A look at New Mexico State by the numbers

  • 03/13/2012 2:14 pm in

With an assist from Ken Pomeroy, here’s a look at how the Aggies stack up in the tempo-free world:

OFFENSE

They are a good, but not great, offensive squad. Their adjusted offensive efficiency of 107.6 (points scored per 100 possessions adjusted for pace) ranks 67th. (For comparison, Indiana’s mark of 120.2 ranks fourth in the nation). This also is not an elite shooting team, as their eFG% of 50.7 ranks 102nd among Division I squads. The Aggies are also a bit sloppy with the ball (20.7 TO%, 198th), but this could be due a bit to their faster adjusted pace (70.9 possessions per game, 19th in the nation). But as has been noted before, this team does excel in two important four factor areas: Offensive rebounding and getting to the line. Only three teams in the country have rebounded a higher percentage of their misses than the Aggies, who have snagged an impressive 40.8 percent of their missed shots. And no team in the country has gotten to the line more this season, as the Aggies free throw rate of 52.8 (FTA/FGA) ranks first. Yet, they’re only connecting on 66.4% of their attempts from the charity stripe.

As such, it’s shaping up to be a game in which Indiana is going to have to bring high energy from the start to combat a fast-paced Aggies squad that gets after it on the boards and makes it to the line with great frequency.

DEFENSE

Again: Good. Not great. New Mexico State is allowing 95.5 points per 100 possessions (adjusted for pace), good for 68th in the nation. And its opponents are shooting decent enough (47.8 eFG%, 128th in the nation). They’ve defended the 3-pointer pretty well (allowing just 32.0% shooting there, ranking them 68th). And they’re not just a strong offensive rebounding squad. By allowing opponents to rebound 29.4% of their misses, just 62 have allowed less offensive boards for their opponents. Pomeroy lists the Aggies as a mostly man squad in his defensive fingerprint section, so they’re unlikely to throw any type of gimmicky 1-3-1 zone at the Hoosiers.

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  • nice write. thanks for the insights. 

  • catronhoosier

    I don’t think anyone on here is going to say that this team can’t put up a fight and is not a good team.  However, have to remember with statistics, there is a big difference between doing this against B1G teams, and WAC teams. 

    that being said this is a game as pointed out in the write up, that we have to come out to play early or we can be in a big big hole.   They play fast and what would normally be a 6or7-0 run will turn into a 12 or 15-0 run very fast and mean the end of our season. 

    We are the better team and I believe we will win this game.  No longer does style matter, this is simply about advancing and thats all that matters (winning always mattered and was most important but everyone always says that games carry over during the regular season and an ugly win is a bad sign, however that does not apply anymore). 

    and also lets win this game so we can shut up all the “experts.”  I watched the shwo on ESPNU called “The Experts: Tournament Breakdown” and they all picked NM St to beat us because we really arent that good and we are just happy to be in the tourney. 

  • HoosierDadE

    I like their mascot picture, killer mustache with couple six shooters (I know, dynamite insight on the write up or the game)…

    The thing that scares me the most, is the first 5 minutes of the game.  Play even or ahead and I like our chances.  Wish I could be in Portland, bring home a win Alex.

  • HoosierDadE

    I like their mascot picture, killer mustache with couple six shooters (I know, dynamite insight on the write up or the game)…

    The thing that scares me the most, is the first 5 minutes of the game.  Play even or ahead and I like our chances.  Wish I could be in Portland, bring home a win Alex.

  • Kleeman20

    Ridiculous the amount of “experts” picking against IU….. Aggies are good team, but no where near the caliber of team that IU is and IU has proved it against one of the tougher schedules in the country…. All the talk about the Hoosiers away from Bloomington is a bit overstated (5-7 I think)… Isn’t the best, but isn’t terrible (losses include @ Mich St., Ohio St., Wisconsin (twice), Michigan among others… not exactly gimme away games and games that A LOT of teams lose on the road or neutral courts… Still have some impressive wins on road/neutral as well…. I think going out to Portland will be good for Hoosiers… no pressure, just play boys…. LOVE MARCH MADNESS!!!

  • DCHoosier

    Just so everyone get’s a look at their blog:

    http://bballgroves.blogspot.com/

    Gives us a better insight as to what they think of us.

