The Battle for Indianapolis: A look at Indiana and Louisville

  • 03/16/2013 6:25 pm in

031612jeUpdate (10:55 p.m.): Despite trailing by double figures in the second half, Louisville rallied to beat Syracuse and claim the Big East tournament championship. The Cardinals have now won 10 consecutive games.

Suddenly, Selection Sunday becomes very interesting for Indiana because, as mentioned below, Louisville could threaten the Hoosiers for the top seed in the Midwest region. Both teams’ resumes are updated below, and they are certainly very close.

Even with Louisville’s win, CBS bracketologist Jerry Palm still had Indiana has the top overall seed in the tournament, as did CBS’ Seth Davis. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi moved Louisville to the top overall seed.

CHICAGO — Indiana isn’t on the bubble. That’s the good news for Hoosier fans. But Indiana’s 68-56 loss to Wisconsin in Saturday’s Big Ten Tournament semifinal might impact what region the Hoosiers end up in when the bracket is revealed Sunday night at 6 p.m. on CBS.

Had the Hoosiers beaten the Badgers, they likely would have locked up the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament, and more importantly, the coveted Indianapolis Midwest regional. But after losing a 12th straight game to Bo Ryan and the Badgers, the Hoosiers could get shipped elsewhere.

While Indiana (27-6) will still end up with a No. 1 seed, the Hoosiers could be placed in the East region (Washington D.C.) or South region (Dallas), depending on what happens in other games around the country.

ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi still had Indiana in the Midwest region as of Saturday afternoon, but he has Gonzaga as the top overall seed and Louisville as the second 1-seed. If Louisville beats Syracuse in tonight’s Big East championship game, Lunardi will give the Cardinals the top overall seed.

At this point, Louisville is the only team that could knock Indiana out of the Midwest, so let’s compare the two teams’ resumes.

Indiana

· Record: 27-6 (14-4 Big Ten)
· RPI: 5
· SOS: 11
· Home Record: 17-2
· Away Record: 7-2
· Neutral Court Record: 3-2
· vs. RPI Top 1-25: 7-2
· vs. RPI Top 26-50: 2-4
· vs. RPI Top 51-100: 3-0

Louisville

· Record: 29-5 (14-4 Big East)
· RPI: 3
· SOS: 8
· Home Record: 15-1
· Away Record: 8-3
· Neutral Court Record: 6-1
· vs. RPI Top 1-25: 4-3
· vs. RPI Top 26-50: 6-1
· vs. RPI Top 51-100: 5-1

The NCAA selection committee used to take into account how well teams were playing entering the tournament by considering their record over the the last 10 games. While they no longer do so, it’s hard to ignore the eye test and how teams have looked lately.

The Hoosiers enter Selection Sunday with a 3-3 record in their last six games, and Louisville has won nine games in a row and 12 of 13 entering tonight. If the Cardinals win tonight, it will be extremely close as to which team is seeded higher Sunday night.

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  • Weaz

    What a letdown! Shirts, rap songs, hype and yes Im proud of this team and the outright title…been 20 yrs. Great Job… but I see this starting to look like a disappointing ending to this season…. anyone want to buy my LUCAS OIL TICKETS? So ticked right now….

  • Snookafly

    You know I’m a Crean fan, but I agree with you here. 15-3 lifetime tells me that for whatever reason Ryan owns him.

  • marcusgresham

    You’ll be fine. Given the pod system, IU will still be in Dayton because Louisville would be sent to Lexington.

  • Southern55Hoosier

    I am heartbroken about this game, and the general end of season play. I’m sorry, but when players are doing well, PLEASE keep them in there. Let’s get a good size lead, and THEN sub. The last killer game was when we went to Michigan State. I loved the intensity of most of the Illinois game yesterday, but we didn’t play with heart today.

