Eric Gordon: Perception vs. reality

by Ryan Corazza in Media | March 11th, 2008

There seems to exist two schools of thought on Eric Gordon. The first comes from the national pundits and talking heads: Eric Gordon is an excellent combo guard, one with unlimited range, a sure lottery pick. (He is, after all, the NBA’s next big star.)

But there’s the other school of thought, held most closely by IU fans that have watched Gordon the past few months. It takes all the good stuff into account but splashes in the fact that he’s a turnover machine, a poor ball handler who is erratic and oftentimes out of control when he drives to the hoop. Add that to the fact he’s in an horrific shooting slump — Gordon’s currently a woeful 10 of his last 50 (!!!) from behind the three-point line) and you can’t help but think there’s more than a few flaws in Gordon’s game, ones people that are only getting a cursory view of Gordon are missing. (However, a shooting slump is just that: a slump. If there’s one thing I’m confident in about Gordon’s game, it’s his long-range jumper. That and his ability to get to the free throw line.)

I also always thought Gordon was head and shoulder’s above USC’s O.J. Mayo. Mayo has to jack up a million shots to get his points. Gordon could shoot eight shots a game and still go 20+ because he gets to the line so much. But after reading David Berri’s win score/eFG analysis of EJ and Mayo, turns out they’re not really all that different.

When we look at Gordon across these games, we do see that his woeful shooting on Sunday was an anomaly. Gordon’s adjusted field goal percentage is 54.2%, which is quite good.

Let me put Gordon’s shooting in perspective. The other top shooting guard who is expected to be available in the NBA draft is O.J. Mayo of USC. Mayo’s adjusted field goal percentage is 53.0%, and again, that’s quite good. Despite this performance, though, here is how Chad Ford describes Mayo at ESPN.com.

It’s clear Mayo’s going to be a great NBA scorer … but will he give a team anything else?

When we compare Gordon and Mayo we see that the latter produces more – on a per-minute basis – rebounds, assists, and steals. Mayo also commits fewer turnovers. In sum, if we are concerned that Mayo isn’t going to give anything beyond scoring, shouldn’t we have the same concern about Gordon? And yet, in the mock drafts I have seen, Gordon is consistently rated as the better prospect (and Ford describes Gordon as a “do-it-all combo guard that is already lighting up the box score”)

And later, when comparing Gordon and Mayo to NBA players:

When we turn to Win Score – a metric that can tell us something about lighting up a box score — we see little reason to be optimistic about Gordon or Mayo. Entering Sunday’s action, Gordon had posted a 6.7 Win Score per 40 minutes (WS40) played. Mayo has a mark of 6.0. When we look at all shooting guards drafted out of college between 1991 and 2006 (and who played at least some significant minutes in the NBA), we see an average WS40 of 8.7 the last year the player played college basketball. In other words, Gordon and Mayo are far below average.

To put “far below average” in perspective, here are the shooting guards with a WS40 below 7.0 (again from 1991 to 2006): Kareem Rush, Kirk Snyder, Toby Bailey, Tony Dumas, Lawrence Moten, Courtney Alexander, Ed Gray, DeJuan Wheat, Chris Smith, Jimmy King, Felipe Lopez, Larry Hughes, and Jamal Crawford.

Now, this is but one metric, but I think it’s an effective tool in solidifying some of our gripes and qualms about the guy. Is Gordon the best freshman in the Big Ten? Yes. Is he the best freshman in the country? Debatable. (I’d go with Michael Beasley.) Is he going to be a lottery pick? Most likely. Could he stand another year at IU, one in which a new coach will reign him in (something Sampson, and now Dakich, refuse to do), thus cutting down his turnovers and making him an overall more effective basketball player? Absolutely.

But he’ll go pro. And I don’t blame him in the least. He’s immensely talented and he should go get his money while he can. I just very badly want him to succeed at the next level. After watching him play this Big Ten season and looking at his Win Score comparisons, I’m worried he won’t. (Not to mention, undersized shooting guards aren’t really the norm in the NBA.)

