The four factors: Kentucky

  • 12/12/2010 4:01 pm in

For those unfamiliar, here’s some background on the four factors to winning: Established by Dean Oliver, the four factors are building blocks for Ken Pomeroy’s efficiency formula. It’s important to mention, as noted by Stat Sheet, that the factors are not weighted equally. The best way to weight the numbers is as follows: shooting (40 percent), taking care of the ball (25 percent), offensive rebounding (20 percent) and getting to the line (15 percent).

Here’s a recap of the four factors in Saturdays’s 81-62 loss at Kentucky:

Effective field goal percentage (FGM + 0.5*3PM)/FGA): The bright spot here from the IU perspective is that Kentucky had its worst performance of the season in eFG percentage. Credit the Hoosier defense for making that happen. The Wildcats were able to overcome their woeful shooting performance due to offensive rebounding percentage/second chance points and free throw rate, which we’ll dive into later.

Turnover percentage (Turnovers divided by possessions): For as well as IU locked down in its half court defense, the Hoosiers were unable to turn Kentucky over. The Wildcats posted a season-best 8.6 turnover percentage and as of Sunday, are in the top five nationally in this category. In both of IU’s losses, opponents have posted a turnover percentage under 10. Another thing worth mentioning here is that IU’s turnover percentage of 20 is the second-highest for an opponent against Kentucky this season. Only Oklahoma (20.2) fared worse.

Offensive rebounding percentage (Offensive rebounds divided by (OR + DR): Tom Crean talked about second chance points in his postgame presser and this statistic was a huge factor in the outcome of this game. IU allowed nearly a 40 percent offensive rebounding percentage and only came up with 18.2 percent of the offensive boards on the other end. Kentucky absolutely dominated the glass.

Free throw rate (Free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted): At first glance, the free throws attempted by Kentucky stick out like a sore thumb, but statistically the Hoosiers are one of the worst teams in the country (314th through yesterday’s games) at allowing opponents to get to the line. Sure, the numbers are a bit skewed from being on the road (and IU’s season-low 29.6 percent free throw rate tells the story there), but it’s tough to win against good teams when the discrepancy is this high.

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  • JerryCT

    So I guess we are Jekyl & Hyde on defense. On one hand we defended shooters but in the other hand cannot turnover our opponents.

    Is it time for CTC to capitalize on depth and maybe throw in some trapping defenses and full court pressing ? I am actually baffled as to why this has not emerged given our desire to play up tempo and the number of wings we can throw at the problem