What to Expect: Purdue

  • 02/15/2013 12:31 pm in

021512euhIndiana will finish a two-game homestand on Saturday afternoon as arch rival Purdue comes to Assembly Hall. The Boilermakers are 5-7 in the conference and have dropped five of their last seven Big Ten games. Indiana won the first meeting this season 97-60 on Jan. 30 in West Lafayette. Saturday’s game will be the 200th meeting all-time between the two schools.¬†

The game will be broadcast at 2 p.m. on ESPN with Bob Wischusen and Dan Dakich on the call:

Rivalry games have a way of producing closer than expected outcomes even when the odds are heavily in favor of one team, but that wasn’t the case when Indiana traveled north to Mackey Arena last month. Not only did the Hoosiers deliver a lopsided beatdown, they handed the Boilermakers their worst home loss ever and sent their season into a downward spiral.

In its four games since losing to IU, Purdue lost at Northwestern by 15, won at winless in the Big Ten Penn State by 9, lost by 13 to Michigan State at home and lost by 20 at Illinois. The frustration reached a boiling point (no pun intended) in the Illinois loss as Matt Painter was ejected.

Indiana, meanwhile, has surged back to No. 1 in the Associated Press top 25 poll and responded to a last-second loss at Illinois with double digit wins over Ohio State and Nebraska. The Hoosiers are looking for a second consecutive sweep of the Boilermakers in a meeting of two teams going in vastly different directions.

PERSONNEL

If there’s one thing Indiana won’t be pleased with after reviewing the tape of the first meeting between these two teams, it’ll be the fact that A.J. Hammons was saddled with foul trouble and still managed to score 30 points. Hammons has been one of the few bright spots for Painter in conference play with averages of 13.1 points (51.8 percent shooting) and 7.8 rebounds per game. Talent has never been a question with Hammons, but effort and a willingness to compete consistently have been. If Hammons is engaged, he’s one of the better big men in the league.

The rest of Purdue’s frontcourt is a mostly forgettable committee of players that don’t bring much in the way of production. Donnie Hale, Jacob Lawson and Travis Carroll have all contributed at different junctures, but none of the three averages more than five points or 3.5 rebounds.

The backcourt and wing positions are where Purdue gets most of its offensive production with junior Terone Johnson leading the team at 13.0 points per game. Johnson’s efficiency is woeful (43.5 eFG%), but he can get into the lane and finish plays when at his best. His younger brother Ronnie, a freshman, has been even worse from an efficiency standpoint (37.5 eFG%), but has a team-high 26.3 assist rate (95 total assists). Better suited as a pure point guard than a scorer, the younger Johnson has been thrust into more of an offensive role than Painter would probably like due to a lack of offensive options.

On the wing, D.J. Byrd is the closest thing Purdue has to a reliable threat as the senior shoots a team-high 35.5 percent on 3-point field goal attempts. Byrd’s shot selection is heavily skewed to the perimeter as 155 of his 205 field goal attempts have been from distance. Sophomore Anthony Johnson and freshman Raphael Davis also see minutes on the wing and the numbers suggest Purdue is better off going with Davis whenever possible. Davis is shooting 52.1 percent on twos while Johnson is at 40.4 percent. Davis is also the better rebounder and defender.

POMEROY PREVIEW

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As woeful as Purdue’s offense has been in Big Ten play (.95 points per possession), the defense has also been inept. Simply put, successful Painter teams have been built on defense and this one isn’t. The Boilermakers are giving up 1.06 points per possession to conference opponents. Both figures rank 10th in the Big Ten.

Purdue has actually defended twos well (44 percent), but the Boilermakers are allowing league opponents to shoot 35.5 percent on threes and are last in forcing turnovers with a defensive turnover percentage of 14.6. An inability to force the Hoosiers to turn it over and failing to guard the perimeter is a recipe for getting beat handily.

From an offensive standpoint, Purdue relies on shots inside the arc to score more than any other team. The Boilermakers are scoring 62.3 of their points in Big Ten play on twos, which leads the league and just 18.7 of their points on threes, which is last in the league. The strategy on Saturday will likely consistent of trying to establish Hammons early and see if the Hoosiers choose to play him straight up again with Cody Zeller.

Two other areas to keep an eye on are offensive rebounds and turnovers. In the first meeting, Indiana grabbed 54.5 percent of its misses, which is a season-high for IU in Big Ten play. Indiana also limited its turnovers in West Lafayette, posting a turnover percentage of just 11.9 percent. Both of those factors combined with a solid shooting night created what was essentially a perfect storm offensively for the Hoosiers, which resulted in a 37-point blowout.

