POTB 104: Big Ten team-by-team win predictions

  • 12/29/2015 7:32 am in

Podcast on the Brink is back for a new episode with host Jerod Morris of The Assembly Call. The show is currently available weekly. You can access a full archive of episodes here.

In this week’s edition of the show, Morris is joined by Inside the Hall editors Alex Bozich and Ryan Corazza and the trio issues their conference win predictions for each team.

In addition to the win predictions, the discussion also hits on Big Ten player of the year prediction and which teams are most likely to either surprise or disappoint in league play. (For reference, we’ve included the record predictions for each Big Ten team discussed in the show at the very bottom of this post.)

As always, feel free to drop the show a note at jerod@assemblycall.com.

Listen in the audio player below, download the episode, subscribe via iTunes, subscribe via Stitcher or subscribe to the RSS feed.

Alex:

Michigan State: 15-3
Purdue: 14-4
Maryland: 14-4
Iowa: 12-6
Indiana: 11-7
Michigan: 10-8
Ohio State: 9-9
Northwestern: 9-9
Wisconsin: 8-10
Illinois: 7-11
Nebraska: 6-12
Penn State: 5-13
Minnesota: 4-14
Rutgers: 2-16

Ryan:

Michigan State: 14-4
Purdue: 13-5
Maryland: 13-5
Iowa: 12-6
Indiana: 12-6
Michigan: 10-8
Ohio State: 10-8
Northwestern: 8-10
Wisconsin: 8-10
Illinois: 7-11
Nebraska: 7-11
Penn State: 6-12
Minnesota: 4-14
Rutgers: 2-16

Jerod:

Michigan State: 15-3
Maryland: 13-5
Purdue: 13-5
Iowa: 12-6
Wisconsin: 12-6
Indiana: 11-7
Ohio State: 10-8
Michigan: 9-9
Illinois: 8-10
Nebraska: 8-10
Northwestern: 5-13
Penn State: 5-13
Minnesota: 3-15
Rutgers: 2-16

Filed to:

  • Arch Puddington

    Interesting that all three predictions are for at least 11 wins. I get it that the B1G is down this year, and we have a very favorable schedule, so perhaps that is justified. If I were predicting simply on the basis of what we have seen on the court and the normal level of play in the B1G, I would predict a sub- .500 record for sure. Teams that play bad defense and struggle away from home are traditionally chewed up in conference play, but it may be that we have caught a break and won’t have to fight through quite the same briar patch we would in most other years.

    I’ll say this, though: I’d take 11 wins right now and walk away without a second thought. I’ll be in attendance at the game in East Lansing, so hopefully there is still reason for optimism by then!

  • pcantidote

    Looking at their schedule, what are the at least 10 losses you would predict to get to sub-.500?

    For me, it is hard to see more than 9 losses even with how bad they’ve looked. This is driven more by the strength of schedule than any perception that we are good. I would say 10-8 or 11-7 is about right.

  • Arch Puddington

    Sorry, not sure I was clear about what I was saying. My point was that in a “normal” year, I would not expect a team that plays like this one to finish above .500 in conference play. It’s generic thought based on many years of watching B1G basketball, not on this year in particular or the way our schedule works out.

    But given the realities of this year’s overall conference strength and the very favorable schedule we received, perhaps a winning record is possible. Twelve wins seems pretty optimistic to me, but I have not done a game by game analysis. I hope you and the ITH crew are right!

  • Koko

    I’d say the top three spots are wrapped up and the rest will be a free for all.
    The fourth and fifth spots will be a merry go round during the conference season.
    We will be in on that merry go round till the last seven games. Those games will define our B1G season. Will the team bypass CTC and rise to the occasion? Or will CTC’s coaching drive us down? I’m in too much of a mystery sandwich to make a prediction on our final B1G record this year. There are so many possibilities swirling around our team that confusion is the only word I can use at this point. Every win will be a victory if CTC continues on his quest to be “innovative” on defense. Sometimes it seems the team is playing two opponnets in one game.

  • IULore

    There are not 6 losses on the schedule here for IU 13-5

  • Ole Man

    At: Neb, MN, Mich, MSU, Iowa, Wisc.
    H: PUke, either MY/NW/Iowa
    That’s 8 real good possibilities.
    They’ll win one of those that I don’t forsee; but, as they do historically, lose one that I don’t forsee.
    Jerod and Alex at 11-7 are right on the money.
    I thinking 10-8.

  • IULore

    Wisc, Minn and Neb are all trash. Could it happen? Sure, and probably will, but we will also beat some good teams as well.

  • Breakfast at Bruce’s

    11-7 is optimistic.
    10-8 is realistic.
    8-10 is very possible.

  • PBzeer

    With the current starting lineup, 9-9.

  • Breakfast at Bruce’s

    Wisconsin is the #56 team on Ken Pomeroy. You can call them trash all you want, but it is going to be even more painful losing to trash. Nebraska only has to get lucky and take us to overtime like they did Miami. And you can add Penn St to the trash that can beat us.

  • vicbert caladipo

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. We can’t win on the road. We even have trouble on neutral sights(Maui and ALL big ten tourneys). On the road:
    3-4 wins optimistic
    2-3 wins probable
    0-1 not out of the realm of possibility.
    So we better win them all at home or will be on the bubble come March. And to add to that we seem to always have trouble at Northwestern when if you look at the red in the crowd we outnumber them. Don’t think for a second that Neb, Wis, Minn, PS, Ill crowds won’t bring it when we come there as well as their coaches.

  • Ms hoosier

    If we can’t beat Neb and Minn I can’t even say we will .500. Those teams are not good!!

  • vicbert caladipo

    I would love to see an ITH ranking of coaches. I really think coaching is going to decide the champion. In your upper tier you have Izzo, Painter, Matta, Beilien, and Turgeon with Izzo getting the nod. Mid tier there’s Collins, McCafferty, and maybe Miles, bottom tier Shady Jr., Groce, Skinner and the dude from P.S….I left out Gard and our very own Sir Thomas Crean. These 2 are the “X” factors and how they coach their team will determine their success. Feel free to post where you believe CTC belongs in the Big 10 hierarchy, but I’m going MSU champ and Peeyoo runner up. Peeyoo wins the BIG 10 tourney.

  • Guyton25

    Our schedule is soft, unlike recent years. Also, I think we’ve learned a lot from the non-con this season. Crean and the team.

    Optimistic – 13-5
    Realistic – 12-6
    Pessimistic – 11-7

  • RDD#76

    I like Penn State coach he does a lot with minimal talent and his kids play tough hard nose basketball

  • cooper

    Izzo is in a tier by himself. The rest of the coaches are pretty similar and average. No one else has done anything except Matta (sort of) who has apparently forgot how to recruit

  • Ole Man

    Matta, sort of? LOL! He’s 24-13 in the NCAAs and made it to two FF.
    Beilien isn’t chopped liver at coaching.

  • cooper

    Big difference between getting there and winning. To be elite you have to have one it once.

  • Ole Man

    Never said he was elite. Just pointing out that he is better than he was given credit for.

  • inadvertentelbows_stillhurt

    This team will struggle to get stops on the road

  • Jeremy

    I will predict 9-9 in conference and 19-12 overall. I think we are in store for some bad road losses and a crash or two at home. Hopefully, the ensuing low NCAA bid will not be enough to save TC job.