Tourney Watch: Hoosiers still playing for seeding in regular season’s final week

  • 03/01/2016 5:03 pm in

We’re back for our sixth installment of “Tourney Watch” as Indiana gets set for a Tuesday primetime tilt against Iowa in Iowa City before closing out the regular season at home on Sunday against Maryland.

In our weekly feature that will continue up until Selection Sunday on March 13, we take a look at IU’s current nitty gritty profile, updated bracket projections and much more.

Overview

At 23-6, Indiana played just once last week and it was a win that didn’t move the needle too much in terms of NCAA tournament seeding. The Hoosiers crushed Illinois 74-47 in Champaign. This week, IU has two chances at wins that could provide a major RPI boost with Iowa and Maryland on the slate.

Nitty Gritty Profile

· Record: 23-6 (12-3 Big Ten)
· RPI: 27
· SOS: 92 (via CBS)
· Home Record: 16-0
· Away Record: 5-4
· Neutral Court Record: 2-2
· vs. RPI Top 50: 4-3 (via Crashing the Dance)
· vs. RPI Top 51-100: 4-1 (via Crashing the Dance)

Indiana rose two spots in the RPI since our last update, but still has just four top 50 RPI wins which is probably holding them back somewhat right now for seeding purposes.

Current Projections

· Assembly Call (Andy Bottoms): 5 seed in South Region vs. San Diego State in Spokane (Updated 3/1)
· ESPN Bracketology (Joe Lunardi): 5 seed in East Region vs. Arkansas-Little Rock in Denver (Updated 2/29)
· CBS Sports (Jerry Palm): 5 seed in West Region vs. Arkansas-Little Rock in Oklahoma City (Updated 2/29)
· Crashing the Dance: No. 19 overall seed
· Bracket Matrix: Last No. 5 seed

Indiana rose two spots in the last week in the Crashing the Dance seeding list and moved up three spots in the Bracket Matrix from the third No. 6 seed to the final No. 5 seed. At least a split this week would probably guarantee Indiana no lower than a five seed.

Final record projections

The Hoosiers remain projected to finish 24-7 and 14-4 by KenPom, which would give the Hoosiers an outright Big Ten regular season title. RPIForecast.com gives the Hoosiers a 53.3% chance to finish 24-7, a 28.5% chance to finish 25-6 and an 18.6% chance to end up 23-8. In its weekly conference roundup, The Only Colors gives Indiana a 77% chance to earn an outright Big Ten title.

Around the Big Ten

Locks

· Maryland (23-6, RPI 10): Maryland lost at Purdue last week, but remains the highest ranked Big Ten team in the RPI. The Terps, however, have lost three of their last four and still have a road trip to Indiana looming.
· Michigan State (24-5, RPI 14): If Michigan State wins out in the regular season, which seems a near certainty, and then wins the Big Ten tournament, the Spartans will be in the conversation for a No. 1 seed.
· Purdue (22-7, RPI 18): The Boilermakers got a huge win last weekend at home over Maryland, which probably put them in good shape for a five seed or higher if they can beat Nebraska and Wisconsin this week.
· Iowa (20-8, RPI 21): The Hawkeyes were being discussed as a potential No. 1 seed in early February, but losses in four of their last five games has caused a bit of a free fall in several projections. There’s no doubt that Iowa needs a win over Indiana this week to right the ship before traveling to Michigan to close out the regular season.
· Wisconsin (19-10, RPI 33): The Badgers remain one of the Big Ten’s hottest teams and did Indiana a huge favor last week by winning at Iowa. The Badgers should have no problem with Minnesota this week and a game on Sunday at Purdue gives them another shot at improving their resume.

Bubble In

· Michigan (20-10, RPI 59): Michigan announced that it will be without Caris LeVert for the rest of the season and is right on the fringe in most projections. That keeps the Wolverines in the “bubble in” category this week, but a win against Iowa on Saturday at home is basically a must at this point.