  • Naked Samurai

    The Cowboys can really take advantage of the inexperienced Hoosiers’ nerves and jump out early.  Indiana would have to expend a lot of energy repairing their defensive boarding and could also get into foul trouble, leading to a real headache of a game.

    Try to keep it close early as NMSU plays with a ton of energy and IU tries to get their sea legs.

  • KevOMG

    In case anyone is looking to see what NMST is saying about playing us…

    http://bballgroves.blogspot.com/

  • KevOMG

    In case anyone is looking to see what NMST is saying about playing us…

    http://bballgroves.blogspot.com/

  • sheldogiu

    Man I just don’t like the rebounding advantage that they have in this game, second chance points have killed IU all this season…I would bet 4 of IU’s 8 losses are because of 2nd chance points

  • IUJeff

    Not so fast my friend.

    What would you say if I told  you that in the 2 games we played MSU this year, they were only +1 in rebounds on us?

    How bout Wisky in our 2 losses? We were +5 on them in rebounding.

    IU can play with anyone on a given night. Have faith.
     

  • jermhoosierfan

    I will love it when they win these 2 games and give a big “Told you so” to all the “experts”.  Yeah, they play better at Assembly Hall, but they can beat just about anyone on a given night if they come out with intensity.  That is the one thing this team needs to do every game which is come out with that mindset that they are not going to beat us tonight.

  • Kenneth234

    Yeah, I watched the same show, and could not believe my ears.  So I went to ESPN3 and watched a replay of their conference championship game, and I have to say…I was relieved quite a bit.  The obvious things that jumped out at me is that they allow average at best ball handlers to dribble and try to make plays which is all good in the WCC (or at least against LA Tech) and below average defensive effort and ability, but if in the Big Ten, they would not come close to getting away with it. 

    The other obvious thing is that they are simply big guys. Their PF Mckennie (I think), has a build that would remind us of Gary Trent (formerly of Ohio), and I believe their small forward body build is similiar to a Corlius Williamson (formerly of Arkansas), and both shot the ball well, but again, it was not a strong or even average defensive team that they were playing.  The only reason they give me concern is because it is really up to the refs to ensure that they are not just allowed to bull their way through defenders that have position without getting a charging call.  If the refs swallow the whistle and IU defenders hit the floor, they will likely get open dunks all game long.  Otherewise, I think they will commit a bunch of charges, and turn the ball over a lot as well. 

    Their starting and back up Center are extremely big.  I believe the commentators of the game said the starter was 7′ 269 lbs, and the back up was 6’11” 240.  However I was not impressed with their ability to catch the ball in the post with a defender, and they are not gifted in actual inside skill or foot speed either.  Cody Zeller may have to show a medium to short jump shot, to get the defender away from the bucket, but if he does than he will be able to take either to the rim off the dribble, whenever he wants. 

    At PF, I don’t think they can matchup anyone but Mckinnie on Watford or Elston because the other guys just do not have the foot speed to gaurd his perimeter game and his drive game.  I like our chances at our big screeners at the top of the key getting their defender at a disadvantage, or anyone of our gaurds driving to the rim against them when they get lifted toward the top of the paint. 

    At their gaurd slot, I actually like their freshman gaurd and his ability on both sides of the ball more than their Senior PG.  But neither of them shoot the ball well, and I didn’t see a lot of active hands on shooters from the perimeter.  So I suspect that we can get our shooters good uncontested looks in the half court. 

    In the transition game, I think that we are actually quicker than them at every position, even throughout the bench.  Even Hulls should be able to get free off the dribble.  In my opinion if he can get good looks in the Big Ten, New Mexico St will not be able to do much. 

    As for their rebounding, again this comes down to the refs, if they allow the bigger guys to use their strength to move our rebounders out of position then they will be successful, otherwise they will collect a lot of loose ball fouls for going over the back. 

    I think overall we present three times the match up problems for them than they do for us, as long as the game is officiated fairly.  If we shoot well, rebound effecively, and do not allow Mckinnie to get going, then we can win easily. 

  • melvinButthurt

    In the NC state game. We played with a lot of intensity on the road. That was early on in the season too.

  • DannerPerea

    This expert is picking IU over KY in the rematch of the season.