    Please tell me that VO is still hurt. What happened to all those drives to the bucket? Surely he must still be recovering from the ankle twist. And poor Jordan. I can understand a game here and there, but doesn’t that make three for him not doing well? I had big hopes for them at the beginning, but I just watched Louisville come back and finish up Syracuse like true #1 teams should be playing now. What’s up with our Hoosiers right now? They play good one game, then they relax. That’s not going to cut it in the big dance.

  • rpasky

    Remy played well, but VO and Cody were not shooting well and were is Jordy? What wrong with Derek? Crean could have put Jurkin in to just bang the crap out of those Wis. Boy’s. Hollowell was not on his game and he was coming on so well. They seem to be a team right now with an identity crisis. Maybe to much talkn and not enough worken. Someone needs to step up and be the leader and put there heart into it.

  • inadvertentelbows_stillhurt

    When IU forced into half court game ,not enough one on one toughness to score the ball….P.S. tourney teams will keep exploiting IU when Jordy is on the floor..can’t defend…will not block out…and ends most games with 2 fouls or less while the people he guards get double figures …if not hitting jumpers is not an asset on the floor. No real leadership and when he gets bumped and misses a shot he still hangs his head like a freshman…

  • marcusgresham

    The first two rounds don’t have anything to do with regions. The pod system was created to give the higher seeds preferential placement. Only the sweet 16 and elite 8 games are region-specific. Theoretically, with the pod system, Indiana and Louisville could each get #1 seeds and both play in Lexington (or Dayton, or Seymour High School if there were games there.)

  • Jeffrey

    This Wisconsin style of play – is not enjoyable I agree. However, he wins. Remember I think his name was Pete Carill at Princeton. He used most of the shot clock and won a lot of games that way. I can’t for the life of me understand – and yes I’m saying this to Tom Crean – what the heck is so hard about learning how to play defense and play a half court game even though it is boring. Didn’t Purdue beat them this year? I mean come on already. Valid points by everybody. Seeding doesn’t matter that much to me because after the 1st couple of games it’s a war no matter what region you’re in. I do think they let down. Louisville in my opinion is the best team in the nation right now as far as going into the tournament. They’re running like a well oiled engine. Hitting on all cylinders.

  • Jeffrey

    You guys also might understand this – Indiana has won 27 games and loss 6 – that is a total of 32 games. When Indiana won the 76 championship they had 32-0 and that included the tournament. Fatigue could be a factor. So let’s just say for example that we do play four to six games more – look at the total number of games that would be played. 39 games in a year. That’s a lot. Not making excuses. I think that is what wore Michigan down – I think they’re tired. I would much rather rest – knowing we have won the Big Ten Title outright than wear our players out. No excuses. Just saying….

  • What the Knight era also taught us, is that a great system with GREAT players goes undefeated and wins the national championship.

  • Guest

    youre an idiot…….
    (im aware this will get deleted by the site but hopefully it will stick around long enough for you to see it. because honestly, you really are an idiot.)

  • Guest

    youre an idiot…….
    (im aware this will get deleted by the site but hopefully it will stick around long enough for you to see it. because honestly, you really are an idiot.)

  • IU80

    It’s worse – 33 games, not 32.

  • GMMARINE

    IU is not in synch. On the 16th, their shooting was horrific, too many mental lapses, no one taking charge. Plus, although Zeller get points, he is not tough enough in the middle. He will be just an average center in the NBA, unless unless he get a lets kick butt mentality.

  • I wouldn’t say major rebuilding, but we do look very weak next year. If everyone leaves who’s expected our starting lineup could possibly be Yogi, Remy, Sheehey, Vonleh, Perea… that’s pretty rough

  • pcantidote

    To me Louisville deserves it on paper, and with the eye test. They just appear to be the tougher team. I was watching their comeback against Syracuse thinking, man, they would blow us out. Hope I am wrong. I just don’t like the way our team looks right now.

