a critique. i actually agree with you. I think if we would slow it down just a pinch and value the ball more, our efficiency numbers would increase. Still, while the TOs are bothersome, and they aren’t helping us win game, I still don’t believe that is the reason we are struggling lately. It all falls back to defense.

  • JethroTroll

    @ IndianaHoops – Glad to see your leaving, since all you’ve done is make wild assumptions about my response. Nowhere have I said everything is perfect, nor am I happy with the state of the program, or whatever else you made up. Apparently, you were just looking for an opportunity to rant, regardless of how relevant it is.
    P.S. Having vicbert agree with you is not something to be proud of.

  • JethroTroll

    I get it, you’re offended and now feel the need to stalk me on these boards. For the record, I haven’t called anybody names on this board. Apparently, making things up is one of your specialties. Look, if you’re going to call me out, can you at least be informed about it?
    Unlike you, I prefer to ignore the ones on this board I don’t like, which Im going to do with you unless you keep stalking me. Trust me, you provide more than enough ammunition on this board for me to embarrass you. So, I suggest you move along. This isn’t a fight you’re equipped to win.

  • bandyindy

    Your a stats guy, I get that – however I look at the game and see what I see in regard to turnovers and offensive efficiency along with player movement, and what I’m seeing isn’t on the same page with your stats. In a recent game we threw away the ball or had turnovers on 6 or 7 offensive possessions in a row without getting off a shot. Do your stats also reflect TO’s in regard to offensive efficiency? Basically what it comes down to are wins, are we winning with the offense we run, does our defense suffer in some way in tandem with our offensive sets? Are we ever going to get to the next level in terms of a serious player in the national championship picture under Tom Crean? I have major doubts!

  • calbert40 – AC000000

    I am a stats head. Guilty! 🙂 But I agree that it is important to know what the statistic being cited is actually measuring. Otherwise, its bearing on the discussion is limited.

    AdjO is a measurement of how many points a team would score in 100 possessions. Basically, if you read what Alex writes about our PPP (points per possession), multiply that by 100. The reason so many people like to cite this stat is that it is inclusive of TOs, points scored from the FT line as well as FGM. Our current AdjO is 118.4, which is 19th best in the country.

    Obviously, we don’t have 100 possessions in the normal game (the PSU 3 OT game notwithstanding). So, our pace of play is an important factor as well. Take our PPP and our pace, and you get an idea of the range of points we would typically score.

    What Moye and I were discussing was whether or not slowing our pace a little, in order to lower our TO percentage, would make our offense better in reality or just on paper. We would be more efficient, I’m certain; however, would the dip in the number of possessions cost us more than what we’d gain from the fewer TOs? I don’t know. It seems very counterintuitive to suggest lowering our TO percentage would NOT help, but it might not. The best thing for us to do would be to continue playing at our pace, but find a way to shave 2-4 TOs off every game. That would certainly be the best option.

  • vicbert caladipo

    Hi TROLL!! Not offended at all. I like playing with you. You remind me of my little sister, pouty and weak, but I still love you. Everyone needs a little whiney TROLL doll to play with. Have a TROLLISH day troll!!

  • vicbert caladipo

    AWW poor baby. TROLL got the sniffles. Great to see you’re so well liked here TROLL.