  • CH

    Sorry for off the subject but hey ITH is there a team in the tourney other than the Hoosiers that can say they beat two #1 seeds and a #2seed. (Sorry if this was previously answered.

  • Kelin Blab

    First let me say this is why I love ITH. You can sit and listen to the talking heads as to why NMSU is great, they are all 8 feet tall, and outrebound teams by 40…….give me some good stats, personnel, match ups etc and let me decide how this game will play out…..

    Having said that……

    + If they guard the three well, that spells a strong game for Cody and Christian if they play inside out.

    + IU can rebound too by the way.

    + Victor and Will, on this national stage will be a coming out party I believe. They don’t shy away from big games.

    + Freshmen PG for NMS is interesting.

    + We need a strong two headed monster in Elston and Pritch.

  • Kelin Blab

    First let me say this is why I love ITH. You can sit and listen to the talking heads as to why NMSU is great, they are all 8 feet tall, and outrebound teams by 40…….give me some good stats, personnel, match ups etc and let me decide how this game will play out…..

    Having said that……

    + If they guard the three well, that spells a strong game for Cody and Christian if they play inside out.

    + IU can rebound too by the way.

    + Victor and Will, on this national stage will be a coming out party I believe. They don’t shy away from big games.

    + Freshmen PG for NMS is interesting.

    + We need a strong two headed monster in Elston and Pritch.

  • SCHoosier

    Again..my only concern is ball handling should Hulls get in foul trouble or anytime he goes to the bench. More important in half court than transition where IU can play wide open….but a concern none the less given Abell inexperience and VO’s bad decisions with the ball. IU should be able to handle these guys..but not without a great defensive and rebounding effort…and not handoing them the ball on TO’s

  • HoosierPat

    Interesting to look at things from the other side.  It says “it would be extremely helpful if NMSU knocks down five or six 3s as well.”  They better hope Roth or Jordy doesn’t do that on their own.

  • HoosierPat

    I think as long as we hold McKines in check, IU should win this one without much of a problem.  However, this year’s Hoosiers have been inconsistent at times, but if the Indiana team with fire and passion shows up to play, this is a win.

  • Kenneth234

    I don’t have any concerns in the ball handling department against N.Mexico St. at all.  I realize that Oladipo does have the tendency to go to fast on his drives, but Oladipo at 80% pace will blow by every defender on NMState with ease.  So once he realizes how much of an advantage he actually will have, he can hopefully play a little more under control because they are not quick against the dribble and their big guys are simply to slow to rotate and get position against him. 

  • jermhoosierfan

    The ball handling is a concern.  When they went through their little swoon in January, the main culprit was turnovers especially against Nebraska in the last 10 minutes.  It is and should be a concern when you give the opponent extra possessions without getting any points yourself.  That is my main concern with this team.  If they come out with intensity and keep the turnovers in check, they can hang with anyone in the country.

  • SCHoosier

    can you believe the two comebacks last night..I thought Iona looked like national champion..then totally folded in the second half. Live by the 3 andj die by it.And how about Syracuse getting a screw job on their center being declared ineligible..I mean..whatever..but hte powers that be could have done it earlier and not messed up the brackets:) Go Hoosiers.

  • deedubbadoo

    All I know is I’m flying out to Vegas in about 8 hours, and with IU -6 against New Mexico State, that’s a nice way to start off the weekend.  Oh and let us not forget, +3500 to win the whole thing.

  • deedubbadoo

    All I know is I’m flying out to Vegas in about 8 hours, and with IU -6 against New Mexico State, that’s a nice way to start off the weekend.  Oh and let us not forget, +3500 to win the whole thing.

  • Hardrock

    Im surprised someone hasnt complained about their mascot?  A cowboy with twins guys pulled! It sad but in to days society the ACLU will be after them shortly! 

