Tourney Watch: Indiana in danger of missing tournament

  • 01/31/2017 8:44 am in

A week after the 2017 debut of “Tourney Watch,” Indiana’s chances to make the NCAA tournament have taken a substantial hit.

This week’s edition of Tourney Watch, which will be a weekly feature up until Selection Sunday on March 12, takes a look at what went wrong last week for the Hoosiers, IU’s current nitty gritty profile, bracket projections and much more.

Overview

At 14-8, Indiana’s record is beginning to take on quite a few blemishes. Last week’s blowout loss at Michigan combined with a 13-point loss at Northwestern ended IU’s positive momentum it had built in a 3-game winning streak.

The one bit of good news is that Indiana still has plenty of games to play that would provide a significant resume boost if they can stack some wins. But with injuries, turnovers and a suspect defense, it looks like a bumpy road lies ahead.

Nitty Gritty Profile

· Record: 14-8 (4-5 Big Ten)
· RPI: 82 (73 last week)
· SOS: 63 (via CBS) (57 last week)
· Home Record: 12-2
· Away Record: 1-4
· Neutral Court Record: 1-2
· vs. RPI Top 50: 4-5 (via ESPN)
· vs. RPI Top 51-100: 1-2 (via ESPN)

Bracket projections

· ESPN Bracketology (Joe Lunardi): 9 seed in West Region vs. USC in Salt Lake City (updated Jan. 30)
· CBS Sports (Jerry Palm): 11 seed in Midwest Region vs. Duke in Sacramento (updated Jan. 30)
· Assembly Call (Andy Bottoms): 10 seed in West Region vs. Virginia Tech in Salt Lake City (updated Jan. 31)
· Crashing the Dance: Not in the field (No. 34 overall seed last week)
· Bracket Matrix: Third No. 9 seed

Indiana is still in the tournament in many projections, but some are beginning to drop the Hoosiers from the field. The Crashing the Dance model no longer includes Indiana. Several new brackets published Monday on Bracket Matrix have also removed the Hoosiers.

Final record projections

A week ago, KenPom.com projected the Hoosiers to finish 20-11 overall and 10-8 in the conference. As of Tuesday morning, the projection is now 18-13 and 8-10. RPIForecast.com has the four most likely final regular season records for IU as: 19-12 (27.8%), 18-13 (24%), 20-11 (20.6%) and 17-14 (13.1%).

A look at the conference as a whole

The Big Ten is currently an eight bid league with Wisconsin, Maryland, Purdue, Minnesota, Northwestern, Michigan State, Michigan and Indiana in the Bracket Matrix field.

Crashing the Dance lists Illinois, Nebraska, Ohio State and Penn State as teams who could receive consideration, but none of those teams are serious threats to make the tournament at this time.

As the season moves along, we’ll dig more into each team’s projections, but Bracket Matrix (updated Jan. 30) currently has Wisconsin as a No. 4 seed, Maryland as a No. 5 seed, Purdue as No. 6 seed, Northwestern as a No. 7 seed, Minnesota as No. 8 seed, Michigan State as No. 10 seed and Michigan as a No. 11 seed.

2017 Tournament Sites 

· First Four: Dayton
· First, second rounds: Buffalo, Greenville, Indianapolis, Milwaukee, Orlando, Salt Lake City, Sacramento, Tulsa
· Regional: Kansas City, Memphis, New York, San Jose
· Final Four: Phoenix

Filed to:

  • ben

    All I can say is what a bunch of morons it’s time to get rid of the coach

  • Who, exactly, are the “bunch of morons” you’re referring to?

  • bball at nick’s

    That’s deep, Brother, very deep.

  • vicbert caladipo

    I’d say I’m one of them.although in reality I’m on the fence about CTC. I could pick a side easier if it weren’t for all the injuries.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Damn tough year Vicbert. So many emotions at all levels and sides.

  • SidelineSportsNetwork

    I picked my side after the 13-14 season. I was done at that point.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    BS!!!!!

  • SidelineSportsNetwork

    How is that BS?

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    We were never or ever expected to be good that season.

  • SidelineSportsNetwork

    Considering we started the season in the Top 30? With one of the best big men in the Big Ten? And one of the best PG’s in the nation? That season showed that Crean had no clue how to adjust to a roster. Absolutely wasted season.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Wrong again at the best big man in the Big Ten and one of the best point guards,,,,, pre season articles and expectations stated that.

  • SidelineSportsNetwork

    We had Yogi who was one of the best in the nation. Noah Vonleh was freshman of the year in the Big Ten and almost averaged a double double. We started out 28th in the AP and 24th in the coaches. Crean had no idea how to use that team. The HE built. He can’t adjust to a roster period and that showed it. That team had top 25 talent. This year’s had Top 15 and Crean couldn’t adjust to the roster properly.

  • vicbert caladipo

    Yes this season has me mad not so much the results but all the injuries. I take a positive out of it in that I don’t expect much anymore so when we lose it doesn’t surprise me. I’m not like a lot of the others I will always watch and cheer IU on whether CTC is the coach or Bozo the clown is the coach.. I just love IU basketball and this years group of kids are good kids. I think the only way I’d stop watching is if we started recruiting thugs like Grayson Allen or egomaniacs like Nigel Hayes. I watch a lot of basketball and it’s amazing how much thuggish behavior I see from other teams. Fights. Trash talking, coaches refusing to shake hands, one game suspensions for players being repeat thugs. This is one thing I like about Crean. He meets the parents and recruits good polite respectful kids. Sure I want a winner and CTC has struggled to give us that at times, but I look at the bigger picture.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Great to hear from you.

