March Watch: Hoosiers look like a lock for No. 1 seed

  • 03/13/2013 9:10 am in

Indiana-72,-Michigan-71-13

Only four days remain until Selection Sunday and with a win at Michigan and an outright Big Ten championship, Indiana appears to be a lock for No. 1 seed. Our final edition of March Watch brings you the latest numbers behind IU’s nitty gritty profile and also a look at possible matchups for the Hoosiers in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament.

Overview

The Hoosiers have played once since our last update, winning a road game against Michigan and completing a regular season sweep of the Wolverines. With a Big Ten regular season championship that included road wins over Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State, the Hoosiers boast arguably the most impressive resume of any team in the country. In the latest s-curve of ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi, Indiana is No. 2 behind Duke. ($)

Nitty Gritty Profile

· Record: 26-5 (14-4 Big Ten)
· RPI: 5
· SOS: 11
· Home Record: 17-2
· Away Record: 7-2
· Neutral Court Record: 2-1
· vs. RPI Top 50: 8-5
· vs. RPI Top 51-100: 3-0

Indiana’s RPI rose five spots since our last update and its strength of schedule figure jumped up three spots.

Bracket Projections

· ESPN Bracketology (Joe Lunardi): 1 seed (Midwest) vs. Western Kentucky in Dayton
· CBS Sports (Jerry Palm): 1 seed (Midwest) vs. James Madison/Southern in Dayton
· Sports Illustrated (Andy Glockner): 1 seed (Midwest) vs. Southern/Western Kentucky in Dayton

All three bracket projections we’ve been tracking since January have Indiana as the No. 1 seed in the Midwest regional which will be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Of interest now are the potential regional opponents for the Hoosiers and each bracket offers different scenarios. Lunardi groups IU with Georgetown (2), New Mexico (3) and Oklahoma State (4). Palm has the Hoosiers with Georgetown (2), Miami (FL) (3) and Kansas State (4). Glockner’s scenario includes Louisville (2), Florida (3) and Kansas State (4). The Louisville scenario looks unlikely if the Cardinals win the Big East Tournament as they could be in line for a No. 1 seed of their own, most likely in the South regional. Crashing the Dance, which uses brackets from the past to predict what the selection committee will do, has IU as the third No. 1 seed.

Tournament Sites (distance in miles from Bloomington in parenthesis)

· First round: Dayton (139)
· Second, third rounds: Auburn Hills (295), Austin (881), Dayton (139), Kansas City (435), Lexington (133), Philadelphia (608), Salt Lake City (1343), San Jose (1908)
· Regional: Arlington (723), Indianapolis (45), Los Angeles (1791), Washington D.C. (515)
· Final Four: Atlanta

Filed to:

  • Mike Coleman

    · Second, third rounds: Auburn Hills
    (295), Austin (881), Dayton (139), Kansas City (435), Lexington (133),
    Philadelphia (608), Salt Lake City (1343), San Jose (1908)

    With Lexington being closer (by 6 miles) and larger in size, why is IU not projected there?

  • I am doing my own aggregated statistical profile for the potential field and at first blush Duke and IU have separated themselves from the field (Gonzaga because of so few RPI Top 25 matchups is close to UL that leads the next tier of four teams bunched under the top two. A 3rd grouping of six teams that includes 3/4 B10 runners up follow that group.

    Duke has a 7-1 record against RPI 1-25 while IU has an 8-3, IU then gets hurt with a 0-2 record against RPI 26-50 while Duke is 3-1. The significance is the overall S-Curve for both teams where the seeding falls 1-64, 2-63 and so on through the brackets. The other importance is that IU and Duke could be paired as far as seeding goes to the Final Game.

    IU has a chance to play 3 more RPI Top 25 teams (UM, MSU or OSU, though 2 at the most) or 2 RPI-26-50 teams (MN or IL and/or UW). If Iowa puts on a slipper they are in the RPI 51-100.

    For IU to overtake Duke in aggregate Nitty Gritty compares it would be best to play MN, UM, MSU and have Duke lose in the ACC finals. Then IU would have a narrow case for the Number One Seed in an S-Curve basis.

  • calbert40

    As much as I think it is laughable to think that Illinois and Minnesota are “worse” than Purdue, the fact that our first game in the B1G tourney is going to be against a probable tourney team insulates us against the proverbial “bad” loss early in our tourney. I don’t see any way we don’t end up as the #1 seed in the Midwest. (Maybe if we lose our first game, UL wins the Big East and Kansas wins the Big 12 we fall to a different region, but I think we’ve sewn up a #1 seed).

