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Checking in on Kentucky’s Pomeroy Rankings

by in Commentary | December 11th, 2009

Yes, Kentucky is a very talented team, more talented than the Hoosiers. Yes, they’re undefeated against a difficult schedule thus far. Yes, a loss is the likely outcome for IU on Saturday. Yet, there’s at least one area that the Wildcats are weak in, an area the Hoosiers would be wise to exploit. Also, in Ken Pomeroy’s latest rankings, Kentucky only ranks 54th in the country, which is shocking if you look at its No. 4 ranking in the AP Top 25 Poll and its win-loss record against that tough schedule.

Let’s take a look at some of this:

ScreenHunter_01 Dec. 11 12.32

As you can see, IU has done a respectable job this year at creating turnovers — they’re in the top 50 in the country in defensive turnover percentage. Meanwhile, Kentucky is one of the worst teams in the country in offensive turnover percentage. At 291th, only 56 DI teams are turning over the ball at a higher percentage. And even though IU’s turnover percentage is poor, UK’s defensive turnover percentage doesn’t jump out at you. As we saw against Pitt, winning the turnover game can be beneficial for this squad.

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Know Thy Opponent: Kentucky Wildcats

by in Opponents | December 10th, 2009

UK Basketball media day

Some freshmen live up to the hype while others struggle to adjust to the speed and rigors of college basketball. And every so often, a special talent comes along who not only meets expectations, but shatters them. Through eight games of what is sure to be his only season in Lexington, John Wall is that special talent.

His numbers are remarkable: 19.0 ppg (56% FG), 7.0 apg, 3.8 rpg and 3 spg. But more importantly, Wall is the primary reason that Kentucky basketball has transformed from an N.I.T. team last season to 9-0 and No. 4 in the nation this season.

After the Billy Gillispie experiment failed miserably, UK Athletic Director Mitch Barnhart needed a hire that would instantly put the program back at the forefront nationally. Recruits were no longer viewing Kentucky as a top tier destination. Fans were restless with the lack of NCAA Tournament success since the program’s last championship in 1998 under Tubby Smith. So Barnhart, with his job likely on the line if he didn’t make the right hire, went to Memphis and hired John Calipari.

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Pick to Click: Kentucky

by in Pick to Click | December 10th, 2009

Get in your picks before 11:45 am ET on Saturday. Remember, please state your selection first thing in your comment. Overriding PTC principles are here and the latest standings are here. Good luck.

A closer look at the four factors and Pittsburgh

by in Commentary | December 9th, 2009

Since we did an in-depth analysis of the four factors prior to the IU-Pittsburgh game, it’s only appropriate to look at how each of the factors played out on Tuesday night. As you can see below, with the exception of offensive rebounding percentage, Indiana dominated Pitt:

Free throw rate: The one factor that jumps out immediately is free throw rate. Indiana made a remarkable leap in this stat compared to the Maryland game (31.4%). The fact that it came in a game away from Assembly Hall is even more impressive. Not only did the Hoosiers get to the line at a much higher rate than Pittsburgh, they shot about nine percent higher than their season average. As Pitt coach Jamie Dixon said afterward, it’s tough to win when you’re outscored by 13 at the foul line.

Turnover percentage: With the exception of the Boston game, this was IU’s best performance of the season for this stat. And they did it against a program that’s known for toughness and playing solid defense. If not for five turnovers in the final six minutes during Pitt’s run, this number would have been even lower. Nonetheless, it was an excellent showing in terms of taking care of the ball.

Effective field goal percentage: This was Pittsburgh’s worse showing to-date for eFG% and for Indiana, it was their best performance against a major-conference opponent. (43.4% against Ole Miss and 37.9% against Maryland.) For the record, IU’s 45.4 eFG% isn’t particularly great and 37.1% from Pitt is dreadful.

Offensive rebounding percentage: This is a stat in which most of us thought Pittsburgh would have the biggest advantage going in, but despite their 19 offensive rebounds, they scored just 14 second chance points.

Good, Bad and Ugly: Pitt

by in Good Bad Ugly | December 9th, 2009

THE GOOD: A BIG WIN, SOME CONSISTENT PLAY.

First, the big picture: It got a little too close for comfort at the end of the game, and it took longer than some IU fans would have liked, but the Hoosiers finally have a signature win under Tom Crean. Yes, Pitt isn’t at full strength. Yes, they are projected to finish in the bottom half of the Big East this year. But this was still a team that came in to the game 7-1, and was favored to win the game on a court they’re far more comfortable with than IU. Congrats are also in order to Tom Crean, who notched his 200th career win with the victory.