WHAT IT COMES DOWN TO

On paper, this game is a total mismatch and the fact that it’s taking place at Assembly Hall makes it even more lopsided. That said, expecting Indiana to replicate its performance in West Lafayette would be foolish. Ken Pomeroy likes the Hoosiers to win easily, 82-59, with a 97% chance of the Hoosiers picking up their 11th Big Ten win.

As was the case in the first meeting when some wondered if Indiana would look past Purdue with Michigan looming, a similar scenario comes into play here with Michigan State waiting in East Lansing on Tuesday. In previous seasons, looking ahead may have been a realistic concern, but the focus and maturity this Indiana team has exhibited in recent weeks suggests the “one game at a time” approach is actually the reality for this group.

All tempo-free stats via KenPom.com.

Filed to:

  • Alex

    Expect a blowout. That is all.

  • Alex

    Expect a blowout. That is all.

  • CreamandCrimson

    I would certainly think Purdue has some pride and will be playing with as much as they can muster after we did to them in West Lafayette (and after a shellacking in Champagne on Wednesday). I think they might be able to hang around for a bit and make things interesting for about 10-15 minutes before the Hoosiers get on a roll and bury them.

    Things I’ll be watching for will be:

    -How do we decide to guard Hammons? (I’d love to see Zeller get him in early foul trouble and put him on the bench)
    -Can Remy replicate the solid play he showed on Nebraska?

    -Will Matt Painter get himself booted from a second straight game to avoid watching his team?

    I’d love to drill them by 50 and make them complain about us running up the score again but I’d be more than happy with a solid win before heading to East Lansing.

  • I would guess that Indiana has been preparing for MSU all week, watching MSU film, strategy, matchups, etc. Saturday before the PU game they will reherse the previous PU strategy and matchups from a few weeks ago.

  • Btown88

    Has there been any color designation for the PUke game? Red out/white out?

  • Btown88

    Has there been any color designation for the PUke game? Red out/white out?

  • OhioHoosier

    I saw a Red Out on facebook but nothing about it on IU’s website…

  • The PU basketball boards are REALLY down on this team. They think the players have flat quit on Painter. If you want a good laugh, check out the Indiana, Northwestern, or Illinois game threads at ‘Hammer and Rails’. They are a lot of fun.

  • Thomas

    For me, the most important thing in What to Expect is that after the game CTC will be 78-78 at IU in less than 5 years. Get this win and “never look back.”

    …And, for the second game in a row, I am hoping Taylor Wayer gets a trillion.

  • PDXHoosier

    I doubt this game will be as lopsided as the last one. Always difficult to beat a team twice in a row, even if they are as bad as PU. I expect Painter to make some adjustments to make the game ugly. That being said, I think we are just too much better than them for it to be very close.

  • Heck, the analyst on the PURDUE forum’s preview predicts Indiana 103, Purdue 55! They have given up.

  • MillaRed

    A tidbit from Alex’s dad on Twitter,

    “Tom Crean has flipped script. If IU wins Sat, it will be just 3rd time since 1976, IU has beaten Purdue 4 straight.”

    Pretty amazing stat.

  • Daburns0

    I think IU wins, but I would expect a Nebraska like start. I would say the game is inside of 20 points. Hopefully the fans will be in to this one. When I was at IU, we were 2-2 against Purdue at home! Those were the worst walks home from assembly hall ever. We don’t want to sleep on this game.

  • IUHoosiers23

    Going to my first IU game this year tomorrow! So excited to see the Hoosiers live and be a part of this magical season. Let’s get ’em boys!!

  • SCHoosier

    Be interesting to see what Crean does with Hammons defensively. More important to keep Cody out of foul trouble that it is stopping Hammons (as long as IU clamps down on all the other scorers as they did in West Laf. ) If PU gets hot…Hammons is too big to stop from behind..and too wide to reach around without filing..so I assume Cody fronts him..or tries too. Hopefully IU’s offense and total D will negate any concern Hammons brings to the party.

  • SCHoosier

    Be interesting to see what Crean does with Hammons defensively. More important to keep Cody out of foul trouble that it is stopping Hammons (as long as IU clamps down on all the other scorers as they did in West Laf. ) If PU gets hot…Hammons is too big to stop from behind..and too wide to reach around without filing..so I assume Cody fronts him..or tries too. Hopefully IU’s offense and total D will negate any concern Hammons brings to the party.

  • SCHoosier

    Match ups are still ugly. VO can only guard one man…assume its Dawson again leaving Harris..who may currently be the hottest 3 pt shooter in the conference once again to Hulls and others. Scary.

  • twarrior87

    I would usually agree, but since the first one was at Mackey and this one’s at Assembly, I think the Hoosiers could easily win by 20+ again.

  • twarrior87

    I would usually agree, but since the first one was at Mackey and this one’s at Assembly, I think the Hoosiers could easily win by 20+ again.

  • WisconHoosier

    That may be the halftime score.