Bubble Out

· Ohio State (19-10, RPI 74): The Buckeyes, who are without Jae’Sean Tate, lost to Michigan State last week and then beat Iowa for their 11th conference win. However, the unbalanced schedule is going to really hurt this group as they are evaluated by the tournament selection committee. Ohio State could get in with a win at Michigan State this week and a win in the Big Ten tournament, but that’s a tough ask given how well the Spartans are playing right now.

2016 Tournament Sites 

· First Four: Dayton
· First, second rounds: Brooklyn, Denver, Des Moines, Oklahoma City, Providence, Raleigh, Spokane, St. Louis
· Regional: Anaheim, Chicago, Louisville, Philadelphia
· Final Four: Houston

Filed to:

  • TomJameson

    Not to nit-pick, but “Tuesday” … not “Thursday Primetime tilt …”

  • Ole Man

    RPI is such a joke. It has PUke, Iowa, and Mary ahead of IU.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Amen to that. Enjoy the game tonight OM’.

  • Fixed.

  • Bill Graham

    Maryland I can understand b/c we haven’t played them yet….but we have better records than PUke and Iowa…I wonder if our Maui fiasco is still being held against us..

  • JohnIU

    Rob Johnson playing tonight?

  • Bill Graham

    Not to get too nit picky…but the trouble with being a 5 (if we end up being that) is 5’s and 4’s have to get by the #1’s to get into the elite 8. Whereas, 3’s and 6’s have to slip by the 2’s. The other issue is (at least right now) there are some slick teams that are lower seeds. For example, Lunardi has Kris Dunn and Providence as a 9 (and we all know Dunn can beat anyone single handedly on any given night). Heck Temple is a 12 seed and they beat SMU, UCONN x 2, and CINN x 2 (they are super inconsistent though), South Carolina is a projected 9 (no explanation needed about them) Heck Butler is an 11 and we all saw what Dunham and the boys are capable of against Purdon’t. I’m not going to get too ahead of myself with this seeding but man…

    Ideally, I’d like to play a team who’s primary scorer is either a small guard or a big guy. We tend to get chewed up by players in that 6-5 to 6-8 range that can score (ex Taylor, Valentine, Hayes, Ingram).

  • Bill Graham

    Browsed the news and there are no recent reports. He’s still listed as questionable. I would assume he sits again if he’s still not 100% (especially considering we can still clinch with a home win against Mary and the BIG tourney right around the corner).

  • BL

    13-3 in BIG?

  • Ms hoosier

    I think if IU wins tonite on the road it will change. It will prove to all the so called experts that IU is a ligit team that can win in a tough envirement against a good team.

  • Ms hoosier

    What really makes me mad is that CTC and they Hoosiers don’t get the credit the deserve for what they have done without JBJ and now RJ. If this was Izzo and MSU or Calipari and UK. All the so called experts would be singing their praises and talking about what a great job they have done!!

  • cooper

    Going to be a very tough game tonight. If IU stays in it til the 2nd half I think they can pull it out. Expect Iowa to come out with their hair on fire to try to put the game away early.

  • pcantidote

    Assuming we win outright, when was the last time the outright winner of a major conference ended up with 5 seed or worse? I suppose if we win at least one game this week we would at least move up to a 4 though?

  • HuntinHoosier86

    Saw that too.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Never a #5. That was my point exclusively in the previous article and comments.

  • Sarasota Hoosier

    We can’t win it in first half, let’s not lose it.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Don’t leave for the Oyster Bar yet!

  • Sarasota Hoosier

    Senior leadership

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    This has been ref hose job.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Game Over!!!! IU 2016 Big Ten Champions! !!!

  • TomJameson

    This is not the same team that played in Maui. Anybody can see that. But those games probably are still being held against us. Maybe when “they” consider that we just beat Iowa at their house, it will change some perceptions.

  • IU Hoosiers # 34, 1979-83

    Tommy IU WON BABY!!!!!!!

  • TomJameson

    6 to 15 in the first half. Wow, how can that be anywhere close to an honestly called game?

  • TomJameson

    I know, that was an awesome effort by a team that was playing in a VERY hostile environment! I am soooo proud of that team, and that includes a double bonus for the coach.

  • Ole Man

    Amen to that thought!