Around the Hall: KenPom model likes IU to win Big Ten

  • 01/02/2013 11:26 am in

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Around the Hall is recommended reading from the Inside the Hall staff:

· Ken Pomeroy introduced his conference title predictions by simulating league play 10,000 times using his ratings. IU was the runaway victor in the Big Ten.

· Eamonn Brennan has a solid Big Ten primer over at ESPN.com to get you prepped for league play. Brennan also writes that Victor Oladipo has emerged as IU’s biggest star.

· Jeff Goodman also takes a look at the Big Ten over at CBSSports.com as does Rob Dauster at NBCSports.com.

· Cody Zeller slides to No. 9 in the latest CBSSports.com national player of the year race.

· Tom Crean attempted to help a 19-year old free his car from a ditch following IU’s win over Jacksonville.

· Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News looks at five things learned from IU’s win at Iowa.

· Eric Gordon is back in action for the New Orleans Hornets under a minutes restriction.

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  • Hoosier Daddy

    Keep in mine KenPom also had UK #1 in his preseason pole. Lol

  • SCHoosier

    Lot of his numbers based on IU’s pre-conference cupcakes..throw them out. Whole new set of statistics coming our way in the B-10

  • SCHoosier

    Lot of his numbers based on IU’s pre-conference cupcakes..throw them out. Whole new set of statistics coming our way in the B-10

  • PDXHoosier

    Yeah I don’t think IU should be a runaway favorite to win the B1G like his numbers suggest. But I still think they should win the B1G!!

  • Brklynhoosier

    First of all, @SCHoosier:disqus , KenPom adjusts his numbers based on schedule strength, which is to say he’s taken the cupcakes into account — and though I’ve only been following him since last year, I’ll say that his analysis seems very good — it certainly did a much better job of predicting our record last year than any of the “experts.” Second, though, he ran 10,000 simulations — sorry Alex — and all of you, if this comes off pedantic (I’m a math teacher, it’s what I do) — but you’re mischaracterizing his results.

    IU was -not- the runaway winner. IU won in 5489 of the 10,000 simulations. Which is to say that, according to KenPom’s analysis, IU has about a 55% chance of winning the conference. Yes, that’s better than any other school — but it’s only slightly better than a coin-toss. OSU has about a 16% chance of winning (about the same as rolling a 5 on a six-sided die), Minny has about 13% (slightly better than the odds of flipping a single coin heads three times in a row), Michigan slightly better than 10%, etc.

    He gives Middle Tennessee, on the other hand, a near 95% chance of winning the Sun Belt! -That’s- what runaway victory looks like. (Duke also has ~90% chance of winning the ACC, according to the model).

    Again, apologies — just wish ppl had a better grasp of statistical analysis…

  • IUMIKE1

    Your interpretation of his numbers is very interesting and the way you have broken them down makes them very easy to understand. I had not looked at KenPom’s numbers so thank you for taking the time to do that and breaking it down for everyone.

    I guess looking at those numbers, and to put it in a non-math teacher way, this year is a crap shoot and it appears that there are several teams that may win the conference title at this point in time. lol

  • Brklynhoosier

    I wouldn’t call it a crapshoot — I’d much rather have a 55% chance of winning (IU) than a 0.82% chance (MSU), or a 0.01% chance of merely tying for the title (PU). But I wouldn’t bet the farm, either…

  • Brklynhoosier

    I wouldn’t call it a crapshoot — I’d much rather have a 55% chance of winning (IU) than a 0.82% chance (MSU), or a 0.01% chance of merely tying for the title (PU). But I wouldn’t bet the farm, either…

  • mike

    Just based on what I’ve seen, Michigan is the best right now. They’re playing kick-a– basketball, whereas IU has not, often letting far inferior teams stay right with them for most of a half. Michigan has such an incredible combo of shooters and athletes. I suppose one could say that of IU too, but right now, I just think we’re underachieving.

  • mike

    they won’t win it. Hardaway Jr will go wild with Jordy guarding him. Or shall we put Jordy on Stauskas? Same result. How abou Gary Harris, think he’ll be a tad bit excited to have Jordy guarding him? So will a few other guards. Everyone is fogetting that last year we matched up well on D because we only had one small guard. Now we are playing two together, so Jordy keeps getting matched up against longer, more athletic guys. Can’t beat elite B10 teams that way, sorry. If you doubt me, go look at the tapes of the Gtown and Butler games. In each, opposing guards had their way.

  • the 10,000 game simulation is somewhat meaningless. All this tells me is that IU is the team that SHOULD win, but we don’t get 10,000 tries at each game and any team in the B1G can win on any given day… but I guess it gives the 24hr news cycle at ESPN something to talk about

  • Brklynhoosier

    Exactly.