Am I crazy here? Does this seems like a sound base of logic to anyone else? Get it poppin’ in the comments, friends.

Tags: Eric Gordon

Patrick

He's not ready. You can't convince — or particularly fault — this kid for wanting to get the money while he can. The lifespan of a professional athlete is relatively short and you can't blame him for cashing in on how good everyone thinks he is. That being said, he's not ready for the NBA and won't make a particularly good player. As mentioned in the post, he's horrifically turnover prone, is a streaky shooter, is strong off the dribble but not a particularly great passer. The post mentioned how many of his points come at the free throw line. While Gordon does get to the line a lot, he has a tendency to complain an awful lot about calls (you know the face IU fans — furrowed brow, mouthpiece out) and that won't play in the NBA as a rookie. You don't get those calls, you have to earn them. I wonder what will happen to his offensive production when he's not at the free throw line. Moreover, I've yet to see Gordon really take over a game the way Carmelo Anthony did or even the way Michael Beasley has this season. I'm not throwing millions of dollars at a kid as a lottery pick who hasn't shown the ability to be a gamechanger.

You'd have to figure that he's a little small to play two guard in the NBA and doesn't have what you'd consider to be stereotypical point guard attributes. Can you imagine E.J. being matched up against Chris Paul or Deron Williams or Steve Nash? Yeah, me either.

patrickdonohue.freedomblogging.com

Kirk Haston

I agree with everything you've pointed out but it still just blows my mind that neither Sampson nor Dakich have taken the time to show EJ that he travels everytime he gets the ball. There's no doubt that he can get to the free throw line but half the time he's driving to the bucket, he takes that huge step before he even dribbles. As a coach, I don't see how you can't take note of the fact that he gets that called at least 2-3 times a game. That may never get called in the NBA but for now while he's still a Hoosier I'd like to see that get corrected. I think it bring a little more control to his overall game - it seems like when he's in that "I'm getting to the free-throw line on this drive" mode that he gets a little out of control and it usually starts with that travel.

All in all, I think he will adjust to the NBA but it will take a couple of years. Those two years he could be figuring out how to further dominate the Big 10 and the NCAA.

IU4Life

I still want to thank EJ for being a Hoosier.....he has done more than you think for IU. Does he have flaws, yes. Is he ready for the pros, no. Has he played a huge role for a team that has 25 wins going into the btt, yes. He is frustrating at times due to how good we know he can be. Without the big ten fresh of the year we are much different. without EJ, DJ gets double teamed constantly and isn't nearly the player he has been for us. DJ claims himself that "EJ is the second part of the best duo in the league and that he is the best guard in America". Whatever DJ says, i agree with. Everyone needs to get over EJ and support him for what he has done for us. its like he is hated by two teams now.

Brad

It always bothers me when GM's draft a prospect rather than a player. Maybe I'm biased because I would watch the college game over the Association any day. With that said though, I don't like seeing players get paid millions of dollars to ride the pine for several years until they've developed enough in practice or the Developmental League to finally earn their millions. I know EJ will make a ton of money next year. I don't fault him for taking it. However, he's not going to get much playing time for the first couple of years. If he stays at IU for one more year, he can fix his TO problem, learn how to pass the ball, develop a pull up jumper and learn when to use it rather than commit a charge. If he does these things, he'll be #1 overall rather than top 10. The money will be even better and he'll be good enough to get regular playing time (if not starting) right away.

I know he'll go after this year. The money is too tempting and I can't blame him for that. Just saying.

IndianaJoe

Brad, completely agree. What people don't realize is that it doesn't matter "if you're ready for the NBA." NBA scouts look at how good somebody is going to be in the future not now. Look at a lot of good college players that averaged a ton of points in college, and they are doing nothing in the NBA. JJ Redick comes to mind and there are many others. The kid's head is already in the NBA. We know one thing that he's not going to get called for traveling every 2 possessions. I don't know if everybody is knocking his very flawed game just for the sake that they want him back next year or what. EJ is gone. He can work on his game next year getting paid a few million dollars rather than stay at IU when we don't even know who are coach is going to be and not get paid. I hate the NBA. I hate IU's NBA "dribble and drive" offense. I'm finding myself much easier to watch Purdue play.