  • pcantidote

    What do you know about next season? Look how our supposed great freshman class turned out this year. One stud, 3 duds and a transfer. That would translate to rebuilding next yearifthe class flops again.

  • pcantidote

    Good post. That would definitelybe one way to impact all this crazy conference jumping. Tie the conferences to regions. Excellent.

  • chiswede

    Thanks for your insight.

  • chiswede

    Thanks for your insight.

  • pcantidote

    I agree. Some of these potential 8 and 9 seeds look tough.

  • A TRAIN

    i dont care anymore n im bored talkin bout it..just giv me a #1 somewhere and lets get it on, we can still do this it just takes 1 game to get the mojo back n wer off n running..its prolly best to b put in the toughest region cause we play our best against big time teams…so all u iu fans lets get a good nap today n get ready for the selection show tonite so we can plot our destiny…go iu

  • chiswede

    Vote me down and delete your comment, good job.

  • chiswede

    Ugh, the subbing is killing me. I’m just praying that he’s been doing that to get the bench minutes before the tourney. He can’t possibly think that it’s working.

  • 5_Banners

    I totally agree with subbing. Crean better shorten the bench in the tourney or its going to bite us against good teams. He doesn’t need to play someone if they aren’t producing positive minutes i.e. Hollowell…the only bench player that deserved minutes was Remy and Will. Hulls should have sat the bench the second half because he wasn’t doing anything.

    The best lineup Crean put out there was Zeller, Sheehey, Ferrell, Abell and Oladipo. Thats when IU made their run to 50-49 and then Crean subbed out.

  • 5_Banners

    I wouldn’t say Hollowell is a dud by any means. Just because a freshman doesn’t produce like Noel or something doesn’t mean he’ll be a bust. Hollowell will be a important player for IU next season.

  • SCHoosier

    Kellogg..who knows his stuff..agreed with you and said so.

  • SCHoosier

    UL is going into the Big Dance with exactly the momentum..rotations and coaching they need to win it all.

  • Scott Berryman

    For all of those upset about Hulls, we have seen this from him before. He gets man handled and shoots poorly unless he is wide open. Not sure why this is a mystery to fans or CTC for that matter. Remy at 6’4″ has been on a tight lease in BIG. When Hulls is pouring in 5 ppg the last 2 weeks against tough opponents who play hard nosed defense. That is how teams beat IU.

    Funny how CTC still has no answers when we cant run. BTW we would Be better off having lost to Michigan and being number two seed in the Mid West. I would gladly tie for conference championship and play in back yard for a final 4/national title

  • HoosierKen73

    Pretty sure Jeffrey was not a Math major… or at least not at IU…lol…
    But I do have to agree in part with his point.

  • HoosierKen73

    I have to agree with you on this. When we had that run yesterday and tied it up at 49 – 49.. all at once we were done. When L’ville made their big 23 – 2 run (or 23 – 4 whatever it was), they kept it going until they had a ten or twelve point lead. We get a run started, but so often let it falter.. usually by substitution..and the subs not coming through. Oh well. I love Crean, so I’m not taking a pot shot at him… It’s just our seniors basically do not seem to be leading us effectively. JMO. Hope we can change that for the tourney.

  • WatchingYogi_atYogis

    Indy doesn’t guarantee us anything, of course. But needing to go through DC instead with a matchup against Duke looming before we even make it to the final four would make things just that much tougher for a team that is not exactly firing on all cylinders. I agree this might mean more to Midwest ticket holders than IU fans as a whole though.

    Still, I’ll add a little to the debate over who should be the one seed in the Midwest. Looking at valid selection criteria, it’s true that Louisville owns the slightest of edges, though in a number of areas, including overall record, conference record (including regular season and tournament), RPI, strength of schedule and wins versus the top 50. However, IU owns a significant advantage against RPI top 25 teams. We are 7-2, where they are just 4-3. Looking beyond quality wins to truly significant wins, we have beaten Michigan twice (once on the road), Michigan State twice (another big road win), on the road against Ohio State and beat Georgetown in our only matchup. That’s six truly big wins against team that are destined to fall on the 2 or 3 (maybe 4) line. Louisville has just three truly significant wins, Syracuse twice (once on the road) and at Memphis. They also lost their only matchup with Georgetown. We will own more wins, by far, against teams that will get 2 or 3 seeds tonight.

