We’re back for our second installment of “Tourney Watch” as Indiana begins to navigate the back half of its Big Ten schedule.
In our weekly feature that will continue up until Selection Sunday on March 13, we take a look at IU’s current nitty gritty profile, updated bracket projections and much more.
At 19-4, Indiana is 2-1 since our last update with an overtime road loss at Wisconsin, a home win over Minnesota and a road win at Michigan. Five of IU’s eight remaining Big Ten games are against Iowa (2), Michigan State, Purdue and Maryland, so there are plenty of chances to pick up wins to add to the resume.
Nitty Gritty Profile
· Record: 19-4 (9-1 Big Ten)
· RPI: 40
· SOS: 135 (via CBS)
· Home Record: 13-0
· Away Record: 4-2
· Neutral Court Record: 2-2
· vs. RPI Top 50: 2-1 (via Crashing the Dance)
· vs. RPI Top 51-100: 4-2 (via Crashing the Dance)
· Assembly Call (Andy Bottoms): 8 seed in Midwest Region vs. South Carolina in St. Louis (Updated 2/2)
· ESPN Bracketology (Joe Lunardi): 6 seed in East Region vs. First Four winner in St. Louis (Updated 1/25)
· CBS Sports (Jerry Palm): 9 seed in South Region vs. St. Mary’s in Oklahoma City (Updated 2/1)
· Crashing the Dance: No. 25 overall seed
· Bracket Matrix: Second No. 7 seed
The consensus right now is that Indiana would be solidly in the field if it were selected today. The model on Crashing the Dance currently has the Hoosiers with the fifth best profile among Big Ten teams behind Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State and Purdue.
Final record projections
KenPom.com, which had the Hoosiers favored in nine of its first 10 Big Ten games, projects the Hoosiers to finish 24-7 overall and 14-4 in the conference. RPIForecast.com has the three most likely final regular season records for IU as: 24-7 (31.6%), 25-6 (25.3%) and 23-8 (20.9%). As of Tuesday afternoon, The Only Colors gave Indiana a 62.2% chance of a top four finish in the Big Ten.
A look at the conference as a whole
The Big Ten currently looks like a six-bid league with IU, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Michigan and Purdue all appearing to have a solid path to dance. Crashing the Dance’s model has Wisconsin, which has won four in a row, as one of the last at-large teams in the field.
As the season moves along, we’ll dig more into each team’s projections, but Bracket Matrix (updated Feb. 3) currently has Iowa as a No. 2, Michigan State and Maryland as No. 3 seeds, Purdue as a No. 4 and Michigan as a No. 7. Bracket Matrix lists Wisconsin as one of the “first four out.”
2016 Tournament Sites
· First Four: Dayton
· First, second rounds: Brooklyn, Denver, Des Moines, Oklahoma City, Providence, Raleigh, Spokane, St. Louis
· Regional: Anaheim, Chicago, Louisville, Philadelphia
· Final Four: Houston
Filed to: 2016 NCAA tournament