Tom

EJ will be a better pro than college player because he will not be double teamed, his assists will go up due to higher quality teammates, and he will score off breaks.Obviously, his turnovers must decrease.

JD

You are not crazy. I love Gordon, and that is why it pains me to say he seems like Bracey Wright, but he can get to the line.

Sherron Wilkersona

Bracey Wright, ah man, thats just wrong man, has it gotten to that point? I guess so but at least he doesn't have a bad tattoo that says the colony

CoveyDale

or "Chosen One"

Tom Coverdale IU Hero

the only thing bracey wright was chosen to be was a decent college player armon basset is better then him right now

Jack Schneider

Complaining about EJ and dissecting his game are pointless because we all know he'll be gone after this season. We should be thankful he gave us on year rather than helping Illinois beat our butts. Still, I believe it's worth noting that the IU offense hasn't helped EJ; it has given him free range but hasn't taught him anything. Yes, he's the top scorer in the Big Ten, but he gets nearly all of his points on his own: 3-point shots or drives to the basket. How many baskets has gotten off screens or cuts to the hoop? Very few. I suspect EJ is very dissatisfied with his IU experience and is anxious to be on his way to the NBA, even though he has an awful lot to learn and won't reach his pro potential for a number of years.

Sherron Wilkerson

10 for his last 50? Wow! to quote Chuck Barkley, thats horrible. I knew he was in a slump but Jesus thats bad

what?

I'm glad your metrics help you understand the game better, but as someone that has watched Gordon for five years now, though, understand this: He has a hairline fracture in his wrist, that kinda hurts. He's still playing and his NBA career will be fantastic barring injury. Hold this comment in your mind for three years and then look back at the absurdness of any claim that he's a turnover machine or one (or two)-dimensional.

Yes, I too wish he was better at going 1-on-four while trying to save IU's asses in our horse***t offense, but alas, he is not. Once's he's healthy and not facing so much defensive attention because he's in a better scheme and surrounded by guys that can't be left alone I assure you he will do quite well. Could he use another year of college? That's a dumb question, who couldn't benefit from another year of seasoning and experience...assuming they don't get hurt....oh EJ already did. Next year it could be his knee.

kelin

I think EJ has hit somewhat of a wall because how hard he has to work to get shots and the number of minutes he plays....which is all a reflection of a HORRIBLE offensive coach like KS was and is. EJ rarely gets easy transition shots because we don't fast break or force the tempo and he rarely comes off screens....

Hence....he is struggling with the jumpshot right now because of some fatigue. Good job KS way to continue to plague this team.

Jerry

"The definition of Insanity is repeating the same thing over and over and expecting a different result" .............A Einstein

I am curious as to whether IU fans think :

1. We need to make some changes in the B10 tournament and NCAA or whether we continue as is ?

2. If you think changes then what would they be ?

This section is about Gordon and I think that is a good place to start.

Kelin , you are pretty smart what's your take ?

steve

This is the best post and most accurate of any on here. Great obsevation kelin! I am just sick and tired of everyone on here saying that EJ is not as good as they first thought. IU's current offense is not for EJ. The worst part of all this is that our coaching staff has failed to utilize one of the best freshman in the country. A major part of this comes down to ellis and crawford. If you have went to any games this year you can see it in the warm-ups as well as the game that elis and crawford have a problem with EJ.

Jerry

Everybody's made good points with which I agree. It would be interesting however to see these analystical stats applied to all possible high draft choices at the guard position and not just these 2 freshmen. If I were a GM and knowing this is a business first and foremost I would not be looking for a project but rather a more proven guy with more game NOW.

As for freshmen I would like to see the same stats for Jerryd Bayless who CAN and DOES take over games. I only saw him twice on tv but each time he scored 30+ with nearly double figures in asst's, rebs and several steals.