    So far as Iowa being Cinderella, that is exactly what I think will happen. They will coast past NW, who is probably the worst team in the B1G right now. I think they are the one team in the B1G that is backed into a corner and MUST win a couple games to get in. Usually when a team is in that situation, they perform well. In our office pool, I have predicted an IU-Iowa championship game.

  • Evansville Hoosier

    In Georgetown, Miami, Louisville and Florida we have 4 teams that were at one point considered 1 seeds. Those would be pretty tough 2 and 3 seed draws.

  • PDXHoosier

    I don’t want Georgetown in our bracket. their style is exactly the kind that gives us trouble, and it’s always harder to beat a team the second time

  • Neil

    Michigan, MSU, Iowa or OSU are the teams that will win the B1G tourney because they stand to gain the B1G the most by upping their seed numbers. They will get all the calls in their games until they play each other. I guarantee it. Since IU has the #1 all sewn up.

  • Medina_Sod

    Dayton is actually a slightly shorter drive than Lexington, as well as being closer to Indianapolis, where I would imagine many IU fans might be traveling from.

    The Lexington pod is the closest to most teams from the SE part of the country, such as Florida and Miami. Also, Louisville is looking like a potential #1 or at least #2, so they will likely be placed in the Lexington pod. I doubt they would put two #1s (or #2) in the same pod location when they could “spread the wealth” to another pod that makes sense and doesn’t have a #1 or #2.

  • Iowa is playing very well right now, they are 7-5 last 12, (if they make it to the B10 Final they would be 8-4 last 12) and they would have 3-7 record against Top-25 RPI, (of course losing in the Final, if they win they make at-large consideration moot), that said they would push themselves into the proverbial bubble either pushing out MN (if they lose badly to IL that could happen) but since B10 has best conference RPI and other power ratings it would warrant a 12 seed—and a very dangerous, hot one at that, of course provided they indeed beat NW, MSU, and OSU thru Sat.

  • IUHoosiers23

    I have never been so excited for something in my life. Don’t tell my fiance lol

  • I hate it when you say that the Hoosiers are already a “lock” for a number one seed. So that means no matter what happens in the B1G tourney? Are you not tempting fate? Is there no way this could become “unlocked?”

  • CreamandCrimson

    Iowa is certainly playing better than they did at the start of the B1G season but their improved record over the past 12 games, they have beaten Penn State twice, Nebraska, Purdue at home, Northwestern at home and then Minnesota and Illinois (at home). One of their recent losses was a loss at Nebraska.

    I think they are playing well right now but I’m not sure how much of it is them getting a whole lot better and how much of it is them getting wins against the bottom of the conference.

  • The talking heads are just that….full of many agenda’s and personal opinions, dig into the data and you will see there are truly 2 #1 seeds right now, and six teams that you can mix or match at 2 or 1’s because you have to fill in the brackets. If it plays out (according to today’s numbers which will not change much in conf tourney’s) the matchups of the following; UL, Gonz, NM, G’Town, KU, MSU, Miami, UM, OSU and FL are pretty conflated.

    Gonz and NM are more speculative in that there is less data against RPI 1-25’s than the other teams from B10, ACC, BEast, BXII, and SEC. But notice in this groupings fully 1/4 of the teams come from the B10, two from BEast, 2 ACC, 1 ea from BigXII and SEC. What this tells you is that the B10 has been tested over and over again.

    What the data is suggesting is that at the 64 and 32 round again upsets will seemingly rise but once the dust settles I suspect 75% of the above teams will be standing at the 16 (9/12), from there the contests will be dogfights, but the data is also suggesting that Duke and IU will be there at the 4-team round.

  • all good teams at their level will give us trouble, comparably speaking to a team like Jacksonville, then again, IIRC watching the IU-NW game they also gave us a contest. The teams to watch out for are strong defensive slow tempo, 3 pt shooting and rebounding teams in the RPI 26-50, we are 0-2 against them…(we are 8-3 against the RPI 1-25, one more win than Duke, though they are 7-1 and a better % in the RPI 1-25). Those are the ‘trap’ games, Butler, UW, IL, UW; OSU was a traditional Top1-25 RPI trap game that all teams fall because of the odds, (IU `75-76 exempted)

  • remember I said provided they beat two Top 1-25 RPI teams thru the weekend

  • CreamandCrimson

    I’m well aware of that and I wasn’t commenting on the validity of their current bubble status or what it will take to get them into the tournament. I was just questioning (rhetorically, not saying you were making an argument either way) whether or not they were really getting better or if they were just loading up on wins against the bottom of the league.