  • Benhyoung14

    The reason that all the ‘experts’ are picking IU to lose is so they can talk about how much of a surprise IU is this year. 
    New Mexico St’s RPI is 64 and their SOS is
    116. Kenpom has them at 63.  I think Illinois could beat this team. 
    Those rebounds won’t come as easy as they did during the regular
    season.  If CWat crashes the boards, and VO uses his athleticism then I
    think IU wins easly. IMO, this is a very good match up for IU.  They
    shoot .667 from the free throw line and .327 from three, and we have a
    slight margin on turnovers.  Everything else is pretty even, but that is
    against an SOS of 116.  All of those would be a lot worse if they
    played IU’s schedule.  I say play a 2 – 3 zone, make them chuck it from
    3.  The only problem might be getting out rebounded.  If it is then
    switch back and forth between man to man and zone.  Square the shoulders
    and don’t foul.  They average 30 free throws a game.  Their guards
    don’t worry me.  Just beat them to the rim, and that free throw number
    goes down.

  • Benhyoung14

    The reason that all the ‘experts’ are picking IU to lose is so they can talk about how much of a surprise IU is this year. 
    New Mexico St’s RPI is 64 and their SOS is
    116. Kenpom has them at 63.  I think Illinois could beat this team. 
    Those rebounds won’t come as easy as they did during the regular
    season.  If CWat crashes the boards, and VO uses his athleticism then I
    think IU wins easly. IMO, this is a very good match up for IU.  They
    shoot .667 from the free throw line and .327 from three, and we have a
    slight margin on turnovers.  Everything else is pretty even, but that is
    against an SOS of 116.  All of those would be a lot worse if they
    played IU’s schedule.  I say play a 2 – 3 zone, make them chuck it from
    3.  The only problem might be getting out rebounded.  If it is then
    switch back and forth between man to man and zone.  Square the shoulders
    and don’t foul.  They average 30 free throws a game.  Their guards
    don’t worry me.  Just beat them to the rim, and that free throw number
    goes down.

  • Walt

    Hoosiers cannot worry about being “cool”. Show their cool by getting out there and playing like their hair is on fire.  It is one and done or one and move on. When we play with abandon we do well.  Cannot let them overachieve, as many do in this tournament. Got a little flavor of NMSt from the link posted by KevOMG and DC Hoosier. Thanks.

  • Kenneth234

    I disagree with playing the zone.  I think you man up and play down low in the post.  It is much easier to give the gaurds a cushion and try to deny their forwards and center from establishing position in the man defense.  I think doing that would solve all of your concerns because against their gaurds we can go under all their screens and dare their gaurds to shoot, take away the gaurds from penatrating, and find a man to box out to keep them off the glass.  Plus, I don’t like the idea of our team playing zone for long stretches because it sometimes does make us a little less focused on both ends of the court.  I just think we need to keep everyone dialed in and there is no way that NMSt can play with us if the refs call a fair game.

  • calbert40

     We all know that VO can be erratic with the ball.  That said, I don’t think they will be able to stop him from penetrating.  He is too athletic for them, and I believe VO has another Purdue game.

    VO would be my Pick to Click, btw.

  • calbert40

     I think we will run a 2-3 probably 5-10 defensive possessions just to make them worry about it.  But M2M is the way to go.

    I used to pitch, and the old saying for pitchers is that you make the hitter beat you on your best pitch.  Man to Man.  That’s our best. 

  • IUeconAlum

    Just win and make it the sweet 16. I’d like to able to go to a NCAA game in Atlanta this year and cheer for them. Portland, OR?? You got to be kidding me. 

  • IUeconAlum

    Just win and make it the sweet 16. I’d like to able to go to a NCAA game in Atlanta this year and cheer for them. Portland, OR?? You got to be kidding me. 

  • WiscHoosier

     Since the intro of the 3 pt line, offensive efficiency has been a bigger indicator of NCAA advantage than defensive efficiencies. IU holds a huge advantage here and I think the game will start with high energy on both sides where players like Olidipo, Sheehey and Zellers will cause match up problems, esp as they crash five players to the rim and IU beats them down the court in the front court.

    In 28 years the 4th seed has won 79% of the time, meaning one a year and I am picking UL because of their offensive efficiency (deficiency) and I think Pitino knows it and will gamble with a full court press against a up tempo team.

    I too have IU beating UK in the Sweet 16.

  • Jdunn

    you guys are too scared of the refs, youll never stop McKines, but you guys have an awsome team! May the best team win and advance.! If you beat us, you can take out anyone. We are a small under-rated school,but we play good B-ball. I think each teams advatages will negate the others’ and we should have a great close game! good luck!