BrianK

As would I but NBA GM's dont't think like that anymore. The draft is all about what the player might do in a couple years. It's changed the past 10 years since highschoolers started comingin so much more. They don't have to have such a standout year or years to get a high draft selection like they used to. They just have to see that the player seems like he will be able to learn and grow well.

kelin

Jerry, I think both of them are fine..........Although I do like a little of how the women do their tourney....where I think they have a home game of some sort...I think.....that is for high seeds only, so it would exclude IU...

I agree with you on bayless, but he gets what EJ doesn't, good offensive sets, and open court basketball on occasion. Oh and actually coaching where a player improves.

How does everyone feel about Jordan Crawford taking over for EJ next year?

Tom Coverdale IU Hero

I love the idea of Mr. Crawford taking over i think he is smarter with the ball his turnover come off of not catching passes and dribbling off his foot and stuff just weird stuff he doesnt try and fit passes in where they cant be fit and can score just as well

Jerry

I really like Crawford too. He has good body control, seems to try to do what he is asked to do and best of all he has that Magic Johnson "half smirk half smile" when he makes a play either a good one or a bad one. He CARES !

I keep suspecting his flair for the game could bloom into something very entertaining. Maybe even as good as Tom Coverdale .

BTOWN40

Gordon will be just fine in the NBA. He will in my estimation be a Ben Gordon typwype of player from the Bulls. I really believe the wrist has hampered him more than he lets on. I know the turnovers frustrate us, but we wouldn't be near as good without him and DJ should give him a big kiss, because he has helped raise his draft status. I blame IU's coaching staff and lack of offensive scheme. It's as if they tell him to just shoot it and that's our offense. If Gordon got his points within a good offensive set he would drop his turnovers in half and boost his scoring and shooting percentage.. He will be fine in the NBA. You never know he may like the new coach if we hire one b4 he has to declare for the draft....Gordon may have slipped in the draft and that could get him s to stay so he can go number 1 next year....ya never know

JamesHardy

"It's as if they tell him to just shoot it and that's our offense."

~um...those are almost word for word KS's words after the Illinois game~

McD

This is just IU fan trying to talk themselves into the 1% chance Gordon comes back next season. Statistically, he's not read to go pro. But hell, he's a 19 year old GUARD. Most guys at that position aren't ready after one year (and it's not like Kelvin Sampson or Dan Dakich are gurus to help him develop). And don't forget all the turmoil in the program. The whole team is flat because of this mess. Sorry guys, we got one year from him, but the bigger tragedy is that this season, which could have been IU's best in years, has been shot to hell.

Ben

Get off the kid's back. He juked Illinois to become a hoosier.....that is just awesome. If you want to dog somebody dog.......zeller, randoulph, gardner, McRoberts, May, or any of the other great ball players from Indiana that didn't come to IU....or any other school in the state. I'm glad Eric is a Hoosier!!! I support him 100%! I mean cheaney only average...i believe 17 his freshman year. We all need to start being positive. We have a great kid from INDIANA that chose INDIANA. If all you guys are going to do is dog on him I can see why other kids from Indiana leave.

GO HOOSIERS NO MATTER WHAT!!!!!!!

RICK PITINO IN 08-09!

JamesHardy

call your parole officer...cuz its time for your drug test! Screw Pitino! Bring on Bennett! Time for Tony!!! hasta la vista DD!

JC FLA

I'm a bit taken back by the comments on EJ. I would have thought everyone here would think EJ as a lottery pick and All-NBA in his second or third year. I will agree with just about everyone that he isn't ready for the NBA. I also strongly believe that he will be an average NBA player, maybe a solid sixth man at the earliest in his second or third year in the Association. His game is drive to the basket and get fouled. Yes, he gets to the line but he won't get half of those calls in the NBA and the other half those shots will be four rows into the stands.

I disagree with the argument that once he isn't going one-on-four that his game will flourish is riduculous. That is what the NBA is all about-no set offense and make your own shot.