  • The_Real_Assembly_Hall

    You lock it up. No you lock it up.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IpHHtl8gC4

  • BluegrassHoosier

    If we don’t make it to the weekend and Louisville wins the Big East tournament, they will take our place in Indy. Saying “it’s a lock” understates the value the committee puts on conference tournaments.

  • BluegrassHoosier

    If we don’t make it to the weekend and Louisville wins the Big East tournament, they will take our place in Indy. Saying “it’s a lock” understates the value the committee puts on conference tournaments.

  • Mooks

    Lets just win the tourney so we don’t have to come up with all of these silly secondary and tertiary scenarios.

  • The cliche of having a greater will or most to gain/lose is a small part of it. The teams that get to Sunday finals will be playing at their best. I honestly think this year the top 6 teams are all focused on winning and even PSU and NW has a strong desire to win. As for IU nothing is sewed up, nothing.

  • By definition a .500 team usually beats lessor opponents and gets beat by better ones. The thing is I have watched IA and they have developed into a better club, they lost way too many games early by a single possession otherwise they could be 10-8 or better. The MN and IL wins were good. There has to be a Cinderella otherwise the pumpkin doesn’t turn into a coach?

  • Getting anxious? In my world we have planned a weekend gathering at our family’s vacation home with my former collegiate roommates & fraternity bros., w/spouses; if IU loses on Fri., cancelled, if loss happens on Sat, we probably go home after dinner, if Sun we sleep over and have fun regardless. There are no silly scenarios, been here before, enjoy the ride.

  • data says not likely

  • Ole Man

    Don’t won’t to see Georgetown again anytime soon!

  • That’s the only scenario I see us losing Indy to Louisville. We’d still be a #1 in but in the South as it looks like Duke – East & Gonzaga – West seem locked.

  • BluegrassHoosier

    I hope you are right and I’m wrong.

    Our last 10 games we’re 7-3; UofL is 9-1 (only loss 5OT at ND). If we don’t win on Friday and they win out, our last 5 games we’ll be 2-3; UofL will be 5-0 and Big East tournament and conference champions. So I can’t see how we’ve wrapped up the Indy seed (or a #1 seed already). Hopefully our guys won’t leave it up to the judges, we’ll win in Chicago, and our debate about what ifs won’t matter.

  • BluegrassHoosier

    We also have to worry about Kansas if we early exit in Chicago. I agree with you the East and West are taken. Just the South and Midwest are left, and Kansas, UofL, and IU are playing musical chairs for those 2 seats.

  • BluegrassHoosier

    We also have to worry about Kansas if we early exit in Chicago. I agree with you the East and West are taken. Just the South and Midwest are left, and Kansas, UofL, and IU are playing musical chairs for those 2 seats.

  • Floriadhoosier

    We must remember where we were 4 years ago. Being a no. 1 seed is great, but being in the tournament is where we want to be. We would have killed to be in this position several years ago. We have come a long way, but still a way to go. GO HOOSIERS.

  • Let us reshuffle your perspective, how about look at in the last 12 games; UL is 10-2 losing to the one TOP-25 RPI’s in BEast, they played 5 RPI 26-50, lost to @ND, beat @Cuse, the rest they won at home. fine…IU is 9-3, they faced 7 RPI 1-25, went 5-2, winning 3 @, lost to one RPI 26-50 on the road.

    But the reality is this: when you do the numbers IU is 15.9% better than UL’s body of work, I am going to publish a blog on this aggregated data review but a peak is that IU is 3% less than Duke’s numbers, UL is 15% below IU at 3rd and NM is 18.7% below IU (2.5% under UL and 1% better than Kansas’ numbers).

    I am using a methodology of aggregating data like Nate Silver and combining that with the Nitty Gritty criteria that the Selection Com uses.

  • PDXHoosier

    is this an advertisement?

  • KU has a really bad loss to TCU which by any account is part of their body of work, that killed their No 1 bid status this year period.

  • marcusgresham

    …and just got throttled by Baylor

  • It’s fun to look at just the numbers but Duke finished second in it’s conference. I really don’t think they’ll get #1 overall seed with that, which will likely place them as a 1 seed out of their geographical region.

  • It’s fun to look at just the numbers but Duke finished second in it’s conference. I really don’t think they’ll get #1 overall seed with that, which will likely place them as a 1 seed out of their geographical region.

  • JulieS

    Let Duke be the overall #1 and place us second. That way we hopefully won’t see them until April 8.