The story of this one? IU outworked and out-hustled Pitt the whole night. They deserved to win this game. Their zone was active around the arc; they closed in quick on open shooters. But, the Hoosiers also seemed to have caught Pitt at the right time: they only scored 47 points Friday in a win, and tonight their offensive woes continued. Sure, IU’s D deserves some credit, but Pitt only shot 31.4 percent from the floor tonight. They were sloppy at points, and had 15 turnovers on the evening. It’s clear their halfcourt game is a work in progress right now, and the Hoosiers capitalized on it. They had a plan, and executed it.

Big ups to Verdell Jones. He had 20 points on the night, and hit some key shots. Sometimes Jones get lost in the shuffle when we talk about Maurice Creek and Christian Watford being able to score in bunches, but when Jones in on, when he’s pulling some crafty moves out of his pockets like he did tonight, he’s a joy to watch.

The Hoosiers only had 12 turnovers tonight, and they finally shot well as they hit 24-of-54 shots from the floor for 44.4 percent. (They were only 1-of-7 from three-point land, though.) Good things happen when you shoot a respectable percentage from the field and take care of the ball. They dominated in the paint, too: 40 points for them, while Pitt managed half that at 20. And they were able to dominate the free-throw game as well: the Hoosiers converted on 25 of their 34 attempts, good for 73.5 percent. Pitt had 17 foul shots on the night, and converted 12 of them.

This was the type of display IU fans were hoping to see in Puerto Rico and against Maryland, but didn’t get. If the Hoosiers can build off this win and the confidence they’ve gained from it, they should be able to stay competitive in Big Ten play, and maybe even surprise a bit.

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Hoosiers beat Pitt in the Garden for Crean’s 200th win

by in Recaps | December 9th, 2009

Indiana entered Madison Square Garden on Tuesday night a decided underdog against Pittsburgh.

They left with a surprising and convincing 74-64 victory, the most impressive win to date of the Tom Crean era. It was the 200th career victory for the second year coach.

The Hoosiers (4-4) controlled the paint and the pace and led by as many as 18 before fighting off a late Pitt rally in the Jimmy V Classic.

“From the nine minute mark on, they never, ever wavered when it came to how they were talking to each other in the sense of finishing,” Crean said. “It was all about defense. I could have not talked offense those last nine minutes and I think they still would have been fine because they were so locked in to defending.”

Indiana held Pitt to just 31 percent shooting and outscored the Panthers 40-20 in the paint.

Verdell Jones scored 20 points to lead IU and Christian Watford added 18 points, including 10 of 13 from the foul line. Indiana hit 25 of 34 free throws.

The Hoosiers began to pull away near the midway point of the second half. After Pitt cut the lead to 41-37 on a Brad Wanamaker layup, Indiana answered with seven straight points over a four-minute stretch.

The run was capped by a Devan Dumes three-pointer, which gave IU its first double-digit lead with 11:06 remaining. It was Indiana’s only three-pointer in the game.

“We get some incredible teachable moments out of a win,” Crean said. “They needed something to go right, that they can hang their hat on. We needed this.”

Pittsburgh, which out-rebounded Indiana 45-39, was led by a career-high 25 points from Ashton Gibbs. Wanamaker added 18 points.

Pick to Click winner: Jones

Bob Knight in attendance: The Hall of Fame coach worked the pre-game and post-game for ESPN and watched the Hoosiers in-person for the first time since 2000.

Watford on the crowd in the Garden: “I didn’t see many Pitt fans. When I looked around, I saw our fans, Hoosier nation.”

Jones on holding onto the lead: “Leadership really came into it. Devan (Dumes) did a great job, behind the scenes, of calming us down. It was a big game, nationally televised game, we knew that and we really wanted to win. Our hunger really showed.”

Indiana at Madison Square Garden: Indiana moved to 12-8 all-time at MSG. It was IU’s first win in the venue since 1996, when the Hoosiers beat Duke 85-69 in the Preseason NIT.

Jamie Dixon on IU’s performance: “I think they did a good job of taking us off the dribble. They got some scores inside from the big guys. They got to the free-throw line. They get to the free-throw line a lot but they also foul a lot and put guys on the free-throw line. Our goal was to get to the free-throw line. They outscored us by 13 from the free-throw line and they outscored us by 10. When you look at the stats of their opponents, their opponents are out-shooting them at the free-throw line and we didn’t do that tonight. The zone and how they defended early put us in that situation.”

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