Tom Coverdale IU Hero

If you watch the NBA you would know they call a foul almost everytime a player drives the lane......and if EJ ends up as an average player in the NBA its going to be because he got injured or never had the oppurtunity but hes going to get the oppurtunity so he is going to be an all star someday

JC FLA

Eric Gordan is the next Jameer Nelson...10.5 points/game, 3 rebounds/game, 9 turnovers/game and an average of 6 of his shots blocked/game.

His numbers this year are impressive but without the help of the Big Ten conference player of the year in DJ White he wouldn't be where he is statisically.

Mike in NC

Mark it down, EJ will go high in the draft and will have a mediocre NBA career.

knasmiley

Mike, I think EVERYBODY associated with scouting players for the NBA, NBA GMs themsleves, heck ANYONE with any sense would disagree with you..............

This kid has ALL the tools, is as quick as any guard in the open court and he can drain it from deep. Once he gets that wrap off of his arm he is going to explode like he did before he hurt his arm.......

I heard IF IU hires the right coach that EJ might come back, that is solid info too for all the doubters, I dont care who told you what..................

RW

I understand the money is crazy and the risk of injury factors a little but I think another year at IU could help Gordon. And with the coaching position up in the air that does not fair well for IU. Still unsure of what if any thing will happen with Greenspan and then at the hearings this summer. But I also thank EJ for coming to Bloomington even if he is one and done. As well as a thank you to the seniors for all the memories! GO HOOSIERS!

JamesHardy

I've got two words for you...Dwayne Wade.

EJ is is most comparible to D-Wade in drivability, defense, finishing at the rim, and scoring punch. With that being said...look how advantageous it was for Wade to stay at Marquette for FOUR years? Could you imagine the pro that EJ could be if he were to solidify his game at the college level instead of riding the pine for a lottery team for the next 4 years? I'm not buying his size as a negative for his pro career. Wade and EJ are basically the same size and Wade was 5th in the league in scoring before the heat shut him down to increase their chances at Beasley. Hopefully, someone MATURE steps in and tells this kid that he's NOT ready for the pro game. Someone needs to show him the results of Wade were caused by refining his game at the college level. He may not need all four years, but he definitely needs one more.

Jerry

Interesting comparison but Wade had natural point guard skills.

I think if we were having beers together I would have used Ben Gordon as the comparison however. Good shot, drives but could not pass until UCONN had injuries and forced him to develop skills at the point. His development at point was rapid and he single handedly won the big east tournament his last year at that position.........................never to return to it however but the experience enhanced his game. It would be good for EJ too

JamesHardy

I can see the Ben Gordon comparisons too...I just think EJ has D-Wade's speed and power going to the rack. EJ has more range than Wade, his range is comparible to that of B. Gordon. It sounds like he's actually a gentle mix of both.

GARY ATKINSON

you just showed what you know about talent--he will be awesome--but he should play college ball another year--and that has nothing to do with talent and everything to do with experience in different situations--he will be a machine in any case

JamesHardy

WELL EXCUSE ME...mr. nostradomus! I bow to your superior stupidity...I mean psychic powers

tacojohn

It's sound logic for sure. And if that list is compiled from college stats (something I'm not entirely clear on), it proves to be a pretty good indicator of who will be good in the pros.

Two things though:
1) The NBA game is different. Specifically in Gordon's case, the spacing is so much wider. He'll have a lot more room to operate on an NBA floor than on a college floor.
2) What we've heard about Gordon for two years now is how coachable he is and how hard he works. I don't think that's going to change once he's in the league.

The Wages of Wins article is a great look at what Gordon's floor is. A Jamal Crawford type who doesn't have a position, can't defend larger guards, and can drop 50 points in a game, or score 5 points on 2-13 shooting. I personally think Gordon can avoid that though.

tberry

Forget all the negative arguments about Gordon leaving. He is gone.

Someone will offer him a lot of money and he, just like you , will take it and run. Better to forget about Gordon.

This year and Gotrdon are almost gone. The future is what we should be looking to.

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