  • John Cole

    Not taking any team for granted. Wisconsin this year and Minnesota last year brings that memory to mind. Plus, PU still has the butt kicking we gave them @ Mackey on their minds. Gonna be DJ Byrd’s last game in Assembly Hall. Good riddance Mr. Byrd.

  • Gregory I took your suggestion and read the Purdue blog for the first IU game. Purdue fans started by blaming the refs, later when the game ws out of reach they were hoping for an IU player to get injured. Finally one fan’s answer is that Purdue is so good academically it should recruit the smarter kids away from the Ivies. LOL

  • OldIUGymnast

    Didn’t Dawson get hurt and will be out for several games?

  • IUJeff

    This is a practice game to get our bench some valuable PT before MSU.

    Not looking past the PUkes. It is what it is.

    Time to sweep them for the 2nd season in a row and continue to restore order in the B1G.

  • IUJeff

    Not sleeping on the PUkes. Get up by 25 then work in the bench to hold serve the rest of the game. IUs bench can hang and probably extend the lead on little brother.

  • IUJeff

    The apprentice won’t beat the master in East Lansing IMO. Too bad but they have hit their stride just as they most always do. Last year was an anomally for MSU.
    Hope I am wrong but have a bad feeling about the MSU game. At Minny won’t be a cake walk either. Could easily lose those 2 then win the last 3 including @ MU.

  • IU bball nut

    this game should be a gimmee What i am curious to see is if Cody will get 25 in the game. Looking at the stats, I think he is at 975 points. Since next two games are on the road will CTC try and get Cody to 1000 at home?

  • Henry

    The BoiLs will try – but fade in second half. Expect big numbers from Watford and Oladipo in the final 5 minutes. IU by 17 !

  • Ole Man

    About 20-25 pts. But it doesn’t really open up until the second half.
    Purdue just plays better this game.

    That said, this Hoosier team is special!

  • Kenneth234

    Exactly, front Hammons and keep a ton of ball pressure. Thus take away the guards pressure release and find out if they can throw perfect passes in the face of tough ball pressure instead of allowing an easy pressure release pass into Hammons. We should win easily and hold Hammons under 20.

  • Kenneth234

    Exactly, front Hammons and keep a ton of ball pressure. Thus take away the guards pressure release and find out if they can throw perfect passes in the face of tough ball pressure instead of allowing an easy pressure release pass into Hammons. We should win easily and hold Hammons under 20.

  • SCHoosier

    Be great to five the first 7 players some bench time..with MSU coming up in 3 days. Gotta close the door on PU though..they won’t lay down against the Hoosiers.

  • WatchingYogi_atYogis

    Branden Dawson is expected to play the game prior to ours against Nebraska, so no such luck.

  • SCHoosier

    I hear ya..don’t see anyway we can sweep the rest of the schedule…but stranger things have happened.

  • WatchingYogi_atYogis

    I don’t think there is anyway that we drop that game at Minnesota. Just my opinion.

  • WatchingYogi_atYogis

    I expect VO to move around a bit. The way that Yogi handled Appling in the first, you can expect Yogi to start with the same assignment. I would expect VO on Dawson, Watford on Payne and Zeller on Nix, leaving Hulls on Harris again to begin as the safe pick. But anytime they go smaller, as they frequently do, I think Watford switches to Dawson and VO goes over to Harris. Personally that makes it seem like a bad play for them to go small. Also interesting will be whether we go zone again. Izzo is known as a master at breaking down the zone, but we used it as a foil in the first game anyways.

    I hope the coaching staff really challenges Hulls to get into Harris from outside and force him to beat us with the drive. I thought Hulls did a good job of this against Stauskas. Even though Stauskas has the ability to drive, especially on Hulls, it just didn’t seem like what he was comfortable doing. Getting a guy to do something he is theoretically and realistically capable of, but just not comfortable with, is a limited defender’s best chance sometimes.

  • LeeTimmer

    I expect an IU win, but look for Little Brother to put up more of a fight after the atomic wedgie received last month.

  • LeeTimmer

    I expect an IU win, but look for Little Brother to put up more of a fight after the atomic wedgie received last month.

  • WatchingYogi_atYogis

    Wait, you went to a Purdue forum? About basketball?

  • It’s schadenfreude!

  • It’s schadenfreude!

  • unclekerfuffle

    I would assume CTC will have someone front Hammons. He only seems to play at the low post so that should not be too hard.

    Edit:

    Sorry. I should have read all the comments before posting.

  • HannerTime Hoosier

    LOOKS LIKE WILL SHEEHEY WILL WIN pick 2 click. dang!

  • CreanFaithful

    Check out MSU recruiting for next year… I’ll give you a heads up: ZERO player signed. They went all in for Jabari Parker, but how are they recruit-less? Baffling to me.