Comments on: Report: Moses Morgan commits to DePaul

By: GFDave

GFDave — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 02:59:44 +0000

First, having the higher shooting percentage from a comparable distance makes you the better shooter. Anybody who knows anything about basketball knows that there are no style points awarded for the most technically perfect stroke. The ball goes in--you're good, the ball doesn't go in--you're not.

Second, all statisticians, pollsters and other data centric professionals know that anomalous data has skewing effects. This data is routinely sought out and discarded for it can have the effect of masking what really is going on. Roth's Ohio State performance of 9-11 is clearly anomalous. In no other game did he hit as high a percentage or attempt as many shots. People who know about basketball call this "getting hot".

On the other hand, Dumas' 6-10 on 3's is probably not an outlier (there are statistical tests for this). While 10 was his highest number of shot attempts he also had a game with 9 attempts and two games with 8 and two more with 7. So the 10 attempts fits with the whole pattern.

I suggest that his 60% completion for the game also fits the pattern. He shot 57% in both of the games where he attempted 7 shots. In another game he shot 5-5 from 3 point territory. The worst game, among those where he took the most shots, was 4-9.

But even if we did throw this 6-10 game out too, the impact on Dumas' percentage would be less than the negative effect on Roth for throwing his 9-11 out.

I rest my case on the facts. Devan Dumas was, however slightly, the best 3 point shooter on the team last year.

By: stevealford

stevealford — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 00:55:39 +0000

First off you can't just discard games. That makes no sense. I could say the same thing that if you take away Dumes 6 for 10 at NW than Roth's numbers are better. There numbers were very similar, Roth as a Freshman and Dumes as a Junior. Anybody who knows anything about IU basketball knows that Roth has a better stroke from behind the arc than Dumes.

By: GFDave

GFDave — Thu, 24 Sep 2009 00:17:44 +0000

Devan Dumas was just barely better from the 3 point line, he and Roth had almost identical takes and makes. If you discard the game that Roth just went off in, which is statistically the anomaly, then you could make the case that Dumas was, if not better, certainly more consistent.

By: IU Mike

IU Mike — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 23:20:37 +0000

Could not agree with you more Alex and while he is speaking of freedom if he doesn't like the way this site is ran then he is FREE to leave & not come back, under any false name. Maybe he should start his own site so that all of his kind have a place to go & make their garbage comments.

Nuff said, the way you run YOUR site is just fine with me.

By: tberry

tberry — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:56:08 +0000

I totally agree and think that moderators should look at more than just instgation, etc. I like this board becasue it sticks to the subject (most of the time) and has inteigent basketball thought.

Not to name names but I find on the IDS board, the first two or three post have to do with basketball but from there is disintegrates into posters that just like to read their own use of big and meaningless oratory.

By: tberry

tberry — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:43:34 +0000

I'm rather surprised but not shocked. Morgan wasn't rated very high and when he saw our interest and apparent “in” with better (KI?) players, probably thought he would have a better chance of playing and success at another school.

It is now looking like those “better players” are not as interested in IU as we all hoped and thought. It will be interesting to see how Coach Crean handles this.

By: Bryan

Bryan — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:43:30 +0000

I can't say I've much to add to the discussion that's not already been said – if Jody Demling is right, and we never really offered this kid, then I can't say it's that much of a loss. IU doesn't want a rep of not being hospitable to former players or their kids, and not just because one of them might be a blue chip recruit one day. That said, I'm surprised that Moses picked DePaul. I can't see that program digging out of the ditch they're in until they swallow their pride and leave the Big East.

By: stevealford

stevealford — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 21:38:11 +0000

I would be disappointed if Roth were to transfer, which I don't believe he will. He is our best shooter. Now that we have guys to set him up (such as Hulls) he will be a very valuable piece. We will also need him when teams play zone against us. I don't understand all the transfer talk with him.

By: because it's Indiana

because it's Indiana — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 20:42:09 +0000

Thanks Alex, I missed his replies, but I'm sure they were brilliant. Talk about a waste of carbon and oxygen. Now we can get back to the good stuff. I LOVE the high standards on this site! I tell everyone I know about it.

By: GFDave

GFDave — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 19:59:44 +0000

First, having the higher shooting percentage from a comparable distance makes you the better shooter. Anybody who knows anything about basketball knows that there are no style points awarded for the most technically perfect stroke. The ball goes in--you're good, the ball doesn't go in--you're not.

Second, all statisticians, pollsters and other data centric professionals know that anomalous data has skewing effects. This data is routinely sought out and discarded for it can have the effect of masking what really is going on. Roth's Ohio State performance of 9-11 is clearly anomalous. In no other game did he hit as high a percentage or attempt as many shots.

On the other hand, Dumas' 6-10 on 3's is probably not an outlier (there are statistical tests for this). While 10 was his highest number of shot attempts he also had a game with 9 attempts and two games with 8 and two more with 7. So the 10 attempts fits with the whole pattern.

I suggest that his 60% completion for the game also fits the pattern. He shot 57% in both of the games where he attempted 7 shots. In another game he shot 5-5 from 3 point territory. The worst game, among those where he took the most shots, was 4-9.

I rest my case on the facts.