    On balance, I think Louisville might get the slight edge, but I can certainly see the justification of putting IU ahead of them. The committee has officially dropped the old “how are they playing lately” consideration, but if they do consider it, somewhat off the record or subconsciously, that’s Louisville all the way.

    On a purely subjective note, I wish they would start treating teams that are geographically located in the Midwest, but choose to align themselves with the Big East, and the ACC going forward as East or Atlantic Coast teams, rather than Midwest teams. Let them have their way. They want to be an east coast school when it comes to their television market. Let their midwest fans watch them on TV.

  • GMMARINE

    Where’s my comment? I’m an IU Bloomington grad, a life alumni and submitted a GREAT, on the mark, comments. No adverse-hate trash. Then somebody deletes it….WT?….has Wash socialism reached this blog? Reinsert my comments. GMMARINE

  • Hoosier4life

    Just watch what the committee put Wisconsin in our bracket…just like they put us in Kentucky’s for a revenge game last year. I feel they planned that matchup for Kentucky so they could take revenge on us. If Wisconsin is in our bracket, I feel the NCAA is just flat out against anything Indiana. They love it when we lose.

  • SCHoosier

    Yea..but we’re not close to that yet with this group…nobody else I see in this years field is either though. WIS style is absolutely the “antidote” for IU’s offense.

  • cdog

    The general thought is Louisville, Duke IU, and Gonzaga as 1 seeds. What about Kansas? I am hearing they could make the jump to a 1 seed. The only locks are Louisville and Gonzaga, who won their tournaments and have been hot the last couple of weeks. Going 3-3 in their last six games doesn’t bode well. I think OSU will probably get a #2 and WI could get as high as a #4. I think IU gets the #1 in the south region. Louisville deserves the Midwest region. They tied for the conference crown and won their tournament in the second best conference. Sorry guys, but IU did not earn it.

  • MillaRed

    IU does not look “very weak” next year. We lose quality and gain depth IMO. But I will say we are two years away from making another run like this one.

    Yogi and Will are All B1G candidates (2nd team?). Hollowell and Hanner will improve, and this freshmen class is a big deal. Gives us a lot of options moving forward.

  • MillaRed

    Because in the tournament they CALL FOULS!

  • MillaRed

    You are talking like a crazy person. We don’t do crazy in here. Turn that frown upside down buddy!

  • MillaRed

    Hey Bluegrass, 2 of the 3 losses were to Ohio State and Wisconsin, probable 2 and 4 seeds in the tournament. Not sure how many teams could have done better through that gauntlet in our schedule.

  • Disagree, depends at what you look for “on paper”. Top ten wins. Louisville has none. Best road win, Syracuse and that’s the only one. Only a share of an inferior Big East.

    It really depends on how the data is presented “on paper”.

    Indiana going 3-3 should at least be as irrelevant as UofL losing 3 straight, of which one was to a team outside the top50. If what matters is momentum right now, then sure, but when it comes to the best body of work. IU has above and far the higher quality wins.

  • jdewitt

    Look at the last of Louisville’s schedule and see how easy it was compared to IU’s.

  • jdewitt

    Look at the last of Louisville’s schedule and see how easy it was compared to IU’s.

  • must be nice to see inside of the players souls and make the no heart statement. this team won at OSU, UM and MSU with their lousy attitudes and heartless play. youre wayyy off base

  • pcantidote

    Clearly the impartial observers disagreed with you. It doesn’t matter now though. I would rather have our draw than theirs, Indy or not.