  • calbert40 – AC000000

    I don’t know that there is a “right” answer. I just used those four teams to show how close they are. When we look at teams’ profiles without their names, we see that our profile isn’t so bad in comparison.

    All are B1G teams. Team A – MSU, Team B – IU, Team C – UM, Team D – Minny.

    In that grouping of teams, I think we have the best profile (outside of the lousy RPI). We have the best signature win. We have won more games against the Top 50 than the others too. Also, the committee (with their unbiased eyes) will look at IU’s current struggles for what they are…going 1-2 against 3 potential/probable NCAA teams immediately after losing two of their best players to injury. We have to win some games in February and March, but I think we are in better standing than many posters would like to admit.

  • vicbert caladipo

    They were very similar and I’d say all 4 need to win a bunch more games. There’s a good chance none of the 4 make it. As far as we are concerned we need to finish our last 9….5-4 or better and that is a tall task with all the road games including 2 against very good teams and our injury situation. James has already been ruled out tomorrow. We have a very tough road ahead.

  • SidelineSportsNetwork

    RPI is pointless to look at. The last few years it has been off because the quality of basketball has gone down.

  • SidelineSportsNetwork

    In 1965 they may have meant something. The game now is making money and winning. Indiana makes money.. but doesn’t win. And eventually without winning, that money will dry up. Indiana will have less fans from this current generation because they aren’t winning. Why be a fan of Indiana now when you’re a kid when there teams like Kentucky, Duke, Arizona or Kansas to be excited about?

  • I’m nothing if not deep.

  • TomJameson

    In the 2013-14 season they declined a CIB invitation (didn’t get the NIT bid). I know it’s a different level entirely, but the excuse was that “It’s Indiana”. Personally, I think they would go to the NIT if that was all available. But then again, who knows?

  • TomJameson

    Man, I don’t think that’s right. But I’ll do my own research and get back to you.

  • TomJameson

    There are lots of teams with injuries, but it sure does seem like IU gets way more than their share. I certainly don’t have any answers, hell, I don’t even have all the questions! lol

  • pcantidote

    He was actually sitting in front of a mirror along with his friends and family when he was typing that. The part about the coach was a separate thought.

  • pcantidote

    So one bad season and you abandon ship. How foolish.

  • JethroTroll

    And I just proved you and C.M. Newton wrong because LSU TURNED DOWN an NIT invite just a few years ago. That’s a FACT.
    Im sure I can easily find more examples, but one should suffice in this case. I rest my case.

  • SidelineSportsNetwork

    One bad season? Just one? After how many under Crean?

  • JethroTroll

    By the way, that’s an SEC rule, NOT a national rule or NIT rule or NCAA rule. Yes, LSU is in the SEC, but they definitely turned down an invite just a few years ago. Im sure they probably paid a fine.

  • pcantidote

    2013-14 was the first truly bad season, and apparently that is when you threw in the towel. If you want to talk about 2008-2011, well then, you are just too intellectually dishonest to even have a debate with.

  • SidelineSportsNetwork

    2009-2010 was a failure. What was supposed to be a better year than 08-09… ended up worse. Plus the ending of 12-13. Somehow not thinking Syracuse would play zone the whole game. Because that was some type of miracle.

  • pcantidote

    “2009-2010 was a failure.” LOL. I figured out your problem. It’s called unreasonable expectations.

  • SidelineSportsNetwork

    Unreasonable expectations… like the vast majority of Indiana fans have every year?

  • Bill Graham

    So obviously either way this season is a disappointment. Even if we make the tournament. We won’t last long without a point guard. So what do we chalk this season up to?

    Do we chalk it up to CTC’s inability to coach?
    Do we chalk it up to his inability to replace Yogi?
    Do we chalk it up to injuries?
    Do we chalk it up to being over-rated?
    Do we chalk it up to disappointing seasons from guys we expected to be big time?
    Do we chalk it up to the lack of leadership and the Collin Hartman injury?

    Perhaps its a combination of all of these factors…but either way its frustrating to have such athleticism like O.G. and Juwan and not be able to play defense. Its frustrating to have such a good pure scorer like Blackmon and not be able to close games. Its frustrating to have 5 rotation guards and no point guard. And its frustrating to have two guys that are over 6-10 and not win games via the paint.

    So whats the root cause of our down-slide?

  • Koko

    Brian Kelly on ND’s 4-8 season……”There are no bad football teams….There’s just poorly led football teams….I led this team poorly”.
    I think IU’s basketball team is a good well talented team that should be good enough to weather the loss’s of CW & OG. IU basketball has been poorly led.

  • Aha! Makes sense…

  • IdahoHoosier

    Good example of a coach taking responsibility for his team. Honorable thing to do and definitely true to an extent. But you can’t take player talent, drive, leadership, etc. out of the equation entirely. The coach doesn’t go out and execute the plays, block shots, and hit free-throws. Some of it is up to the players. Not taking away responsibility from CTC, but the floor leadership looks like it is lacking this year also (come back Yogi and NZ!).

  • Koko

    Thanks for your comment.

  • Bill Graham

    Even Max is a guy that comes to mind. Max did what it took to win. If it was rebounding thats what he did. If it was locking down the other teams best big he did it. If we needed buckets he get 15. We don’t have guys that are willing to just play a role to help the team win….actually…we do… but he hasn’t seen the floor all season.

  • Yes and no. The tournament is where all the magic happens. So it’s critical to at least get in and have a shot. I also enjoy the whole thing infinitely more while IU is in it and especially when winning. March isn’t the same, otherwise.